2021 Kentucky Derby Betting and Wagering Strategies
The Kentucky Derby is similar to the Super Bowl in the sense that it gets hyped up almost to the point of nausea and it often very rarely delivers the drama and entertainment that we want to see. Nonetheless, the Derby is one of the most wagered on horseraces in the United State. Therefore, if you’re going to throw some money on it, I suggest having a bit of a strategy in place to help maximize your return. Before we get into the strategies below, I must implore you to look at the Kentucky Derby as no more than just another race on another Saturday. The minute you make it out to be some big spectacle and start listening to what the media has to say is the minute you throw all decent strategies out the window and start betting based on influence.
Below are five Kentucky Derby strategies that have helped me cash in on some solid returns over the years.
Relax: This may not be a strategy, but it’s one of the most important things you can do. Take a deep breath and do not get overwhelmed at the fact that there are 20 horses in the field. Realistically, only about five or six of them have a good chance to win, so you can eliminate a handful of horses without wasting too much time or energy on them. Remember, the Derby is about having fun, and the winning part is just a bonus.
Prices on the Tote: The tote board is your friend. I suggest you watch it closely to see where the money is going, and which horses are taking support, or which are being forgotten. If you see a horse on the tote board that’s going lower than his morning line odds, that means people are bullish on his chances of winning. If a horse opened up at 5/1 and is now 12/1, that means that not many people like his chances and the value of that horse at 5/1 is not Something they wanted any part of. Odds are also all about perception. If a horse has, in your eyes, a 20 percent chance of winning, then you wouldn't want to bet him at 2/1 because you would lose money over the long term. But at 20/1 you would throw money at the horse. The more effectively you can think in terms of value as opposed to pure results, the better off you are going to be in the long term.
Imagine it: Similar to when betting on sports, you have an idea of how the team you pick should be able to win. Whether that’s an advantage on the mound, or at the skill positions in football, you always have an idea of what to expect. When handicapping this horse race, the process should be no different. You should take into account how fast the early pace is going to be and which horses do you envision leading the race or holding back and coming off the pace. By understanding the thought process of each jockey, you should have a better indication of which horses can be set up for a big day. Oftentimes you’ll see a long shot hit the front and set up insane fractions, which throws everyone – especially the horses that like to be on the front or close to the front – for a loop. This is why understanding the race dynamic is so important. Do you expect reasonable fractions? Or will they be really aggressive? Or somehow lethargic? Depending on what you expect, that will inform how you like those leaders, the horses that will likely be in the pack behind them, and the deep closers in the field.
Think Outside the Box: It’s one thing to pick a winning horse in a seven or eight-horse field, and it’s a completely different ball game to pick a winner in the Derby when 20 horses are leaving the starting gate. Which is why I suggest getting exotic with your wagers and play either the exacta or trifecta options.
For those of you who are new to horse racing, an exacta is a bet in which you must pick the first- and second-place horses. You can pick as many horses as you’d like, but the price will go up. You can also box them, which will double the price. The Trifecta is first, second and third, and the superfecta is the top four. The more horses you use for these options, the higher the cost, but the potential of a massive payout that’s worth every penny. Last year, Authentic was the winner of the Derby at a modest 8/1. The exacta – Authentic + Tiz the Law – paid $41 on a $2 wager. The trifecta paid $1,225 on a single dollar, and the superfecta paid $7,500.
You Got to Bet it to Get It: If you have your heart set on picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby, all the power to you. I think it’s important to have confidence in your ability to do anything, and sports/horse betting is no different. However, I choose to go an alternative route than choosing the winner, only because the potential payout is greater than putting a couple of bucks on a 50/1 and hoping he upsets the field and comes in first. I tend to stick to exotic bets like the trifecta or superfecta options. As stated above, when they connect, they connect in a big way. Another way I try to maximize my return is by betting on props. In my opinion, props are a really good way to bet on certain horses without betting on them and getting the small odds on the tote board. I’ll have more on Kentucky Derby props I like later this week.
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