Skinner Odds to Win the 2023 Kentucky Derby with Expert Predictions

by Joey House - 4/30/2023

Sometimes athletes simply need a chance to showcase their talents and achieve greatness. Everyone knows the story of Wally Pipp missing a day because of a headache and never starting another game for the Yankees, as Lou Gehrig got his chance. Or when the New England Patriots starting QB, Drew Bledsoe, went down with injury, some second-year QB who had been drafted in the 6th round and had never completed a pass in the NFL came in and went on to become the winningest quarterback in NFL history. All they needed was a chance.

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The 2023 Kentucky Derby could have a similar storyline. There was a terrible accident on April 27th that led to the euthanization of the Kentucky Derby entry Wild on Ice. Long-shot Skinner (50-1 at the time) looks to make the most of this unfortunate turn of events.

Last Race: Racing against a Derby favorite Practical Move in the (G1) Santa Anita Derby, Skinner bumped lightly at the start before he settled in seventh before the first turn, but he stayed with the pack. He made a bold move with Mandarin Hero at the seven-furlong marker. He finished gaining, and if the length would have been that of the Derby, both Skinner and Mandarin Hero would have caught the winner Practical Move. Skinner finished 3rd but ran a very smart race.

Previous Races: Skinner debuted in MSW last July at Del Mar. Despite finishing a middling 5th, trainer John Shirreffs was undeterred and entered Skinner into the (G1) Futurity. Going against such good competition spurred Skinner on, and he finished in the money in 3rd. A month later, he entered the (G1) American Pharoah but regressed and finished 6th. He broke his maiden the next time out in another MSW at Santa Anita. From there, it was onto the (G2) San Felipe, where he finished third again to winner Practical Move. A month later was the (G1) Santa Anita Derby.

Trainer: Trainer Shirreffs has a history of producing long-shot winners at the Kentucky Derby. He famously trained Giacomo, who won the 2005 "Run for the Roses" at odds of 50-1, surprising many in the horse racing world. This victory solidified Shirreffs' reputation as a skilled trainer capable of bringing out the best in his horses, even when the odds seem stacked against them.

Jockey: This is the only move that I don't feel confident about. Shirreffs is replacing a Triple Crown-winning jockey in Victor Espinoza with Kentucky Derby rookie Juan Hernandez. While he may be a first-timer in the Derby, Hernandez is a very accomplished jockey who has a 2023 winning percentage of 24%. The train of thought here is that perhaps the horse has become accustomed to the previous jockey and will respond better to the new rider. I readily admit that Shirreffs knows much more in the horse racing world than I do, but this is a head-scratcher to me.

Breeding: Skinner was sired by the mighty Curlin, who not only won multiple graded stakes but also finished on the board in all three Triple Crown races in 2007. While damsires Malibu Moon's racing career may not have been widely successful, his progeny have produced more than $150,730,000 in lifetime winnings. Skinner's breeding gets a bit of a knock because of his mother's side, but Curlin's offspring have shown to be very competitive.

Odds: Skinner started the week not knowing if he would get a chance to race on May 6th or not. Even with this uncertainty, his 50-1 odds were still lower than 4 of the horses in the field. After the tragic accident with Wild on Ice, Skinner's odds immediately were halved to 25-1.

Prediction: Because of the wide-open nature of the Kentucky Derby, it's helpful to look for outsiders that can contend. Skinner's running style is well-suited for the Derby's length. He has an outside shot of winning but figures to factor more in the exotic bets.

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