American Athletic Conference Weekly Betting Report (Plus Free Pick)
by Dave Schwab - 11/26/2013
I have gone against Rutgers a number of times this season in my AAC ‘pick of the week,’ and this past Thursday that strategy paid off again for my biggest win of the year. No. 19 Central Florida came into that game as a 17-point home favorite over the Scarlet Knights and easily covered in a 41-17 victory that moved it one step closer to claiming the first-ever American Athletic Conference title.
This 5-Unit play using Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System ran my year-to-date total to +26 units, which equates to a profit of $2510 on a $100-per-unit bet. My goal was to deliver a $1,000 profit on my AAC picks over the course of the entire season, but that goal has now been raised to topping $3,000 over the final two weeks of games.
The following is a brief betting report for all the Week 14 games in the AAC as well as my top pick of the week. All the lines quoted have been provided by 5Dimes.
Friday, Nov. 29
South Florida Bulls vs. No. 19 Central Florida Knights (-27)
Total Line: 49.5
The Bulls managed to score only six points in last week’s 10-point loss to SMU as three-point home underdogs. They are now ranked 121st in the nation in scoring with an average of 13.9 points a game. That helps explain a 2-8 straight up record overall and a 2-4 record in conference play. They are 4-6 against the spread, and the total has stayed “under” in seven of their 10 games.
UCF remains in the driver’s seat in the AAC with a perfect 6-0 SU mark in conference play. The Knights are 9-1 SU (7-3 ATS) on the year behind an offense that is scoring an average of 35.8 points a game complementing a defense that is ranked 19th in the nation in points allowed (20.2). They have won their six conference games by an average of 14.5 points.
Saturday, Nov. 30
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-3) vs. Connecticut Huskies
Total Line: 49
Rutgers needs to win one of its final two games to become bowl eligible after posting a 5-5 SU mark in its first 10 games. The Scarlet Knights are 1-4 SU in their last five games and 2-4 in conference play. They have gone just 3-7 ATS after failing to cover in five of their last six games. During this slide, the defense has allowed an average of 37.2 points a game.
The Huskies notched their first victory of the season this past Saturday with a 28-21 win over Temple as 6.5-point road underdogs. It was the first time all year that the offense scored more than 21 points. Overall, Connecticut is averaging 17.4 points a game while allowing an average of 33.6 points a game on defense.
Temple Owls vs. Memphis Tigers (-8.5)
Total Line: 47
The Owls’ loss last Saturday dropped them to 1-10 SU on the year, but they are still a healthy 7-4 ATS. They are still searching for their first conference win after losing the first seven AAC games they have played. Temple’s loss to UConn was the first time in the last seven games that the team failed to cover the spread. The total has stayed under in four of those seven games.
Memphis is 3-7 SU on the year and 6-4 ATS. It is coming off a 24-17 loss to No. 20 Louisville as a 23.5-point road underdog. The Tigers have had their fair share of trouble finding the end zone this season with an average of 20.3 points a game, but their defense is ranked 23rd in the country in points allowed (20.9). It is little wonder that the total has stayed under in eight of the 10 games.
AAC Pick of the Week
SMU Mustangs vs. Houston Cougars (-8)
Total Line: 61
The Mustangs have strung together four wins in their last five games to improve to an even 5-5 SU on the year. They are also 5-5 ATS, and the total has gone “over” in five of their last seven games. SMU is averaging 30.8 points a game, but this number has jumped to 34.4 points during this five-game run. The Mustangs are ranked 105th in the nation in points allowed in giving up an average of 34.9 a game.
Houston started the season 5-0 SU. However, since losing to BYU 47-46 in Week 8, it has gone 2-4 SU in its last six games. While the offense has struggled to score in three straight losses, it is still averaging 33.9 points a game overall. The Cougars’ passing attack is averaging 287.6 yards a game behind quarterback John O’Korn. He has thrown for 2,644 yards and 24 touchdowns in relief of an injured David Piland.
While Houston could have trouble covering the eight-point spread in this game, both of these teams should have little trouble taking this game over the total line.
3-Unit Play Take Houston vs. SMU OVER 61 (Friday, Nov. 29, noon)
Year to Date Record: 10-3 (+ 26 units +$2510)
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