When I last wrote, I was willing to bet that Jackie Bradley Jr. would extend his hitting streak to 30 games. And unfortunately for JBJ, he didn't fare too well. He was held hitless by Jon Gray and unfortunately I followed suit going 0-2 with my prop selections. I still sit with a record of 9-5 and feel very good about my plays tonight.
We have a full slate of MLB action tonight to play with, and I see a few mismatches that I think can be exploited. For what it's worth, I like Houston on the First 5 Inning line, which starts at 3:40 p.m. EST. but I can't make that an official play since many of you might not read this in time. For those looking for some night action, I got you covered.
These prop bets are all based on the First 5 Inning lines, and I have the utmost confidence in what I expect to happen. As always, odds and lines are courtesy of 5Dimes.
San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves
You can call me crazy, but I am taking the Atlanta Braves here for on the F5 line and for the full game.
The Braves are starting to come around at home, and I think they can keep the momentum going against a washed-up Jake Peavy. Atlanta has won three of four at home after losing 20 of its first 22 there. They will be sending out Matt Wisler to get the job done, and this will be the Giants first look at the young right-hander. Wisler has been given one of the worst run-support averages in baseball at just 2.64. That number should rise tonight.
San Francisco will be relying on Peavy to pitch deep into the game and limit the damage. His 1-5 record shows his inability to do that this year, and a 7.26 ERA certainly doesn't bode well if you are optimistic he can actually pitch well again. He hasn't won any of his last seven games and has faced the Braves one time in three consecutive years with only one win to show for his effort.
If you want to back a terrible pitcher that's your prerogative, but starting pitching is the most important facet in baseball betting.
The Atlanta lineup has hit Peavy well in the past, with Jeff Francoeur leading the way with a .344 average in 33 career at-bats. Ender Inciarte is batting .385 in 13 AB's and Nick Markakis is at .316 with 13 ABs.
This could be a short night for Peavy if the ball is carrying well at Turner Field. While the Giants may be the better team, every dog has its day, and today should be Atlanta's.
Pick: Atlanta Braves -0.5 - First 5 Innings (+135)
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
This Red Sox lineup is dangerous from top to bottom, and anything short of a complete game shutout usually results in a loss.
Boston Moved two games ahead of the Orioles in the division with a 7-2 victory last night. Xander Bogaerts finished 2 for 4 with two RBIs and extended his hit streak to 23 games. During that streak, he has increased his average to .402 with five homers and 17 RBIs. People are finally starting to notice him.
Bogaerts' teammates are putting up some massive numbers as well. David Ortiz has homered in three straight games and is 14 for 28 with four homers and 13 RBIs over his own seven-game hit streak. Jackie Bradley Jr. is hitting .403 with six homers and 22 RBIs over his last 21 games. Like I said… this lineup is dangerous.
They will likely be able to get to Baltimore's starting pitcher Kevin Gausman early and often. Gausman is 0-2 with a 3.24 ERA and has been the victim of poor run support. He's been supplied with one run or less in four of his seven starts, which doesn't bode well for the Orioles chance to keep pace with the Red Sox.
Baltimore was held to four hits yesterday against Steven Wright. They are hitting only .225 over a 2-6 stretch that saw them barely tread water on a cross-country trip before returning to Maryland for yesterday's day game.
The Orioles will be facing a familiar foe tonight in the form of Eduardo Rodriguez, who is making his season debut. Rodriguez went 10-6 with a 3.85 ERA in 21 starts as a rookie last season and was 4-1 with a 2.08 ERA over his last seven games. He has pitched very well at Camden Yards. He's surrendered only one run and recorded 16 strikeouts in just 11 1/3 innings. The heart of the order for the Orioles has almost no success against Rodriguez, going a combined 2 for 20. That includes Manny Machado, Adam Jones and Chris Davis.
I love playing the angle of fading a team in its first home game after a long road trip, which I did yesterday and cashed. Unfortunately for O's fans, I think the swoon continues and Boston collects another win tonight.
Pick: Boston Red Sox -0.5 - First 5 Innings (+140)
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