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Wurth 400 Picks, Odds & Predictions 5/4/2025

by Josh Schonwald - 5/2/2025

Würth 400

Sunday, May 4, 2025

3:30 PM EST

Texas Motor Speedway

Fort Worth, TX

With Talladega in the past, along with the banged-up cars and hurt egos, we can move on to Texas Motor Speedway to the Würth 400. Kyle Larson and William Byron will be looking forward to the return to an intermediate oval as both have already claimed a win this season and have both won a race at TMS since 2021. Either one of these drivers has a shot at taking the checkered flag in Fort Worth this weekend. In doing so, they would have an even great shot at making the playoffs this season. Of the last four races at Texas Motor Speedway, a Chevy driver has won, and this could be another one for the trophy room.

nascar picks Kyle Larson predictions best bet odds

Another driver to keep an eye on is Denny Hamlin. Hamlin has won at Darlington and Martinsville over the last few weeks, and he is absolutely capable of ending the Chevrolet streak that's going on. Over the course of the last few seasons, Hamlin has done very well racing intermediate ovals. In fact, he is the last Toyota driver to have won this race. Tyler Reddick also has a win in Texas that came in 2022. In his last three starts in Texas, Reddick has led for over 140 laps. He placed in the top 10 at Homestead and in Darlington, Reddick finished in the top 5. With all of the above drivers having done so well at intermediate ovals and had good runs this season, there is a great chance that we either see a Toyota or Chevrolet finishing at the top of the heap.

Jack Link's 500 Recap

A pass on the last lap cemented Austin Cindric's 1st place finish in the Jack Link's 500 in Talladega. The win happened in dramatic fashion, as many do in Talladega, and gave Team Penske and Cindric their first win of the 2025 season. It was truly a nailbiter going down the stretch with Cindric and Ryan Preece going back and forth exchanging leads five times in the final six laps of the race. The No. 2 Team Penske Ford was able to take a front hood lead and win by 0.022 seconds, while both drivers finished ahead of the hard pursuing Kyle Larson and William Byron.

That said, Preece and fifth place finisher Joey Logano were both disqualified during post-race inspections for technical violations. Both drivers were disqualified for issues with their spoilers.

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NASCAR Playoff Standings

Austin Cindric's win propelled him into the playoff race and has him sitting in the fifth spot with a win and 219 points. He also has a top 5 finish and 3 top 10 finishes. Christopher Bell still sits out front with three wins on the young season and 307 points while Kyle Larson holds down the number 2 spot with two wins and 358 points. Denny Hamlin (two wins) and William Byron (one win) round out spots three and four with 337 points and 389 points respectively.

Würth 400 Odds

Kyle Larson - +500
William Byron - +600
Tyler Reddick - +750
Denny Hamlin - +800
Christopher Bell - +800
Ryan Blaney - +900
Joey Logano - +1400
Chase Briscoe - +1400
Kyle Busch - +1600
Bubba Wallace - +1800
Chase Elliott - +2000
Alex Bowman - +2200
Ty Gibbs - +2500
Ross Chastain - +2800
Josh Berry - +3000
Chris Buescher - +3000
Brad Keselowski - +3500
Daniel Suarez - +4000
Carson Hocevar - +7000
Austin Cindric - +8000
Ryan Preece - +9000
Noah Gragson - +9000
Erik Jones - +9000
Austin Dillon - +9000
AJ Allmendinger - +10000

While Kyle Larson is on a hot streak, William Byron has performed well at Texas Motor Speedway. He's riding a four race Top 10 streak and has led for over 100 laps in those races. He earned a win at TMS two seasons ago and has also been racing well. I like his chances this weekend.

Josh's Pick: Take William Byron (+600)

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