Betting the Super Bowl Over and Under 2023
The Over/Under is a very popular bet in the NFL, and the Super Bowl is no exception. Its nature is simple and easy to understand. And when prolific offenses or stout defenses meet, there is plenty of money to be made. This year, the total is 50.5, making it the 5th time in the last 7 years the Super Bowl total is 50+ points. The two most prolific offenses square off, as both teams scored 546 points in their 19 games, good for an astonishing 28.7 PPG. While that may push bettors to look at the Over, a stout Philly defense that allowed just 18.8 PPG, good for 4th in the league, may have something to say about that. It should be a tight, high-scoring affair, as both teams will look to cash the Over for the first time in 5 years. The last time the big game went Over the total, the Eagles were in the Super Bowl, when Nick Foles beat Tom Brady and the Patriots 41-33.
This matchup can go one of two ways, and the flow of the game will be a strong indicator where this total may end up.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
If the Chiefs win…
There is one reason the Chiefs are in the Super Bowl for the third time in the last 5 years, and that reason is Patrick Mahomes. The MVP front-runner never missed a beat after losing Tyreek Hill, and the Chiefs offense has been as deadly as ever. Mahomes suffered a serious ankle injury during the Wild Card Round of the playoffs, but he has battled through and has looked solid in the game and a half since then. In recent interviews, Mahomes has no walking boot and no limp, which will be encouraging signs for Chiefs bettors.
If anyone has the key to unlock the Eagle’s defense, it’s Mahomes. His mobility should help his offensive line contain the elite pass rush the Eagles possess, as they ranked first in sacks this season. Fortunately, the Chiefs have the third best offensive line in terms of sacks allowed, and they should be able to do just enough to give Mahomes time to find his receivers. He has been able to heavily lean on TE Travis Kelce, who leads the team in receptions, yards, and receiving touchdowns. Kelce has been instrumental in the Chiefs rise to the top, as he looks to move into second all time for postseason receiving touchdowns.
There is no doubt that Jalen Hurts and a potent Eagles offense will be able to expose a weak Chiefs secondary. Therefore, if the Chiefs are to win this game, they will need to outscore their defensive issues. Whether it is on the ground or in the air, there is no doubt Eagles will score.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see an early shootout, and a halftime score where both teams have 17+ points, and it may come down to whoever has the ball last wins. Both teams score a majority of their points in the first half, and the Chiefs will need to keep pace with the Eagles incredible second quarter scoring if they have a chance. If the Chiefs win, this game surely goes Over, and a scoreline of 31-27 in favor of Kansas City sounds about right.
If the Eagles win…
If Philadelphia is able to win their 2nd Super Bowl in 6 years, it will be thanks to their elite play on both sides of the ball. Hurts and the Eagles offense is not strong enough to outscore a weak game from their defense. And while their defense is good, the Chiefs will score a few points, and Hurts and the offense will need to do their part too.
Against the Chiefs, I expect the defense to show up. The Eagles have proven if their defense plays well, they can run out the clock, control the football, and come away with victories. Haason Reddick was second in the league with 16.0 sacks in the regular season and added on 3.5 more sacks in the two previous playoff games. Reddick is the leader of the defensive line, but the Eagles line is far more than just him. Brandon Graham, Javon Hargrave, and Josh Sweat all recorded 11.0 sacks, which puts 4 Eagles linemen in the top 14 in the league in the sacks category. That kind of dominance is rarely seen. And to put it into perspective, the Chiefs second best defensive lineman finished with 6.0 sacks.
The Chiefs offensive line will have their work cut out for them, and I expect the Eagles to grind out a low-scoring win. If they go up 10+ points, they will lean on their running game, the same backfield that put up 268 rushing yards on the Giants 3 weeks ago and will run riot over the Chiefs. While there may be some early fireworks, the Eagles will limit Mahomes’ passing attack, and leave the Chiefs struggling for points.
Jalen Hurts will permanently inscribe his name in Eagles history, but it will be the defense that takes center stage. Eagles win 27-17.
This game could go either way, and I would bet accordingly. If you plan on betting the Chiefs, take the Over on the same ticket. However, if you’re anticipating another Philly special, grab the Under with an Eagles victory.
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