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NBA Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 4/15/2024

NBA Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament odds Trae Young Atlanta Hawks

The NBA Play-In Tournament has been widely viewed as a successful introduction to the league, as it has given everyone something to play for down the stretch and is the perfect transition into a grueling postseason. The Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat are expected to hold onto their 7th and 8th seeds, respectively, with the Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls coming in as clear underdogs. The 76ers and Heat have the privilege of needing to win just a single game to book their spot in the postseason, while the Bulls and Hawks need to win back-to-back games to clinch a playoff spot. However, the single game elimination format ensures there is always a shot for the underdog, and there will be no easy games here on out for the Eastern Conference playoff hopefuls.

Philadelphia 76ers -1300 Make/+800 Miss

The 76ers are the biggest Play-In Tournament favorites in either conference, as they would have easily secured a top 6 seed if it were not for Joel Embiid’s injury. Embiid was held to just 39 games this season, and the 76ers were 31-8 with the reigning MVP on the court, compared to just 16-27 without him. There is no doubting the fact that the 76ers will be favorites against any of the Eastern Conference teams outside the Top 3, and they stick out like a sore thumb in this competition.

Philadelphia squares off against the Miami Heat on Wednesday, and I expect them to book their ticket to the playoffs with the first chance they get. The luxury of being in the 7th or 8th seed is that the 76ers need to beat the Heat OR beat the winner of the 9th vs 10th game. They’ll have two chances to make the playoffs but won’t need both. The 76ers will be able to dominate the Heat in the paint. And the emergence of Tyrese Maxey kept the 76ers afloat with Embiid on the shelf. Philadelphia still has a few holes in their game, like their inability to move the ball on offense, but they make up for it with hustle, and a constant barrage of Embiid free throws all night long. The 76ers give up the fewest turnovers in the league and generate the most steals. This results in a huge swing in possessions on a nightly basis. So, while the 76ers may not have the best efficiency, those extra 5-7 shots are usually enough to tilt the scale in their favor.

The -1300 line for the 76ers to make the playoffs is unplayable, but the -190 ML against the Heat is far more reasonable. The 76ers will undoubtedly be massive favorites in the -500 range against either the Hawks or Bulls if they lose to Miami, but that won’t be necessary as they’ll close it out on their home court on Wednesday night.

Pick: Make -1300 and -190 Moneyline against the Heat

Miami Heat -600 Make/+400 Miss

The Miami Heat have been one of the best underdog stories of this generation, as they consistently defy postseason expectations. They became the first 8th seed to reach the NBA Finals last season, just 3 years after making the Finals as the 5th seed. Jimmy Butler transforms into a different player in the playoffs, and the Miami Heat are a perfect fit for Butler. Miami will always play with heart and grit on the defensive end, and their ‘never say die’ attitude has propelled them to so many playoff upsets in the past.

This has come back to bite me in the past, but I’ll be fading Jimmy Butler and the Heat in this year’s Play-In Tournament. Miami is facing the same situation as the 76ers, where they need to win one of their next two possible games to make the postseason. While they will have to go on the road against the 76ers, they’ll be treated to a home game to close out the tournament. It’s difficult to see the Heat get past the 76ers in their first chance to punch their playoff ticket, and the odds make their ‘Make’ line close to unplayable. Miami doesn’t have the interior size to handle Embiid, and they’ll be forced to head to a sudden death game against the Bulls-Hawks winner. While there is no doubt Miami will be deserving favorites in either second matchup, the +400 line is too good to pass up on what should be a single game. The Heat have had some fortunate breaks in their previous playoff runs, and while they certainly have the clutch gene, their luck will eventually run out. These are great odds for the Heat to miss the playoffs, and I’ll be taking a stab on that prop.

Pick: Miss +400

Chicago Bulls +450 Make/-700 Miss 

The Bulls locked up the 9th seed in the East and will need to win two straight games to book their playoff spot. They’ll have the privilege of hosting the Hawks to kick off the festivities, before hopefully heading on the road against the 7/8 loser. Chicago is one of the most frustrating teams to support, as they have all the talent needed to win but just haven’t been able to put it all together. Lonzo Ball missed the entire season, and Zach LaVine played just 25 games, and none since January 8. The Bulls have been led by DeMar DeRozan, Alex Caruso, and Nikola Vucevic down the stretch. And while that trio can still make an impact, they aren’t championship-caliber players.

In last year’s Play-In Tournament, the Bulls beat the Raptors thanks to DeRozan’s daughter's antics, before falling to the Heat in the second game. The Bulls will need to win back-to-back games once again, but that will not be happening this year, either. The Bulls don’t match up well against the Hawks, as their perimeter defense aside from Caruso is abysmal. The Hawks love to rain it down from deep, and Chicago will struggle to keep pace. Even if they get past the Hawks, a Heat or 76ers victory feels extremely unlikely. The -700 price is less than ideal, but when you consider the uphill battle facing the Bulls, there is almost no way the Bulls make the playoffs this year.

Pick: Miss -700

Atlanta Hawks +650 Make/ -1100 Miss

The Hawks have everything they need to pull off some massive upsets. Trae Young is back in action for Atlanta, and a team that has struggled with injuries all year long is finally healthy once again. The Hawks style of raining down three’s and hoping for the best is exactly the type of thing needed from a big underdog, and the +650 line is a solid look. Atlanta will need to win back-to-back road games to make the playoffs. And for a team taking a 6-game losing streak into the Play-In Tournament, that’s a tough pill to swallow. However, the Hawks have pulled off upsets in the past, as no one can forget about Young shushing Madison Square Garden in 2021.

I’m not saying that Atlanta should be the favorites to make the playoffs, but this line is flat out disrespectful to the Hawks. The single game format ensures that the Hawks have a puncher's chance to get hot from deep and upset a better franchise. DeJounte Murray is a suitable co-star for Young, as the former Spur can create his own shooting opportunity and cut to the basket when Young has the ball. If Clint Capela can stay on the court, his physicality is exactly what will be needed to shut down Embiid or Bam Adebayo. The Hawks have the belief, skill, and playstyle needed to pull off these upsets, and we will certainly be taking a flier on them at +650 odds.

Pick: Atlanta Hawks +650

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