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Forte Odds to Win the 2023 Kentucky Derby with Expert Predictions

by Joey House - 4/26/2023

Forte odds to win the Kentucky Derby

The first leg of the Triple Crown has the most entries, as every horse that is in the race has the chance to go on and have their name forever etched in the annals of racing. Because of this, chaos seemingly reigns supreme as bettors will undoubtedly remember last year's Rich Strike winning with odds of 80-1 or 2009's Mine That Bird and 2006's Giacomo, going off at 51-1 and 50-1, respectively. I didn't include 2019's Country House because he was crowned champion through disqualification.

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With all of these upset wins, one might think that the favorite exists in name only. Yet since the 2013 rule modification that changes the selection criteria from lifetime winnings to a point-based system, six closing favorites (60%) have won the first jewel in the Triple Crown. All of this means that while the unexpected can, and will, happen, the favorite deserves the consideration that his odds demand.

Because of the popularity of the race, there are countless "systems" that attempt to predict the winner. I unknowingly learned my first "system" watching the Disney movie "Secretariat" when Sham went on to beat "Big Red" in their first meeting. Don't bet on the winner of the Wood Memorial. In the last 41 years, only 2 horses (2000 Fusaichi Pegasus and 2003 Funny Cide) have won the Wood Memorial-Kentucky Derby double.

One horse checks the box of many of the other trends and angles in the 149th "Run for the Roses". From winning the last time out, to avoiding racing three or more times from January through April, and winning the Florida Derby, it's clear to see that Forte is the strongest of all the Derby contenders.

Last Race: As a lifelong fan of Philadelphia sports, I'm used to a win seemingly "never being easy". That is the perfect description of Forte's run in the Florida Derby. Going off as a 1-5 favorite, Forte had a beautiful start to negate the difficulty of being in the 11th post. But due to a lively start, he still found himself at the back of the pack with Mage. As the two favored horses started to make their move at the second turn, Mage blew by Forte, and it seemed as if Forte would lose the second race in his career. But as all great champions do, Forte found an extra reserve and won going away as Mage faltered.

Prior experience: After winning his Maiden Special Weight debut in May of last year at Belmont, he ran in the G3 Sanford at Saratoga on 7/16/22. He finished a disappointing 4th, as Mo Strike won. However, trainer Todd Pletcher was not deterred and entered Forte in the Hopeful at Saratoga in September. Forte answered the bell as he won, posting an HRN speed figure of 102. A month later, he returned to the winner's circle, this time at Keeneland, having triumphed in the G1 Breeders' Futurity, which qualified him automatically for the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He ran down favorite, Cave Rock, and won as the 5-1 second choice to close out the year. The only races that Forte ran in 2023 have been the G2 Fountain of Youth in March and the G1 Curlin-Florida Derby in April, winning both going away.

Trainer: Born into a horse racing family, Todd Pletcher began his fabled career as a hot walker when he was just seven years old. Learning his craft from some of the best trainers in US racing history (Charlie Whittingham and D. Wayne Lukas), Pletcher established himself when 3-year-old filly Ashado won the 2004 Kentucky Oaks and the 2004 Breeders' Cup Distaff. Since the 2012 rule change for qualification, Pletcher has entered more than 30 horses into the Derby. He has two Derby winners in Super Saver (2010) and Always Dreaming (2017). He also trains Tapit Trice and Kingsbarn. A Hall of Famer with over 5,500 wins (and counting), Pletcher is hoping to build upon his illustrious career.

Jockey: Only 30-years-old and already a 4-time Eclipse Award for Outstanding Jockey, Ortiz is trying to add the second jewel of his Triple-Crown career. With numerous Breeders' Cup wins, as well as two Belmont Stakes, Ortiz looks to become the youngest jockey to win the Derby since Mario Gutierrez in 2016 on Nyquist. A major advantage for Ortiz is the fact that he's been on Forte his entire career. He is another future Hall of Famer with an outstanding chance to nab the biggest win of his illustrious career.

Breeding: Forte was sired by another Todd Pletcher-trained thoroughbred, Violence. Violence had a promising career (3 wins and a second-place finish) in four starts cut short by a right-font leg injury. He has yet to establish himself as a prominent sire, and Forte is his most successful active runner. Damsire Blame won multiple stake races, highlighted by the thrilling 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic over Zenyatta. His father was the great sire Arch, who sired many graded stakes winners that excelled in stamina. Overall, Forte's lineage has a superb combination of both speed and stamina, which has been borne out by Forte's impressive history.

Odds: With his impressive resume, it's no wonder that Forte is the clear favorite at 5-2. The oddsmakers are sufficiently impressed, and you should be too. While a bad trip is certainly possible, Forte is easily the strongest selection and should make the most noise come May 6.

Prediction: Some experts are suggesting to fade Forte because the price is too short. However, since the selection process was revamped in 2013, 6 closing line favorites have won the Derby. Sixty percent is a tough number to discount, and I'm not going to do it. I recommend a win bet and then use Forte as your key horse in the exotics.

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