American Athletic Conference Weekly Betting Report (Plus Free Pick)
by Dave Schwab - 8/27/2013
The remnants of a Big East Conference that was decimated through a number of defections decided to join forces with a group of teams from Conference-USA to form the American Athletic Conference, or AAC. This new conference could be thought of as a hybrid of a major and mid-major when it comes to the level of play, but there are bound to be some excellent betting opportunities on a few of each week’s games all season long.
The following is a brief betting report for all the Week 1 games as well as my top play of the week in the AAC. All the lines quoted have been provided by BetOnline. All of the picks will include a unit value based on Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System, and we will track the results all season. Play along with us as we plan to make at least $1,000 profit this season on these AAC betting picks!
Thursday, Aug. 29
Akron Zips vs. UCF Knights (-21)
Total Line: 55
The Zips struggled to a 1-11 straight up record last season, including a 0-8 SU record in the Mid-American Conference. They were better against the spread at 6-6 overall and a solid play on the road at 5-1 ATS. The Knights come into this matchup off a 10-4 SU record last season, including a 7-1 record in Conference-USA. UCF was 7-7 ATS last year, and the total went “over” in 10 of its 14 games.
Towson Tigers vs. Connecticut Huskies (-16.5)
Total Line: OFF
Towson went 6-2 in eight CAA Division IAA games last season, but it was 0-2 SU (1-1 ATS) in its only two games against D- IA programs. The Huskies finished 5-7 SU in 2012 with a 2-5 SU record in the Big East. They went 2-3-1 ATS at home, with the total staying “under” in five of the six games. Connecticut’s defense allowed just 19.8 points a game in 2012, but its offense only scored an average of 17.8 points
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (-9.5)
Total Line: 54.5
Rutgers earned a share of the Big East title last season at 5-2 SU, and it went 9-4 SU overall. It covered in seven of 13 games overall and was 4-3 ATS on the road. The total stayed under in five of those seven road games. The Bulldogs were 9-4 SU last season with a 7-1 record in the Mountain West. They were a bettor’s dream in 2012 with an 11-2 ATS record overall and a 6-1 ATS record at home.
Friday, Aug. 30
Texas Tech Red Raiders (-5.5) vs. SMU Mustangs
Total Line: 59
Texas Tech was 8-5 SU last season and 6-7 ATS, but behind the second-ranked passing offense in the country that helped generate 37.5 points a game, the total went over in eight of 12 games overall and in five of six games on the road. SMU finished its last season in C-USA with a 5-3 SU mark and it was 7-6 overall. The Mustangs went 8-5 ATS, including a profitable 6-1 ATS at home.
Southern University Jaguars vs. Houston Cougars (-40)
Total Line: OFF
The Jaguars are another D-IAA team playing out of the SWAC. They were 4-7 overall last season, including a 66-21 loss to New Mexico, which was the only D-IA team they faced. Houston makes the jump to the AAC after wrapping up its stint in C-USA with a 4-4 SU record in conference play and an overall record of 5-7 both SU and ATS. It averaged 32.4 points a game last season but allowed an average of 36 points on defense.
Saturday, Aug. 31
Temple Owls vs. No.14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-29.5)
Total Line: 52.5
Temple’s only season in the Big East after coming over from the MAC was forgettable to say the least. The Owls went 4-7 SU and ATS in 2012 with just two SU conference wins. The total went over in seven of 10 games. The Fighting Irish’s run all the way to BCS title game was not that profitable at 7-6 ATS verses a final record of 12-1 SU. They were a great team to bet when it came to the total line with 10 of 13 games staying under.
McNeese State Cowboys vs. South Florida Bulls (-20.5)
Total Line: OFF
The Cowboys step up in class from the D-IAA Southland Conference where they went 7-4 overall and 4-3 in conference play. They split a pair of road games both SU and ATS against Middle Tennessee and Texas- San Antonio. South Florida sunk to 3-9 SU overall in 2012 with a 1-6 record in the Big East. It failed to cover in eight of 12 games last season.
Ohio Bobcats vs. No. 9 Louisville Cardinals (-20)
Total Line: 58
Ohio was 9-4 SU overall last season with a perfect 5-0 record in nonconference play. However, it was just 5-8 ATS overall and 2-5 ATS on the road. Louisville is clearly the class of the AAC this season behind Heisman-hopeful quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. It went 11-2 SU last season and 5-2 SU in Big East play. The Cardinals were just 6-7 ATS, but they closed out the 2012 season with a stunning 33-23 victory over Florida in the Sugar Bowl as 14.5-point underdogs.
AAC Pick of the Week
4-Unit Play Take Cincinnati -10.5 over Purdue (Saturday, Aug. 31 12 p.m. ESPNU)
This could be the best matchup in the AAC on the Week 1 slate. The Big Ten’s Purdue Boilermakers find themselves in a rebuilding phase under new head coach Darrel Hazall after falling to 6-7 SU and ATS last year. The Bearcats have a new head coach as well with Tommy Tuberville now at the helm. They are coming off a solid 10-3 SU record in 2012 with a profitable 9-4 record ATS.
There are a number of questions with Purdue on both sides of the ball heading into this season opener while Tuberville inherits a program that is built to win in the new AAC right out of the gate. The Bearcats have been opened as 10.5-point home favorites in this matchup, with the total line set at 50.5. They have won seven of their last eight home games SU and have covered ATS in three of their last five games at home, making it even easier to lay the 10.5 points and take Cincinnati in this game.
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