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Free NCAA Tournament Betting Picks for the First Round 2023

by August Young - 3/14/2023

Free NCAA Tournament betting picks Elijah Hawkins Howard Bison

It’s about that time! The NCAA Tournament is here, and we couldn’t be more excited! Three hundred fifty eligible teams have shrunk down to 68, and we are here to scour the board for you to provide some free and actionable insight for the First Round. As the tournament extends, the daily value becomes less and less. This juncture is a prime opportunity to take advantage of as many positive expected value wagers as possible before things tighten up. Without further ado, let’s get to our free selections.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.


748) Maryland +2.5 -110 (vs. West Virginia) [Thursday, March 16 at 12:15 p.m. ET]

West Virginia will come into the tournament after covering five of their last six games by an average cover margin of 8.4 points per game. As for Maryland, they are just 2-2 ATS in their L/4 games, and 5-5 ATS in their L/10 games, with an average cover margin of just 0.1 points per game. For that reason, we are finding an inflated line on the Mountaineers based on recency bias. However, let’s not forget that the Terps still rank 35th in adjusted offensive rating and 33rd in adjusted defensive rating. They are the better defensive team from a metric standpoint and are one of the best teams in the nation at defending without fouling. The same cannot be said for WVU; the Mountaineers rank in the top 50 teams in opponents point distribution from the free-throw line, where they allow 21.6% of all opponents’ points. We make this line much closer to a pick’em and believe all the value lies with the Terrapins. They are the much slower paced team, which has proven to be successful at this time of the year. For example, dating back to 2005; tournament underdogs that rank in the lower percentile regarding adjusted tempo are 311-256 ATS (54.9%) for a +6.4% ROI. Value on the +2.5 and also the +120 moneyline price.

Pick: Maryland +2.5 -110
 

752) Iowa +1.5 -110 (vs. Auburn) [Thursday, March 16 at 6:50 p.m. ET]

Both teams enter this tournament on shaky ground. Iowa has failed to cover in two straight games, and seven of their last 10, while Auburn is 3-6 ATS in their L/9 games. We don’t have a team in a specific buy-low situation here, so we can look towards the metrics to find an angle, and we believe the edge lies with the Hawkeyes. They rank 3rd in adjusted offensive rating, while also playing one of the toughest strength of schedule in terms of opposing teams defensive rating. They have a tremendously balanced attack on the offensive end and should be able to exploit their height advantages at multiple positions and get to the free-throw line. Similar to WVU, the Tigers have issues with fouling. They rank in the bottom 15 in terms of opposing teams’ points coming from the foul line, at 23.2%. We should also note that Iowa ranks 66th in adjusted tempo, and that has proven to be the Achilles’ heel at times for the Tigers. In fact, they are just 1-4 ATS this season when playing teams that rank a minimum of 40 deviation rankings faster than them in terms of possessions per 40 minutes. If that’s all a little complicated, don’t worry about it; just know they struggle against faster teams. Finally, we should also mention that outside shooting is a must to have success in this tournament based on historic data, and that’s another area that Auburn has struggled. They’re shooting just 31.4% from three-point range, which ranks 314th in the nation. In our opinion, we don’t believe they will be able to keep pace with the Hawkeyes offense down the stretch.

Pick: Iowa +1.5 -110

749) Howard +22.5 -110 (vs. Kansas) [Thursday, March 16 at 2:00 p.m. ET]

Hold your nose as this is an ugly one, but that’s just how we like ‘em. First of all, we need to bring our attention to some history. This is called March Madness for good reason, as anything can happen. Since 2005; teams listed as at least 17-point favorites in the NCAA Tournament are 41-55 ATS (42.7%) for a -16.5% ROI. Also, you can’t tell me a team like Kansas is not being insanely overvalued in this spot, especially against a Howard team that ranks 204th in adjusted offensive rating and 212th in adjusted defensive rating, while playing an extremely weak strength of schedule. Even without a predictive model, it would be safe to assume that the Jayhawks line is being inflated. Howard has quietly been playing some good basketball as of late, covering four straight games by an average cover margin of 17.13 points per game. That’s an incredible number in terms of cover margin and should not be overlooked. There’s no doubt that Kansas should roll here. However, do we think they cover 22.5 points more often than not? There is no benefit for them to run up the score down the stretch, and this backdoor could be open and alive all game long. Small value on the big underdogs. Go Bison!

Pick: Howard +22.5 -110

August Young has proven to be one of the absolute best handicappers in the industry. As of Selection Sunday (3/12/23) August’s Clients are up +$12,710 on the college basketball picks season, including a +10,790 CBB heater in 2023 alone. Speaking of which, Young is up an astounding +$20,475 across all sports in 2023 which includes showing profit in each and every sport he handicaps! If you are new to Doc’s Sports you can get a no obligation free $60 account to try out August Young on this page.    Existing members can get 15% off a one week or remainder of the season college basketball package with promo code AYMM15

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