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2026 SMU Mustangs Football Predictions with Betting Odds and Best Bets

by Ryan Cobbett - 8/19/2026

SMU Mustangs football predictions Kevin Jennings

The SMU Mustangs cracked the playoffs in their inaugural season as a Power Four program. While it was short lived, it marked a major milestone for the program. While the Mustangs did not reach the same heights last season, they demonstrated that they can be a consistent threat at the highest level. This season, they are looking to replenish the trenches and rebound after losing both of their coordinators to other schools. SMU still has Kevin Jennings leading their offense, and if some of the other players can step up around him, look for SMU to once again cause some havoc in the ACC.

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SMU Mustangs Football Summary of Last Season

The Mustangs failed to return to the playoffs last season. Unfortunately for SMU, they accumulated four losses by a combined 18 points. They began the season going 2-2 with losses against Baylor in double-overtime and a road loss to TCU. After that stretch, they won their next three games against Syracuse, Stanford, and Clemson and they didn’t score less than 30 points or allow more than 24. Unfortunately, their streak was interrupted at the hands of Wake Forest as the Mustangs were upset 13-12. They would rebound nicely from that bad loss to the Demon Deacons by upsetting Miami in overtime and picking up wins against Boston College and Louisville. SMU would lose their season finale against Cal 38-35. After posting an 8-4 regular season, the Mustangs took on and beat Arizona in the Trust & Will Holiday Bowl.

The Mustangs ranked in the Top Five in the ACC in YPG as they averaged 416.9 YPG. They also averaged 32.2 PPG. Jennings led the offense with 3,641 passing yards. He completed just over 66% of his passes and threw 26 touchdowns, though he did throw 13 interceptions. Jennings also added four rushing touchdowns. TJ Harden led the ground game with 787 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns. Chris Johnson Jr. finished second on the Mustangs in rushing yards with 479, and he and Derrick McFall both finished with four rushing touchdowns. Jordan Hudson was the team’s leading receiver with 766 receiving yards. He also finished with six receiving touchdowns. Romello Brinson and Yamir Knight each tallied over 630 receiving yards with Knight adding five touchdowns and Brinson added another three.

As for the SMU defense, they were a huge weak spot for last year’s team. They allowed nearly 400 YPG, though they did manage to hold opponents to just 20.5 PPG. Ahmaad Moses led the team with 104 tackles and five interceptions while also adding a sack and three pass deflections. Isaiah Nwokobia added 80 tackles, two interceptions, and seven pass deflections. Isaiah Smith led the SMU defense with 8.5 sacks while also recording 53 tackles, one pass deflection, and one forced fumble. Cameron Robertson and Jeffrey M’ba added five sacks while Terry Webb added another 5.5 sacks.

2026 SMU Mustangs Football Key Additions/Losses

The Mustangs saw just one player drafted in the NFL Draft. Tight end Matthew Hibner was drafted in the fourth round by the Baltimore Ravens. The Mustangs also lost Johnson Jr. to Clemson, and edge rusher Billy Walton III to Oklahoma State. Harden, Hudson, Smith, Robertson, Webb, and M’ba all signed as undrafted free agents and are currently with NFL teams. Brinson, Moses, and Nwokobia also graduated.

While the team lost some big-time contributors on both sides of the ball, SMU is touting a 62% return production mark that ranks 22nd in college football. A significant portion of that production is coming on offense with 66% of the offensive production returning from last year. The Mustangs also made some moves in the transfer portal by adding tight end Theo Melin Ohrstrom (Texas A&M), running back Kendrick Raphael (California), wide receiver Yannick Smith (Eastern Carolina), tight end Randy Pittman Jr. (Florida State), defensive lineman Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder (Kansas State), and cornerback Jayvon Thomas (Texas A&M).

2026 SMU Mustangs Football Schedule Breakdown

It won’t be long before we get a true look at just how good the Mustangs will be this season. They open up with a tough road game to Tallahassee to take on Florida State. Two weeks later they have to travel to Louisville to take on their first ranked opponent. The middle of the season will be awfully kind to them as they will play Missouri State, Boston College, Virginia, and California at home in four consecutive games (with a bye week sandwiched in the middle). Unfortunately, then it gets tough down the stretch as SMU will travel in three of their final five games. Their final five games are at Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, at Notre Dame, and at Stanford.

2026 SMU Mustangs Football X-Factors/Big Questions

Coaching Changes:

As mentioned in the opener, the Mustangs are going to have to navigate this season with two new coordinators under Rhett Lashlee. While Lashlee should provide some consistency for Jennings and the offense, there will certainly be an adjustment on defense. These coaching changes can alter the momentum of a program, just ask Dabo Swinney.

Who Steps Up?

Jennings will have a lot of experience in this offense, but he will need teammates at skill positions to step up. Last season, the Mustangs ground game was less than impressive. If they can establish the run, and with that an explosive running back, that will take the pressure off of Jennings and balance out the offense. This will be a crucial variable to follow along with this season.

2026 SMU Mustangs Football Notable Odds:

National Championship: +12500

ACC Champion: +750

Heisman Winner- Kevin Jennings: +8000

Predicted Win Total: 8.5 Games

2026 SMU Mustangs Football Predictions and Best Bets:

I think there are too many questions surrounding this team, and it is keeping me from getting behind them. The offense should be one of the best in the ACC, but the defense will be a huge question mark. As for the win total, I am taking the under. Their road schedule is brutal with trips to Florida State, Louisville, and Notre Dame, and I do not think they will be perfect at home against the likes of Virginia, Virginia Tech, and the rest of their home opponents. SMU will fall just short of hitting the over on their win total and they won’t make the playoffs, but they can certainly end the playoff hopes for some.

Prediction: Under 8.5 Wins, +114

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