Betting the Super Bowl Over Under 2020

by Jason Radowitz - 1/21/2020

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes

The Super Bowl is the biggest gambling event of the year, with over $158.5 million wagered legally at Nevada sportsbooks last year. People bet 10 times the amount of money that they would normally bet on a regular game. Many bettors and fans of football love to see touchdowns and plenty of points overall. That's why many bettors will wager on the Over no matter what the number is. The sportsbooks know this and start the Over/Under number much higher than it should be, knowing they'll get bettors to wager money on a higher number. This allows sharp bettors to hammer the under.

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In Super Bowl 54, the Kansas City Chiefs will face off against the San Francisco 49ers in Miami, Florida. The over/under number is currently set at 53, where 71 percent of bets are currently on the over. Of course, after watching the AFC and NFC Championship games, it's clear why. The Chiefs scored 35 points and allowed 24 to the Titans while the 49ers scored 37 points and allowed 20 to the Packers. If you combined the 49ers and Chiefs scores, you would have 72 points. Seventy-two points would clearly win the over/under in the Super Bowl.

However, Super Bowl's don't ever go as planned. That's just how the Super Bowl works. Very good defensive teams have big offensive games and vice versa. Remember it will be the first Super Bowl for both Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo. You can expect nerves to kick in at the beginning of the game before each team gets in a rhythm.

The 2020 Super Bowl LIV will kick off at 6:30 p.m., on Sunday February 2 at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The Chiefs are a -1 favorite with the total set at 53.

The NFL average for points scored in a game was 22.8 points per team, down from 23.3 last season. This could absolutely be due to all of the quarterback changes throughout the season. Just like last season, the AFC watched the Patriots and Chiefs finish a 37-31 game. The Rams also beat the Saints in the NFC Championship game by the score of 26-23.

And do you remember the Super Bowl? The Patriots defeated the Rams, 13-3, in a defensive showdown. Two quality offenses turned to their defenses to try and win the Super Bowl. Last year's Super Bowl opened at the highest posted total in history at 58.5. It finished near 56.5. While this year's over/under is set at 53, it's still a reflection off of the two Championship games.

Here's the early lean and over/under analysis for Super Bowl 54.

The 49ers allowed 4.7 yards per play this season, including the playoffs, tied with the Patriots for the least amount of yards allowed per play this season. This season, Chiefs played the Patriots and won the game, 23-16. Mahomes threw 40 attempts and completed 26 of them for 283 yards passing, along with a touchdown and interception. This was later in the season when the Patriots offense went silent. The over went 10-8 in Chiefs games this season, while the 49ers went 9-8-1 in their games.

San Francisco was second in the NFL with 30.2 points per game, while Kansas City was right behind, averaging 29.7 points this season and coming in third. Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers and Andy Reid of the Chiefs are often debated as some of the best play-callers in the NFL and will now have an extra week to prepare.

In Super Bowl history, the overs are 26-25-1. One trend in particular stands out. When NFC West teams are involved in Super Bowls, the point total tends to go over. However, last year's Super Bowl ended the trend as the Rams scored just three points.

In Super Bowl 43, Pittsburgh played Arizona with the over/under set at 46. The point total reached 50.

In Super Bowl 47, Baltimore battled San Francisco with the over/under set at 48. The point total reached 65.

In Super Bowl 48, Denver took on Seattle with the over/under set at 47.5. The point total reached 51.

In Super Bowl 49, New England played Seattle with the over/under set at 47.5. The point total reached 52.

However, last year's Super Bowl ended the trend as New England took on the Los Angeles Rams with the point total at 56.5. The point total hit just 16.

Nonetheless, in the last seven Super Bowls with the spread set at three or less, the over is 6-2. But when the AFC is favored in Super Bowls, the under is actually 7-4.

Lastly, the under is 2-1 when the over/under hits 55. Now, the number isn't at 55 yet, but with the over getting pounded, you just never know. So, I'll keep that here just in case.

The 49ers are ranked eighth in the NFL in scoring defense with 19.4 points per game during the regular season and gave up 30 points combined in the two playoff games against the Vikings and Packers. Both of these offenses were ranked in the top half of the league offensively during the regular season. The under has also hit in four of the 49ers last five postseason games.

In five of the last seven games, the total has hit the over. Last season, the over didn't work out for bettors. However, with two young future studs at quarterback, there's more optimism this year. Two years ago, the Super Bowl saw a 74-point outburst. The total will continue to rise and will probably go above 55. If the total ever reaches above 55, the under has to be the play. The Super Bowl works in mysterious ways.

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As such, I don't expect this total to go any lower and I wouldn't be surprised if the books ticked it back upwards by kickoff.

Start:	June 11, 2020 @ 10:30 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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Betting the Super Bowl Over Under 2020

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