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2020 MLB Cy Young Award Odds and Predictions for AL and NL

by Jason Radowitz - 7/13/2020

Houston Astros Pitcher Justin Verlander

If you’re looking to bet on the Cy Young, it might be a good idea to look at seasonal stats. There are pitchers who perform better towards the end of the season in the compared to spring ball in March and April. Currently, there are two New York pitchers who are considered to be favorites to win their league’s respective Cy Young. The New York media would be in a frenzy if this took place, but it’s not farfetched.

The AL Cy Young Award

The Favorites:

Gerrit Cole: +250
Justin Verlander +500
Shane Bieber: +550
Lucas Giolito: +900

My Pick: Gerrit Cole +250

Gerrit Cole recently signed a nine-year, $324 million contract with the New York Yankees. After the 2019 All-Star break, Cole went 11-0 with a 1.79 ERA in 14 starts.

He didn’t win the Cy Young last season, but that kind of stretch is remarkable. On the season, each starter will figure to pitch around 12 starts on the season. If Cole starts and finishes a season like his finish to the 2019 season, there’s no chance any pitcher catches up to Cole.

Cole will be pitching in a more hitter-friendly ballpark and will also have to face the NL East, which has some powerful bats throughout the various lineups. However, if Jacob deGrom of the Mets can shut those bats down, Cole can too.

Throughout last season, he went 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA while striking out 362 batters in 212.1 innings. He lost the Cy Young to his former teammate in Justin Verlander. However, many thought Cole deserved it more, especially with his performance after the All-Star break.

According to the New York Yankees camp and media, he’s looked really good since summer camp returned to action. Cole led the league in ERA, strikeouts per nine innings, and ERA. Now he gets to face the Baltimore Orioles for a couple more games this season, which should help.

For this award, we’re going to need consistency every single start. One bad start could ruin an ERA. There won’t be many starts to get an ERA lower if you have a couple bad starts and mostly good outings.

Cole has shown plenty of consistency throughout his career and had two incredible seasons with the Astros before making the switch to the Yankees.

The NL Cy Young

The Favorites:

Jacob deGrom: +350
Walker Buehler: +600
Max Scherzer: +700
Jack Flaherty: +800
Stephen Strasberg: +900
Yu Darvish: +1000

My Pick: Jacob deGrom

How can you go against a pitcher who has now won back-to-back Cy Young awards after winning just 21 games in 64 starts?

This season might be different for deGrom. The Mets now feature a lineup that seems scary. The power in the New York Mets lineup, with Yoenis Cespedes returning and Pete Alonso in his sophomore season, will be very intriguing.

Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson are the only two pitchers with four straight Cy Young awards. deGrom is looking to achieve that kind of greatness. However, with just 12 games, to him, it won’t feel the same.

He told the New York Post, “I would say there definitely has to be some difference there, 12 starts versus 32 or 33,” deGrom said. “There is a lot that can happen in any given start, and you normally play 162 games and 200 innings. I don’t think [winning the award] would feel the same, but it’s definitely still a goal.”

Degrom had an ERA of 3.71 last season when June started. He then finished with a 2.73 ERA at the end of the season. In 2018, he had an ERA of 1.70 and had one of the greatest performances in a season that any starting pitcher has had.

Per CBS Sports, deGrom has an ERA of 1.60 with an opponent batting averages of .176 in August and September since 2018.

In all other months, deGrom has a 2.30 ERA in 174.1 innings of work with a batting average of .214 by opponents.

This shows that deGrom is dominant the most during August and September. The shortened season will be mostly played in August and September with one walk in July.

If that trend continues, deGrom will be holding up in third consecutive Cy Young award after the 2020 season is over.

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