2022 MLB Cy Young Award Odds and Predictions for AL and NL

by Cameron McQuade - 8/9/2022

With just a little more than 2 months left of regular season baseball, we are seeing who really has stood out on the mound this year. There have been many surprises, injuries, and “thought so” moments to go along with pitching this year. Today we will look at the top contenders to win the Cy Young award in the AL and NL, and why they are among the league’s best in 2022. We will also pick a “Dark Horse” that could have a strong last stretch to the season and take home the award. With betting, we want to bet where the odds benefit us, but also make sense, so let’s dive right in.

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American League

Back in April, at the start of the 2022 season, we looked at a possible “Breakout Pitcher” / “Darkhorse” Cy Young winner to bet on. That pitcher was Dylan Cease of the Chicago White Sox. In April, Cease’s odds to win the AL Cy Young award was at +2500, a long shot to win the award. Now after a 11-4 season thus far, Cease is ranked #2 on ESPN’s Cy Young Winner Predicator for the AL and sits at +850 to win the award. After winning pitcher of the month for the second consecutive month, Cease has been on fire as of late. Across his last 6 starts, Cease registers a 5-1 record with 40 strikeouts and a 0.76 ERA. From May 29-July 31 he allowed 1 run or less in 12 consecutive starts, wow. He joins Jacob deGrom as the only pitchers since 1913 to post such starts. If Cease can keep this momentum up, our April prediction just may come true.

Even with being 3rd in the MLB with 161 strikeouts, we have a few pitchers leading the way in the AL Cy Young odds over Cease. Leading the way is veteran Justin Verlander of the Houston Astros at +180 odds to win the prestigious award. He is ranked #1 on EPSN’s predictor for the AL and has been dominant all season long. At 39 years old, and not pitching for nearly 2 calendar years, Verlander has not lost a step. It’s incredible to say the least. Through his 19 starts this season, he leads all starters with a 1.81 ERA and ranks second with a WHIP of 0.87, truly insane. He also leads the MLB with 14 wins on the year and basically averages a strikeout an inning (122k/124IP).

Verlander’s biggest competition on the year is Tampa Bay’s very own Shane McClanahan. The AL All Star Game starter has had a very dominant season for Tampa. He ranks 3rd in ERA amongst American League pitchers and has the best WHIP in baseball. Sitting batters down and minimizing walks allows McClanahan to have a crisp 158k/23BB ratio (6.87 k/bb). Sitting at +170 to win the AL Cy Young award, McClanahan leads the way by a tad over Verlander. He struggled in his last start vs the Guardians on Sunday but looks to bounce back vs Detroit next week in a favourable matchup. Look for McClanahan to continue adding to his Cy Young resume.

National League

The front runner in the NL is Sandy Alcantara of the Miami Marlins. At -170, he is the definite favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award. With a 2nd MLB best ERA at 1.99, Sandy has done it all. Through the 1st half of the season, Alcantara had completed at least seven innings in 13 consecutive starts -- the longest streak by any pitcher since 2014. Alcantara leads MLB pitching in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) at 5.5. He ranks 2nd amongst ALL players, only behind the slugging probable MVP Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees (6.1 WAR). ESPN’s Cy Young Predictor has him ranked at #4 (NL), but that’s due to the weak Miami team he plays for. Tossing 16 QS and only having 9 Wins tells you a lot.

Following not-so-close behind is Milwaukee Brewers ace Corbin Burnes. The reigning NL Cy Young champ has an impressive 2.49 ERA, with 166Ks over 130.0 innings pitched. He leads the MLB in strikeouts and holds an 8-5 record. Sitting at +650 odds to win the NL CY Young, Burnes will have to start stacking up the wins. He sits at 15 quality starts on the season, so his team will have to push their load to make the back-to-back win possible. A loss to Pittsburgh on August 2 doesn’t help his case, though, as he gave up 3 hits, 4 earned runs, 2 hit batters and 5 free passes.

Trailing Burnes and Alcantara is Max Fried (+1200). With a 10-3 record, Fried has been solid for the Braves. He’s tied in 2nd for quality starts, with 16 on the season, only behind Framber Valdez (18QS). Fried has been solid for a while. From May 1, 2021, to July 6, 2022, Fried was 23-8 with a 2.47 ERA and had 244 strikeouts in 262 innings. Being a consistent pitcher with consistent numbers seems to get over shadowed by the high-k rate and velo guys. But Fried is on a good team and can truly make a solid run in the final stretch of this season to lockdown the highest achievement a pitcher can receive. In his most recent outing vs Arizona, Fried went 7 shut-out innings, giving up 4 hits and 2 walks with 5 punch outs. Luckily, the Braves scored 1 run, but it was too late in the game and Fried got the no-decision. He looks to improve his impressive 1.07 WHIP Saturday vs the New York Mets.

Dark Horse Winner

With many starting pitchers getting off to a slow start this season, whether that’s from a shortened spring training or the crack down on sticky substances, the majority had a tough start. To win the CY Young award you need to be as close to perfect the whole season as possible. Therefore, even a stud who’s having a great second half could fall short of the award.

Someone who I believe still has a shot at the award is Cleveland Guardians ace Shane Bieber, the 2020 AL Cy Young award winner. At +6000, it’s not likely. But who doesn’t love a long shot? Let me explain. Bieber started the season with his velocity down, spin rate down, and had minor command issues, which is not like him at all. Coming off an injured 2021 season, it may have been obvious to some that it wouldn’t be the dominant Bieber we knew and loved to start the 2022 season. All in all, he’s started 20 games and sits at a record of 6-6 with a 3.39 ERA. His WHIP sits at 1.115 on the season (lower than his career average of 1.118) and he has 126 strikeouts over 124.2 innings pitched. Registering 14 quality starts, it’s not all Biebers fault for not having a more glamorous record. In 20 games the ace has started, Cleveland has a record of 13-7. Cleveland has won each of Bieber’s last 11 interleague starts, and the right-hander is 8-0 in those games with a 2.66 ERA in 71 innings. Recently vs. Arizona, Bieber’s fastball hit 94 MPH a few times, and he averaged 92.0 for the game. Prior to last week, he never averaged more than 91.5 MPH. It’s not just me that thinks Bieber is back and could be in for a super strong finish, Shane himself said he felt his best this year after a dominant game vs Tampa Bay on July 29. Even better than his shut-out gem vs The White Sox on the 12. “I’m starting to figure it out,” Shane Bieber said, “I’ve just been working on a lot of different things, and that’s a new challenge for me to have to do that in the middle of a Major League Baseball season. But it’s something that I’m trying to embrace and enjoy and continue to just get better, and to get to where I know I can be and where I want to be.” Cleveland is one game behind 1st place Minnesota and will be trying to lock in a post season visit. A long shot bet on Bieber may just pay off.

Honorable Mentions

Tony Gonsolin +4500, ranked #1 on ESPN’s NL CY Young Predictor.

Joe Musgrove +1600, 0.98 WHIP, 2.65 ERA & on baseball’s newest best hitting team.

Alek Manoah +1800, 11-5 record, 0.99 WHIP & backed by a solid Blue Jays lineup.

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Start:	February 2, 2023 @ 11:00 PM
Expert:	Scott Spreitzer
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2022 MLB Cy Young Award Odds and Predictions for AL and NL

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