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NBA Western Conference Play-In Tournament Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 4/15/2024

NBA Western Conference Play In Tournament odds LeBron James Los Angeles Lakers

The Western Conference Play-In Tournament was always going to be a tightly contested battleground, as all 10 qualified teams were above .500, with just 5 wins separating 4th and 10th in the West. The New Orleans Pelicans and LA Lakers finished 7th and 8th, respectively, while the Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors finished 9th and 10th. The Pelicans will host the Lakers, with both teams needing just a single victory to secure their playoff spots, while the Kings will host the Warriors, with the loser getting bounced from the postseason before it even really begins. The 7/8 loser will square off against the 9/10 winner to decide the final playoff position. All 4 of the Western Conference play-in teams have legitimate title aspirations, and there will be plenty of fireworks this week to decide which pair will continue their postseason journey. The betting odds are relatively close, and there is plenty of money to be made in this NBA mini-tournament.

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New Orleans Pelicans -450 Make/+320 Miss

The Pelicans were finally able to stay relatively healthy on the court, and their 49 wins this season was the most since 2009. Zion Williamson continues to develop into a dominating NBA force, and a backcourt tandem of Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum ensures the Pelicans have plenty of perimeter scoring to match with Williamson’s interior destruction. New Orleans will need to win just one of their two possible play-in games, but it will be no easy task to get past the LA Lakers with their first crack at a postseason ticket. The Lakers are equipped with LeBron James and Anthony Davis. And even though they didn’t live up to preseason expectations, they are still certainly in contention for a title. The 7/8 odds are exactly 50/50, and the Pelicans will need to play perfect basketball to get past the greatest player of this century.

These lines seem pretty fair for the Pelicans. If the Pelicans lose their opening game, they will likely be in the range of -200 home favorites against either the Warriors or Kings in the final game of the tournament. The -450/+320 line is where it should be, and there isn’t any value on either side. I expect the Pelicans to lose to the Lakers and probably punch their ticket against either bottom seed, but the -450 price doesn’t represent enough value to pull the trigger.

Pick: Pass

LA Lakers -500 Make/+340 Miss

The Lakers find themselves in the Play-In Tournament for the second consecutive season, and there is no doubt they will punch their ticket into the playoffs. LeBron James is still chasing the elusive 5th NBA ring. And despite the Lakers low seed, they have the tools needed to make another deep playoff run. James is his usual dominant self. And with Anthony Davis giving the Lakers an edge in the paint, LA deserves to have the highest playoff chances in the West. The Lakers have dealt with injuries, and they won’t be getting any help in the Play-In Tournament. Christian Wood and Jarred Vanderbilt are still without return dates, but it would be foolish to think the Lakers don’t have a real shot at not only making the playoffs but going deep.

The -500 line is a tough pill to swallow, but there is nothing the NBA wants more than another year of LeBron James in the playoffs, and the Lakers have the skill to grant them their wish. Davis will be able to contain Williamson in the paint, and the Pelicans lack the perimeter size to handle James down the stretch. Ingram is coming off an injury. And even though he made his return in the season finale, he is still clearly not at 100%. James poured in a 28/17/11 stat line against the Pelicans in the finale, and the Lakers will be confident they can get another win over New Orleans. The Lakers will be able to cruise past the Pelicans in the opening game, and they always have the insurance of another chance if they falter at the buzzer.

Pick: Make -500

Sacramento Kings +400 Make/-600

The Kings went cold down the stretch and slipped into the dreaded 9th seed in the final weeks of the season. Injuries to Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk were hurt, and they won’t be back for the Kings Play-In Tournament games. The Kings went 4-9 across their last 13 games and have a must-win matchup against the Golden State Warriors to kick off their postseason quest. Sacramento was one of the surprise teams last year, securing the 3rd seed in the West before getting bounced in the first round by none other than the Warriors. A single game rematch with the loser going home couldn’t have any higher stakes, and the Kings have what it takes to make this one competitive. D’Aaron Fox has been one of the most clutch players in the league, and he will be confident he can go toe-to-toe with future Hall of Famer Steph Curry in this must watch matchup. The Kings are +125 home underdogs, which is honestly a little disrespectful to them. They have been better than the Warriors this season, and everyone is expecting an aging core for Golden State to suddenly find their groove. The Warriors dynasty is over, and this game will truly signal that as offseason changes are expected. Domantas Sabonis and Draymond Green will have bad intentions in the paint, and the Kings have learned their lessons from last year.

If the Kings get past the Warriors, they will still need to go on the road against the Pelicans or Lakers to punch their postseason ticket. They will certainly be underdogs once again, but this +400 line has more than enough value to take a shot on Sacramento. This single game format ensures an entire season comes down to a few key shots down the stretch, and the Kings have shown enough growth to make it realistic that they can be the ones to defy the odds and make the postseason. At +400, this is the best value bet on the board.

Pick: Make +400

Golden State Warriors +280 Make/-390 Miss

The Warriors dynasty is coming to a close, as Curry (36), Green (34), and Klay Thompson (34) are nearing the end of their careers. The introduction of Chris Paul (38) has given the bench unit a reliable veteran, but there simply aren’t enough explosive playmakers on the Warriors to expect them to make the postseason. The Kings won the last 2 meetings with the Warriors and will have the edge at home once again on Tuesday night. Curry will be impactful, but poor form from Thompson and Green leaves Golden State with few options to lean on. Jonathan Kuminga and Andrew Wiggins will be outworked by Keegan Murray and Harrison Barnes, and the overall lack of effort from the Warriors is disheartening. The Kings will have been waiting for a chance at redemption, and I don’t even expect the Warriors to get the chance to play in the second game of the tournament. Golden State still has the shooters to keep it interesting, but the +280 odds for them to beat the Kings and the Lakers/Pelicans on the road in back-to-back games are simply not long enough. It’s a tough pill to swallow, but the postseason miss will signal the end of one of the best dynasties the league has ever seen.

Pick: Miss -390

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