NBA Rookie of the Year Props: Odds and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 6/30/2010
Now that the NBA Draft is done and we know where the youngsters will be playing next year it's natural for our thoughts to turn towards who will win the Rookie of the Year next year. Luckily, Bodog has posted some odds so we don't have to stop at just thinking about it - we can bet on it as well if we want. Here's a look at some of the more interesting prices and some predictions.
John Wall (5/2) - It's no surprise that the No. 1 pick is the favorite. He landed on a team that isn't as bad as teams that have No. 1 picks often are, he's NBA ready, and he's going to get the ball a whole lot right from the start. Like we saw with the Bulls a couple of years ago, we can expect the Washington offense to be built around Wall from the start. I'd like his chances even more if Gilbert Arenas gets traded between now and the start of the season because that would allow Wall to get even more touches. With so much salary cap space bound to go unused after the free agent frenzy this week there's a good chance that Arenas will be on the move. He's a clear and deserving favorite.
Blake Griffin (11/4) - Griffin is an intriguing option, but I sure don't like him at this price. After a year off thanks to a serious knee injury Griffin will be a step slow physically, out of tune with the speed of the game, and mentally unsure of his durability after the first major injury he has had to deal with. That's all a particular concern given that his game is built around being so physical and intrusive. On the plus side, he has some pretty nice pieces around him in L.A. - from Baron Davis and Eric Gordon in the backfield to Chris Kaman with him up front. There's talk that Joe Johnson could end up a Clipper as well. Griffin is a decent choice, but he'd be much more attractive at 5/1 or so.
Evan Turner (3/1) - Turner is NBA ready, and he's a real competitor, so he stands a good chance of being a part of this race. I'm not attracted to this price for a couple of reasons, though. First, I think that Turner's impact is going to be most felt on defense - he and Jrue Holliday make a potent defensive combination - and defense doesn't win awards like this. More significantly, with Andre Iguodala still in Philadelphia I'm not sure that Turner will get as much offensive action as he needs because the two fill similar offensive roles. If Iguodala is traded then Turner's candidacy would get a major boost.
DeMarcus Cousins (6/1) - The last few years we have seen that the Rookie of the Year has made noise from the outset - it doesn't pay to slowly build into your role. Though I think Cousins has a chance to be great -- and I can't wait to see what he and Tyreke Evans are doing together in a few years -- I just don't think that Cousins is going to get enough playing time early on to establish himself in what should be a blistering race from the start. The Kings picked up Samuel Dalembert, so I expect them to bring Cousins along slowly. They are in the relatively luxurious position of not needing his offense immediately - Dalembert, Carl Landry, and Jason Thompson can fill the gap while Cousins find his feet. Cousins would be a much better bet for sophomore of the year than Rookie of the Year in my eyes.
Wesley Johnson (15/2) - Oustide of Wall this is where I would put my money because I think Johnson best represents value here. Johnson is ready to play right away, and he's in a position in Minnesota in which he is going to get a lot of chances to perform. He doesn't have the upside of some of the real stars of this class, but he has the talent and the situation to do well quickly. Emeka Okafor is a good comparison in my eyes - he wasn't the most talented in his class, but he hit the ground running and his team needed just what he could offer, so he won the ROY. Brandon Roy is another guy who got off to a fast start given a perfect situation, but in hindsight he was also helped by being part of a lousy draft year - a luxury Johnson isn't likely to enjoy.
Greg Monroe (10/1) - Monroe is another guy who is in a good fit in terms of readiness and team need. The Pistons need the next generation of big man badly, so he'll get all of the opportunities that he is ready for. The problem, though, is that he's likely to contribute on the boards in a significant way before he adds a whole lot of points, and players who score points are always flashier for voters than guys who add numbers in other categories.
Cole Aldrich (18/1) - This is the longest price on the board, but it's not nearly long enough to interest me. Aldrich fills a huge need in Oklahoma City, but the primary role isn't going to be offensive, and even if it was it's not like Aldrich is exactly a pure natural scorer. I expect Aldrich to be an effective journeyman type, and that's not the type of player that tends to win this award.
Most Recent NBA Handicapping
- LA Lakers Could be in Real Trouble with LeBron and AD Injuries
- Free NBA Picks Wednesday 1/20/2021 and Opening Line Report
- Free NBA Picks Friday 1/15/2021 and Opening Line Report
- Free NBA Picks Wednesday 1/13/2021 and Opening Line Report
- Free NBA Picks Friday 1/8/2021 and Opening Line Report
- Free NBA Picks Wednesday 1/6/2021 and Opening Line Report
- Free NBA Picks Friday 1/1/2021 and Opening Line Report
- Free NBA Picks Wednesday 12/30/2020 and Opening Line Report
- Free NBA Picks Friday 12/25/2020 and Opening Line Report
- Free NBA Picks Wednesday 12/23/2020 and Opening Line Report