2014 MLB Regular Season Props Picks and Predictions
by George Monroy - 3/27/2014
The MLB season officially kicked off on March 22 with an opening-day matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks in Sydney, Austria. The real season, however, does not begin until Monday, March 31, when most teams will begin play.
This year promises to be filled with drama and excitement as the MLB will have no shortage of intriguing storylines to carry the year. New York Yankees' captain, No. 2 Derek Jeter, will take his final bow as a major league player, Detroit Tigers' slugger Miguel Cabrera will look to continue his assault on the record book, while a slew of the other teams will try and make the pieces to the World Series puzzle fit.
And if that were not exciting enough, there will also be a season's worth of baseball games to bet on. Let's take a closer look at a few of the most intriguing regular-season prop bets on the market and make a few picks and predictions before the American opening day gets underway on Monday. All odds come from Sportsbook.ag.
Most regular-season home runs by any player
"Over" 45.5 (-115)
"Under" 45.5 (-115)
The most home runs by any player has gone over 45.5 in four of the last six years and in eight of the last 10 years. The only times there have been less than 45 home runs hit was in 2011 and 2012 when Jose Bautista and Miguel Cabrera hit 43 and 44 home runs, respectively. Taking the over is the strongest bet here, because at worst the home run number will hover around 40, and at best it will go way over.
Most regular-season hits by any player
Over 209.5 (-115)
Under 209 (-115)
Last season both Adrian Beltre and Matt Carpenter had 199 hits, but that was the only time the MLB hits leader had less than 210 hits since 2002. Pitching has improved over the last 10 years, and home runs are on a downswing, but the numbers point to an over on 209.5 hits. Again, this is another one of those bets where the worst-case scenario for hits is still very close to a winning number.
Most regular-season wins by any pitcher
Over 21 (-105)
Under 21 (-125)
Only four pitchers in either league have produced more than 21 wins over the last 10 years-Justin Verlander (2011), Cliff Lee (2008), Brandon Webb (2008) and Dontrelle Willis (2005). We live in an age where pitchers do not play a full nine innings anymore, and reaching the 22-victory mark is an astounding number all on its own. It feels like the under should be more than a -125 favorite. Don't expect any pitcher to get more than 20 wins this season; there is simply too much riding on a pitchers arm for a skipper to let them play that much.
Mike Trout regular-season home runs
Over 26 (-115)
Under 26 (-115)
Mike Trout is the best all-around player in baseball in the eyes of many fans and experts. The fourth-year player burst onto the scene two years ago and has been a hitting machine for the Los Angeles Angels. Trout hit 30 and 27 home runs during his second- and third-year with the team, respectively, and he is only looking better and better as Spring Training rolls on. Trout is the leading MVP candidate, so expect the young player to have another stellar year and go over 26 home runs.
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