NCAA Basketball Futures Odds: Two Huge Long Shots Worthy of Attention
by Ivey Walters - 11/27/2014
Since 2004, two extreme long shots have cashed in as the NCAA Men's Basketball National Champion. Ironically, both times it has been the Connecticut Huskies at 60-1 each season in 2011 and 2014. Both years, the Huskies rode on the heels of outstanding guard play and great coaching. In 2011, Kemba Walker singlehandedly put UConn on his back, making big shot after big shot in the NCAA Tournament. His playmaking ability allowed him to consistently get to the free throw line and distance the Huskies from their opponent, especially late in games.
Last year it was all about Shabazz Napier, who was stunningly able to follow the same blueprint as Walker for the Huskies.He was the go-to guy with the ball in his hands when it mattered most.It goes to show you how having All-American-caliber guard play can carry you in the month of March. Last season, the Connecticut Huskies were certainly not expected to win the National Championship, with most sports books, offshore and in Las Vegas, posting them at a whopping 60-1 to win it all to begin the season. UConn limped into the tournament, playing poorly in the AAC Tournament and barely making it out of the first round against St. Joseph's. Many people fail to remember that they probably should have lost that game. The Huskies were down three in the closing seconds when St. Joe's committed a monumental mental error by unnecessarily fouling on a lay-up attempt. The foul led to a three-point play that sent the game to overtime. The Huskies survived and never looked back, riding the momentum to a championship.
Now a new season has arrived, and we thought it appropriate to take a look at two teams who are not garnering much respect from oddsmakers. These teams could potentially make a deep run in the tournament and big profits for their backers.
West Virginia: 100-1
Bob Huggins' team has been extremely impressive thus far, and at 100-1 they may be worth a long shot futures wager. They play a full-court, pressure defensive style that the former champs couldn't handle. UConn committed 19 turnovers in last Sunday's matchup in Puerto Rico. They have tremendous size and length in their front court and utilize those guys to pressure the ball after a made basket or on out-of-bounds plays. They trap, they double team, and they make it extremely difficult for opponents to get into any kind of rhythm on offense. It is extremely difficult to get off quality shots on this team as their aggressive nature, aided by their size, can be a nightmare at times for opposing teams.
The full-court pressure they instill has even given teams problems just getting the ball across the half court line without committing a turnover. The Mountaineers are also extremely deep, which gives head coach Bob Huggins the luxury of mixing up his rotation in order to create the appropriate matchups that he feels gives his team the best chance to win. Depth and size in the NCAA Tournament is extremely important as the Mountaineers can keep coming at you in waves with fresh bodies to play their full-court-pressure style. It also protects Huggins from having to worry about foul trouble because he can just plug another big, able body into the game.
All that size and defense, combined with Juwan Staten, who is one of the best guards in the country, much like Shabazz Napier and Kemba Walker before him, make them a formidable foe for anyone. Staten is the catalyst on the offensive end. He can shoot, drive to the basket, and when double teamed he always finds the open man.
So far, West Virginia has shown they can knock down open perimeter shots when Staten is trapped on ball screens, which was a concern for this team entering the season. With the ball in Staten's hands, the Mountaineers have a true floor general who can handle the pressure. He has the ability to get to the free throw line late in games and close out opponents. Coaching is another ingredient critical to success in the Big Dance, and Bob Huggins is still one of the premiere coaches in college basketball. This is by far the best team Huggins has had in a while, and he can outcoach the best of them, as he did on Sunday. Kevin Ollie, last year's National Championship coach, had no answers for anything Huggins threw at him. I know it's early, but this team may be worth a look with the current odds so high this early in the season.
Miami-Florida: 60-1
Miami's inexperience may come into play for a postseason run in March, but they certainly have a lot of talent. They have eight new players this season, but that may be a good thing. Picked eighth in the ACC preseason poll, they have already shown doubters they are a much more worthy opponent than anticipated by creeping into the Top 25 this week.
Point guard Angel Rodriguez is already drawing comparisons to another Miami great, Shane Larkin, who is now playing in the NBA. Despite his size, he can really score and is averaging 16.6 points and 4.8 assists per game. He really does a great job of facilitating the offense and getting others involved. With Rodriguez handling the ball, much like Staten at West Virginia, the Miami offense is in good hands throughout the game.
Not only does Miami have great guard play with Rodriguez and Sheldon McClellan, who is also averaging over 16 points a game, but they have size and length up front that can cause nightmare matchup problems for opposing teams. They crash the glass with authority and are a great all-around rebounding team that excels at getting 50-50 balls. Their hustle and effort is tremendous, and they have shown a great aptitude for getting second-chance points on the offensive end.
Experience is still the question mark, but they have the right man at the helm in Jim Larranaga to guide these newcomers to a great season. Larranaga is an excellent coach as he was responsible for George Mason's run to the Elite Eight in 2006. Now he has a talented bunch and a lot to work with as the ACC schedule approaches. They won the Charleston Classic with ease and have already knocked off a Florida team that was ranked seventh in the nation on their home court. Billy Donovan had nothing but great things to say about this Miami team, and Rodriguez in particular.
This is certainly a team that can make a deep run in March if they continue to get better through conference play as I expect. Rodriguez is the star and can knock down free throws at the end of games to close out opponents, much like Napier did a year ago.Keep an eye on how the young Hurricanes progress throughout the season, but right now they certainly look worthy of a futures wager that could pay big dividends.
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