AAA 400 at Dover, Odds and Predictions
by Tony Sink - 9/26/2014
The first elimination race will be held at Dover International Speedway, which is a one-mile concrete oval with a lot of banking in the corners also known as the Monster Mile. The last five Chase spots are going to be up for grabs as all of the drivers from eighth to sixteenth are all within twelve points of each other. A mistake on the track or on pit road will end the season for a driver, so all of the drivers who are in the eighth thru sixteenth positions will be on edge this weekend.
Having a car that handles well will be important this week. Teams that set their cars up to turn in all four corners will dominate the race. The cream usually rises to the top at Dover, so focus on selecting a Chase driver to win it this week.
The Sprint Cup Series last raced at Dover in June. Jimmie Johnson dominated the race and should be on everyone’s radar this week. Johnson qualified fourth and led 272 of the 400 Laps.
Dover is similar to the race track last week at New Hampshire. Both are one-mile ovals, but the difference is Dover has more banking. The teams that dominated last week’s race at New Hampshire should run well Sunday.
Here are my picks for the AAA 400 at Dover...
Tony’s Pick: Jimmie Johnson (5 to 1)
Even though Penske Racing drivers Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano have combined to win the past three NASCAR Sprint Cup races, Jimmie Johnson comes in as the Vegas favorite. He is gunning for a season sweep at Dover this weekend, and Johnson is also going for a three-peat at the track after winning the September race last year. Overall, he is a nine-time winner at the track with three victories coming in the last five races. Meanwhile, Johnson leads all drivers with a 4.8 average finish at Dover since 2012 and has led a series-high 990 laps over the stretch. Jimmie is my pick to get back to his winning ways this weekend at Dover.
Top 3 Finish: Jeff Gordon (6 to 1)
Jeff has four career wins at this track and has finished in the top five in three of his last four starts here. Gordon has finished fourth and second in his last two September starts at the track so he should bounce back from his rough outing at New Hampshire in a big way this weekend.
Stay Away: All drivers not with Penske or Hendrick Motorsports.
Seems illogical to think anyone but a Penske or Hendrick Motorsports driver can win this race.
2014 Doc’s NASCAR Selections
• $100 bettors up +$5,112 on the season
• 64-40 (62%) on the season with our driver match-up selections
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