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2021 Betting the Super Bowl Over Under Advice and Predictions

by Jason Radowitz - 1/27/2021

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce

It’s always fun betting which side you think is going to win. But if you are unsure of who might win, you can look at other wagers like the total of the game. Instead of rooting for one team to do well, if you take the over on the game, you can cheer on both teams. Meanwhile, if you like the under, you can root against both teams from scoring.

In Super Bowl 55, we’ve got two fantastic offenses with so much talent. With that, you would’ve thought most of the public would be on the over in this game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs. We’ve got Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs going up against the modern-day Greatest of All Time (GOAT), Tom Brady.

Ninety four percent of the early money is on the under. This number could jump to 55.

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The Super Bowl 55 total already dropped from 57.5 to 56 with sharp early bets on the under. Fifty-six is a lame number. If you can find me a game that finished with a total of 56, you can message me on Twitter. It’ll be hard to find.

Getting a number at 55 or even 55.5 is important because four touchdowns for each team would equal 56 points. Therefore, if we do get eight touchdowns, you’ll cover any number below 56 points.

If you like the under, make sure to grab 56.5 or better because if there are eight touchdowns, you’d still win the under if there were no other scores.

Obviously, this is all hypothetical. We’ll likely see plenty of field goals and maybe even get some missed extra points. However, we are in Tampa Bay for the Super Bowl and likely won’t have wind affecting field goals or game play.

Personally, I like the over. I know that might scare some of you who saw the early money on the under.

If you’d like to bet the over, let this number take a hit and potentially get to 55 before making a wager.

The Chiefs and Buccaneers have ridiculous play makers all around and have two stud quarterbacks who already have wins in Super Bowls in their careers. Combined, Brady and Mahomes have played in 10 Super Bowls and will now combine for 12 after this game. They’re fantastic under the bright lights.

For Brady, this is easily the most talented offense he’s ever had. He can throw to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowkski, Scotty Miller, Cameron Brate, Antonio Brown or even Leonard Fournette and Tyler Johnson. When did he have this in New England?
On the other hand, Kansas City built their team with speed and skill. They’ve got Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, potentially Sammy Watkins, and the most reliable tight end in the league in Travis Kelce. Also, don’t forget their running backs like Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell.

Both offenses are just stacked with talent. Both teams combined to score for more than 1,000 points and allowed less than 850 points combined.

But if you’ve been watching the Chiefs closely, you’d know that the defense started off hot earlier in the season and hasn’t looked quite the same in the second half. Sure, the playoffs are different. Guys are more prepared and amped up for games. But that Chiefs secondary will have trouble defending the Bucs and their receivers.

And if you think the Buccaneers secondary can keep up with the Chiefs receivers, I’ve got news for you. They can’t.

Both teams have been dreadful on defense, with the Chiefs and Buccaneers struggling against the run and tackling. The Bucs have the better pass rush and a secondary that has stepped up more recently.

The Chiefs really don’t have much going for them at all defensively. You can expect Brady to dissect that defense.

Trends to Think About 

The last two Super Bowl games with an AFC West opponent have gone under, including last year’s game between the 49ers and Chiefs. But that only missed by two points. The other game was between the Broncos and Panthers, with the total at 43.5 despite just 34 points scored in total.

The under is also 4-1 in the last five Super Bowls on CBS. This game will also be on CBS. The total is currently the highest it’s been since Super Bowl 51’s 57.5-point total.

When the AFC is favored, the under is 8-4 in the last 12 Super Bowl’s. The Chiefs are currently -3.5 favorites as the AFC team.


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