MLB Odds: Yankees at Reds Predictions and Betting Picks
by Darin Zank - 6/20/2011
The New York Yankees and Cincinnati Reds both made the playoffs last year, and both find themselves in the thick of their divisional races this season. So the Yanks will be looking to continue their recent good play while the Reds will be looking to kickstart their offense when these two teams get together for a three-game series at Great American Ballpark starting Monday night.
The Yanks just won a series in Chicago by taking the last two games of a three-game set from the Cubs. Since getting swept three games by Boston a couple weeks ago, New York has won eight of its last 10 games. The Yanks are also now 5-1 and averaging seven runs per game since SS Derek Jeter went on the disabled list with a pulled calf.
Heading into Monday's play the Yankees, at 41-29, sit in second place in the AL East, a game and a half back of the division-leading Red Sox.
Cincy just dropped two of three games in a low-scoring series at home to Toronto, scoring a total of four runs in the process. And over the course of their last 11 games the Reds have been held to three runs or fewer eight times, which has helped eight of Cincy's last 11 games play “under” their posted totals.
So the Reds, at 38-35, enter this week in third place in the NL Central, two games back of division-leading Milwaukee and St. Louis.
The Yanks will throw Ivan Nova in Monday's series opener (7:10 p.m. EST, ESPN), newcomer Brian Gordon Tuesday (7:10 p.m. EST) and Freddy Garcia Wednesday (12:35 p.m. EST). The Reds will counter with Johnny Cueto, Travis Wood and Mike Leake, respectively.
New York is 8-5 in Nova's starts this year, 1-0 in Gordon's start and 6-6 in Garcia's starts. And the totals are a combined 9-15 when those three hit the hill.
Cincinnati is 7-4 in Leake's starts this year, 5-3 in Cueto's starts, but 7-8 in Wood's starts. And while the totals are 3-4 in Cueto's starts, they're a combined 17-9 when Leake and Wood start.
Monday's Pitching Matchup
Nova allowed four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings vs. Texas five days ago, but got the win anyway. Over the course of his last three starts he's given up eight ERs on 19 hits in 18 2/3 IP. Nova has never pitched vs. the Reds.
Cueto has been hot, stringing together four quality starts in a row, allowing just four ERs on 19 hits in his last 29 IP. He's started one game in his career vs. the Yankees, but that was three years ago.
Tuesday's Pitching Matchup
The 32-year-old Gordon came to the Yanks last week from the Philadelphia organization, and gave up two ERs on seven hits in 5 1/3 innings vs. Texas in his first start for New York. Earlier this year, pitching at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Gordon went 5-0 with a 1.14 ERA, allowing 39 hits in 55 innings and posting a stellar 56/7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His only other Major League action came three years ago in a three-game stint with the Rangers.
Wood owns a 5.11 ERA on the season, but over his last two starts, vs. the Giants and Dodgers, he's allowed three ERs in 14 IP. But he's been a bit wild, walking eight over those last two outings. Wood has never faced the Yankees.
Wednesday's Pitching Matchup
Garcia has bounced back after a bad outing vs. Boston two weeks ago to hold the Indians and White Sox to four ER sin 13 2/3 innings over his last two starts. On the season Garcia is seven-for-13 in quality starts. He has no recent history pitching vs. the Reds.
Leake is nine-for-11 in quality starts this season, and has allowed just five ERs in his last three starts, covering 23 innings. He has never pitched vs. New York.
New York ranks second in the majors in team on-base percentage at .346 and scoring at 5.3 RPG, and leads baseball in team slugging at .454 and in homers with 105. Yankees pitching, meanwhile, ranks ninth in team ERA at 3.55 but only 22nd in quality starts with 37. Luckily for New York its bullpen ranks fourth with a 2.81 ERA.
Cincy ranks fifth in team OBP at .334, tenth in slugging at .398 and third in scoring at 4.8 RPG. Also, while Reds pitching ranks just 22nd in ERA at 4.08, they rank sixth in quality starts with 44. The Cincinnati bullpen ranks 11th with a 3.46 ERA, but that pen has pitched more innings than all but four other ML teams, and it's walked more batters, 119, than all but one other team.
The Yanks and Reds last met three years ago, when Cincy went into the Bronx and took two of three games. So, obviously, these two teams don't have much of a history.
AL Takes Interleague Lead
American League teams won 11 of 14 interleague series over the weekend, and 29 of the 42 games. So on the year the AL, which has won the interleague season series seven years in a row, has won 18 of 28 interleague series, and 50 of 84 interleague games.
MLB Odds: Yankees at Reds Betting Series Odds and Trends
As of Monday morning Bodog is listing Cincinnati as a -140 favorite to win this series, with the Yanks getting +110 as the underdogs, according to the most current MLB odds as of deadline.
New York is 18-12 on the road this season.
Cincinnati is 21-17 at home this season.
The “over/unders” are 32-32 in Yankees games this season.
The “over/unders” are 40-30 in Reds games this season.
The “over/unders” are 22-13 in games played at Great American Ballpark this season, which are averaging 9.8 RPG.
MLB Picks: Yankees at Reds Predictions
On paper this series looks pretty even, from the home/road records to the pitching matchups to the offensive statistics. But the Yanks are a little hotter at the moment, and have the edge in the bullpen. And with New York getting a little bit on the price, we'll take the Bombers to win this series.
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