MLB Picks: Phillies vs. Brewers Betting Predictions and Odds
by Darin Zank - 9/8/2011
The Philadelphia Phillies are going to win the National League's Eastern Division, and they're closing in on clinching the best record in the NL. The Milwaukee Brewers, meanwhile, are trying to sew up the NL Central Division title. So, in what could be a preview of the upcoming National League Championship Series, Milwaukee hosts Philly for a four-game series at Miller Park beginning Thursday night.
Setting the Scene
The Phillies just completed a three-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves in Philly with a 3-2 victory Wednesday. Therefore, Philadelphia, at a ML-best 91-48, leads the NL East by 10.5 games over second-place Atlanta.
Milwaukee, on the other hand, just dropped two of three games in St. Louis, scoring a total of six runs in the series. Still, the Brewers, at 85-59, lead the NL Central by 8.5 games over the second-place Cardinals.
And Philly leads Milwaukee by 8.5 games in the battle for the best record in the National League.
In the only previous meeting between these two teams this season the Brewers took two of three games in Philly back in April, outscoring the Phillies 18-7. Shaun Marcum held Philly to one unearned run in six innings in that series opener, and the Brewers scored three times in the top of the 12th to win, 6-3. Milwaukee then clipped Roy Halladay for six runs on 10 hits in Game 2, as Randy Wolf got the win by holding the Phillies scoreless for six innings. Philly then salvaged the series finale, scoring three in the sixth off Chris Narveson and one in the eighth off the Brewer bullpen to win, 4-3.
Last year Philly took five of six games from Milwaukee.
The Pitching Matchups
Thursday night it'll be a battle of lefties as Cole Hamels starts for Philly against Narveson for Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. Eastern). Friday Halladay goes up against Marcum (8:10 p.m. Eastern). Saturday two more lefties go when Cliff Lee opposes Wolf (7:10 p.m. Eastern). And Sunday Vance Worley hits the hill for the Phillies vs. Yovani Gallardo for the Brew Crew (2:10 p.m. Eastern, TBS).
Philly is 17-10 when Hamels starts this season, with the MLB totals going 8-15. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 15-10 for Narveson.
The Phillies are 21-7 when Halladay starts this year, while the Brewers are 15-14 for Marcum. But while the MLB totals are 18-10 in Halladay's starts, in part because the totals on more than half his games have been posted at seven or less, the O/Us are 9-19 in Marcum's starts, in part because the totals in more than half his starts have been eight or above.
Philly is 19-9 when Lee starts this season. Milwaukee is 17-12 when Wolf starts, with the O/Us going 10-19.
And the Phillies are an amazing 16-2 when Worley starts this year, the totals 12-6, while the Brewers are 17-13 when Gallardo starts.
Bettors Should Know
Philadelphia is a ML-best 28-9 in games in which their opponents have started left-handed pitchers this season, while Milwaukee is just 16-16 vs. lefties. But the Brewers are a ML-best 69-43 vs. righties.
On the injury front Philly 2B Chase Utley got hit in the head with a pitch Wednesday night, and he did not make the trip with the team to Milwaukee. And while SS Jimmy Rollins may come off the disabled list this week, he probably won't see much action right away.
Phillies vs. Brewers MLB Betting Odds and Trends
As of early Thursday morning Bodog is listing Philly and Hamels as -142 favorites for Thursday night's game, with an ‘over/under’ of eight. Bodog is also lining the Phillies as -165 faves to win this series, with Milwaukee getting +135. And Bodog is offering Philly at 5/7 to win the National League pennant, with the Brewers getting 7/2.
Philly is a ML-best 42-26 on the road this season.
Milwaukee is a ML-best 50-19 at home this season.
The ‘over/unders’ are 33-32 in games played at Miller Park this season, which are averaging 8.5 runs per.
MLB Picks: Phillies vs. Brewers Predictions
Philly is the hotter team at the moment, and they're the better team. But they might be without both Rollins and Utley. And the Brewers are nasty at home. So we'll go with the Brew Crew (and the price) to win this series.
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