College Football Predictions: Arizona at Oklahoma State Odds and Betting Picks
by Alan Matthews - 9/6/2011
Not a great first week of predictions in college football unfortunately, as the Oregon Ducks laid an egg against LSU and Miami (Fla.) looked like a team missing seven starters in losing to a Maryland squad that featured uniforms I can’t even begin to explain (but the word ‘vomit’ would be used in some form). We’ll do better this week.
And the week kicks off with a dandy on ESPN Thursday night as Arizona travels to No. 9 Oklahoma State in what could well be an annual rivalry starting next season as it appears that OSU could be headed to the Pac-12 along with Oklahoma and possibly Texas and Texas Tech to form college football’s first superconference. And those four would be put in a Pac-16 South, no doubt, with the two L.A. and Arizona schools.
If this matchup looks familiar, it should: Oklahoma State beat Arizona, 36-10, last Dec. 29 in the Alamo Bowl. Stud Cowboys receiver Justin Blackmon capped a brilliant season with nine catches for 117 yards and two touchdowns, including a 71-yard score. The Wildcats turned the ball over four times compared to no turnovers for OSU. QB Brandon Weeden was 25-of-41 for 240 yards and two TDs for Oklahoma State. Arizona’s Nick Foles was 32-for-50 for 280 yards with a TD and three interceptions. It was the Wildcats’ fifth straight loss. It was the first meeting between the schools since 1942.
Arizona at Oklahoma State Betting Storylines
Thursday’s game could easily be the highest-scoring of the week as it features two of the three top passers in the nation after Week 1 in Weeden and Foles. The latter had 412 yards on 34-for-42 passing with a career-high five touchdowns and no picks against Northern Arizona as the Cats won ,41-10. Arizona’s own star receiver, Juron Criner, caught a TD pass, finishing with six catches for 151 yards. However, the game was only 14-10 at halftime.
The Wildcats are breaking in an entirely new line, with just one career start spread among five new regulars before the opener against Northern Arizona. Coach Mike Stoops said he wasn’t ready to yet make a change at kicker even though Jaime Salazar missed a 46-yard field goal and one extra-point kick. 2010 kicker Alex Zendejas handled the game's final extra point Saturday.
Weeden was 24 of 39 for 388 yards, with three TDs and three interceptions in a 61-34 victory over Louisiana-Lafayette. Blackmon caught eight balls for 144 yards, but he was kept out of the end zone. He had scored a TD in 12 consecutive games. However, his 100-yard streak was extended to 13. The Cowboys didn’t appear to miss former offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen, now the head coach at West Virginia. Under Holgorsen last year the Cowboys averaged 520.2 yards per game. Under new OC Todd Monken, OSU had 666 yards against Louisiana-Lafayette, the ninth-best total in school history. While allowing 34 points to the Ragin' Cajuns might look like cause for concern, they didn't score an offensive touchdown until midway through the fourth quarter. OSU was 10-for-10 in red zone scoring chances. The Cowboys led the nation in red zone scoring efficiency last season.
Arizona at Oklahoma State Odds and Betting Trends
The line has opened at OSU -14 with the total at 64.5, according to college football odds. A little more than 60 percent of the early action is on OSU. Arizona is 4-0 ATS in its past four as a dog of more than 10.5 points. But the Cats have covered just one of their past five vs. teams with a winning record. OSU is 1-5 ATS in its past six at home as a favorite of at least 10.5. The ‘over’ is 4-0 in Arizona’s past four after a win. It is 5-1 in OSU’s past six nonconference games.
College Football Predictions: Arizona at Oklahoma State Betting Picks
Because it’s a Thursday night, expect some drama as that has been the case the past two years for OSU. In 2010, Oklahoma State kicked a field goal on the final play of the game and erased a pair of 14-point deficits in a 38-35 win over Texas A&M. In 2009, OSU fell behind Colorado, 21-10, on a Thursday night. But in the second half Weeden got the first significant snaps of his career and he rallied the Cowboys to a 31-28 victory.
OSU has won five of its past six against current Pac-12 members. It will be six of seven. I’d probably wait and hope that number drops to 13.5 and then pounce, but then again it could also climb to 14.5. Still think the Pokes win by at least three touchdowns. And the only way I can see this game not going ‘over’ is if it’s shortened by lightning, but the weather forecast looks good. So take the ‘over’.
Doc’s Sports football picks got off to a great start for Week 1 of college football (4-1, $100 bettors up nearly $1,400) and this college football handicapper is licking his chops for the Week 2 lines this weekend. Doc will have a full card of college and NFL picks and he expects another huge weekend. Click Here for more information.
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