College Basketball Betting: Weekly Schedule Spot Fade Picks
by Aaron Smith - 2/23/2015
It's time for the 11th edition of the schedule spot fade plays weekly article in college basketball. Yet another bad week last week for the fade plays. Idaho State was a winner for those who took it at +13 on BetOnline's opening lines, but the Bookmaker opening line was +11, and that is how we are grading these plays. Cal Poly was a solid winner. UNC Wilmington fell apart in the second half. Maryland won but failed to cover the number. Butler was in a good spot, but they were freight trained by an impressive Xavier team on Saturday.
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Doc's Sports will be testing out an experiment this year on difficult/strange scheduling spot plays in college basketball. We wanted to put together a weekly article to track teams who are in difficult spots and see if fading those teams can be profitable. How will it work? We'll point out teams that are in odd spots and then suggest a 1-Unit play on that team. Since the lines are not available until the night before the game, we'll simply be recommending a play and then grading that play based on the opening line from Bookmaker. Each week we'll go back and look at the prior week's results and keep a running tally at the end of each article. This article is simply a test, and we hope it will be helpful to college basketball bettors.
The last three weeks have really hurt the spot plays record year to date. The end of the season is typically the best time of the year to find good scheduling spots, so we'll try to end on a positive note.
Play #1- Play on Utah State (Fade UNLV) on Tuesday, February 24
Winning at Utah State is no easy task. The Aggies are trying to send legendary coach Stew Morrill out with a winning streak. UNLV went to New Mexico and came out of The Pit with an impressive win. The Rebels made 10 out of 17 3-point attempts in that one. UNLV relies on the three heavily, and Utah State has allowed opponents to shoot only 30.9 percent from beyond the arc this year. UNLV has been inconsistent all year, and their second trip in a row to a tough road environment should prove too much to handle.
Play #2- Play on South Dakota (Fade Denver) on Wednesday, February 25
The Denver Pioneers have been a good fade on the road for the past few seasons. Denver is coming off a rare road win, but that was over Western Illinois, who is the worst team in the Summit League this year. South Dakota has been turning the corner this year with Craig Smith as their new coach. South Dakota already beat Denver on the road, and they should win and cover here. Jalen Love is "questionable" for this game for Denver, and if he isn't 100 percent that provides extra incentive to fade Denver.
Play #3- Play on UCSB (Fade UC Davis) on Thursday, February 26
The UC Davis Aggies are shooting 49 percent from 3-point range in the Big West so far this year! UC Davis has some tremendous long-range shooters, but that kind of shooting percentage from beyond the arc is nearly impossible to keep up all year long. UC Davis has had tough games against Long Beach State and Hawaii in their last two contests, but they ended up pulling out both of those games. The UCSB Gauchos have star Alan Williams back down low after missing significant time with an injury, and this is a good spot for an upset.
Play #4- Play on San Francisco (Fade St. Mary's) on Thursday, February 26
If there was ever a good situational betting spot, it's this one. St. Mary's held a big lead early in the second half at home against Gonzaga on Saturday and managed to not only lose their lead, but they failed to cover the +7.5. That game was the Gaels Super Bowl, and it's extremely easy to have a subpar performance in the next game after such a big disappointment. San Francisco has been playing better basketball in recent weeks as well. The Dons are tough to beat on their home floor.
Play #5- Play on Utah (Fade Arizona) on Saturday, February 28
I'm really looking forward to this game as a fan. It has tremendous story lines, and these are two very good teams. Utah lost in overtime at home last year against Arizona, and I suspect they have been wanting this game badly ever since. Arizona must play at Colorado on Thursday night. That means that Arizona will be playing their second game at elevation on Saturday in Utah. This is a significant disadvantage for the Wildcats. Two games in a row at altitude is tough for anyone, and finishing that swing against a Top-10 team is brutal. We'll fade Arizona in this spot.
Play #6- Play on Southeast Missouri State (Fade Austin Peay) on Saturday, February 28
There are several reasons to like this play. Austin Peay is already locked out of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. The Governors have far less to play for than Southeast Missouri State. Austin Peay will also be playing their third game of the week in this one thanks to a makeup of an earlier game that was cancelled due to inclement weather. We have a Governors team that should be ready for the season to end, and they'll be exhausted from a busy schedule. Southeast Missouri State will be playing their final home game, and the Redhawks have shown signs of life late in the season.
Play #7- Play on St. Peter's (Fade Iona) on Sunday, March 1
The Iona Gaels know they need to win the MAAC Conference Tournament if they are going to get back into the NCAA Tournament. They have already wrapped up the regular season title in the conference. I'm not sure they'll be all that motivated for this game. It's Senior Day for St. Peter's, and their best players are seniors. St. Peter's nearly upset Iona on the road earlier this year, and this is a favorable spot for them. Don't be surprised if they pull off the upset here.
Last Week's Results- 1 Win (Cal Poly -2.5 ) 3 Losses (UNC Wilmington -1, Maryland -8, Butler +4) 1 Push (Idaho State +11)
Schedule Spot Fade Plays Season Record- 14 Wins 20 Losses 1 Push (-$800)
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