NL and AL Pennant Futures Betting Odds and Picks
I know it feels like Major League Baseball's Opening Day was a little over a month ago, but we'll be at the season's 81-game halfway mark by the weekend. Many of the divisions appear to be locked up already, that is, if you pay attention to the betting odds.
The Philadelphia Phillies, who recently became the favorite, are the only first-place team with odds short of 3-1 at (-150) to win their respective division. Will the New York Mets be able to keep pace with Philly? I think so. Juan Soto is finally adjusting to his new environment, and their pitching staff continues to show out.
Come playoff time, though, my money is on the experience of Philadelphia over New York. If it’s between them and the LA Dodgers to win the NL Pennant, though, we may have to side with Shohei Ohtani. Those betting odds are not so attractive, though.
In the American League, the playoff picture is a bit more opaque. Yes, you have the defending AL Champion New York Yankees as the betting favorites at (+250), but not far behind are the Detroit Tigers at (+275), who made the postseason in 2024 for the first time in 10 years.
Some ghosts of the cheating Houston Astros remain in South Texas, and somehow, they continue to thrive there. At 5-1, we could see the 2017 and 2022 World Series Champions play spoiler.
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Betting Odds to Win the AL Pennant
New York Yankees: +250
Detroit Tigers: +275
Houston Astros: +500
Tampa Bay Rays: +1000
Seattle Mariners: +1200
Toronto Blue Jays: +1400
Minnesota Twins: +1600
Texas Rangers: +2000
Boston Red Sox: +2000
Cleveland Guardians: +2200
Kansas City Royals: +3300
Betting Picks to Win the AL Pennant
New York Yankees: +250
I tried my best not to include the betting favorite to win the AL Pennant in my picks, but the New York Yankees are at the top of the American League in both hitting and pitching. First place in the AL in OBP, SLG, and OPS, all by a good margin, the Aaron Judge-led Yankees’ lineup is a force.
The pitching staff ranks first in OBA, as well as second in both strikeouts and WHIP. They don't give up many long balls, and only the Cleveland Guardians have thrown more shutouts.
With Judge hitting .367 still after playing in every game, you can’t ignore the Bronx Bombers are better than 2-1.
Houston Astros: +500
It may be old news, but cheaters win, at least in the short term. If a team is willing to be so blatant about it, they will do it again, or at the very least, we know they will try very hard.
The Astros are one of the most well-balanced teams in baseball, but they're led this season by their pitching staff, who are second in the majors with a .220 OBA. Houston is first in the MLB in strikeouts as well as WHIP.
Their power numbers are in the middle of the league, but the best team batting average in the American League is worth noting.
It's not like the Tigers don't, but Houston and New York are both balanced. What sets these two apart from Detroit is their recent postseason experience.
Betting Odds to Win the NL Pennant
Los Angeles Dodgers: +145
New York Mets: +500
Philadelphia Phillies: +550
Chicago Cubs: +650
San Francisco Giants: +1000
San Diego Padres: +1400
Atlanta Braves: +1600
Arizona Diamondbacks: +2800
Milwaukee Brewers: +3300
St. Louis Cardinals: +3500
Cincinnati Reds: +5500
Betting Picks to Win the NL Pennant
Philadelphia Phillies: +550
I know the LA Dodgers are a great team and all, but these betting odds to win the NL Pennant are ridiculous. The implied probability of LA winning the Pennant is roughly 40%.
Philadelphia, though, at (+550), has an implied probability of just 15% to win the NL, and that's simply not true.
The Phillies' pitching staff has thrown an MLB-best, by far, 42 quality starts in 78 games. In comparison, the betting favorite Dodgers have just 22.
They left a sour taste in everyone's mouth after perceivably overachieving for a couple of years when they lost 3-1 to the Mets in the 2024 Divisional Series. Prior to that, they barely lost to the surging Diamondbacks in the NLCS and won the NL Pennant the year before.
The Cubs don't have the pitching, the San Francisco Giants don't have the hitting, and the Mets will choke. That leaves Philly in a series with the Dodgers, and I promise you they won't be as high (+550) to win a potential SoCal series.
San Diego Padres: +1400
I sold the Philly pick not because they match up so well with LA but more because they're the second-best team in the NL with better than 5-1 odds to win the Pennant.
The selling point of the San Diego Padres is their talent level being potentially higher top to bottom than any team in the league, but more so because they're in the same division as the Dodgers.
They know them, and if their most recent series with all the hit batsmen tells us anything about a brooding rivalry, we have an exciting end to the 2025 baseball season on the way. The CT scan on Fernando Tatis Jr's hand came back this week and was negative for any fractures.
The Padres have underachieved at the plate this season, but I believe their talent will come through for them down the stretch. The pitching is already there for them, though, as they lead the majors with 12 shutouts thrown already, four more than any other team in the majors.
Give me Jackson Merrill, Tatis Jr, and Manny Machado to make something happen at the plate for San Diego in the postseason.
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