Usually when you go 2-1 for any given night you make a little money. However, it's usually not enough to be satisfied with. That is unless you hit a massive +260 underdog on the first five-inning line and for the full game. That's exactly what I did Tuesday night when I accurately predicted Chris Sale was due for a dud performance. I am on a 9-3 run for May with my F5 prop selections, and I'm looking to keep it going tonight.
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Today is getaway day in the majors with only eight games on the card. Three of them are afternoon contests, while the remaining games - which I will be focusing on, kick off at 7 p.m. Most eyes will probably be watching Game 5 between Oklahoma City and Golden State, but my eyes will be glued to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. Yes, those are hockey teams.
Despite the slim pickings on the MLB side of things, I have keyed in on two specific games I feel give me an edge to continue my torrid pace of momentum. These prop bets are all based on the First 5 Inning lines, and I have the utmost confidence in what I expect to happen. As always, odds and lines are courtesy of 5Dimes.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals
This is a complete fade of one of the two starting pitchers. I bet you can guess which one that is.
Mike Leake was good in 2010, and Joe Ross has been doing an admirable job in the starting rotation despite losing four consecutive starts.
Leake was hit hard in his last outing against the Nationals last month. He gave up five runs, four in the fourth inning, and went seven in a 5-4 loss to the Nats' on April 29. In his last six matchups against the team from DC, he is 0-3 with a 6.47 ERA to boot.
The Nationals have outscored the Cardinals 17-6 during a three-game sweep in St. Louis that finished off May 1. I think they will be able to get their offense going in tonight's game to make it four on the trot. The Nationals have plated two runs or fewer in three of their last give games - all losses -- and scored a combined 15 in the two wins. Each of those losses came against solid pitchers: Bartolo Colon, Steve Matz, Jose Fernandez and Noah Syndergaard. It's not uncommon for these pitchers to lock down a lineup.
This is the game where they should break out and get Bryce Harper back on track. Harper is hitting .176 in his past 24 games. He is only 2 for 10 lifetime against Leake, but he was held out of yesterday's game for "rest," which leads me to believe he should bounce back in a big way today.
In the other dugout, the Cardinals come into this game without their leadoff hitter and third basemen Matt Carpenter. That is a big hole to fill in the lineup. The Cards' mentality should be fragile after they were destroyed by the NL favorite Chicago Cubs.They gave up a combined 21 runs while losing the final two games of the series. They must go up against Joe Ross, who is the victim of terrible run support. Ross has been given five runs of support during his four-start losing streak. He was able to limit the Cardinals to one run in six innings in a 6-1 victory in St. Louis on April 30.
I feel like this is a "get-back-on-track" type of game for the Nationals.
Pick: Washington Nationals -0.5 - First 5 Innings (+100)
Colorado Rockies @ Boston Red Sox
By now, I'm sure we've all heard about Jackie Bradley Jr.'s hit streak. He is sitting at 29 games heading into tonight's action, and I would be willing to bet he gets to 30 after facing Jon Gray.
The Red Sox continue to pile up hits and runs and have won four straight after dropping the opening game of their six-game homestand. Last night, Boston finished with 13 hits in a 10-3 drubbing and are now looking to sweep the Rockies right under the doormat. The Sox have scored eight or more runs 10 times in their last 14 home games and will try to keep the momentum rolling in support of Clay Buchholz.
Buchholz continues to struggle with his control. However, he did provide a quality start in his last outing against Cleveland. He should be able to be better tonight as Colorado has struggled as of late in registering three for fewer runs in four of the past five games. If he pitches anywhere close to "good" he should pick up this win.
I'm more worried for Jon Gray, who is next up to try and contend with the flaming-hot Red Sox offense. In his last outing, Gray was rocked for nine runs and eight hits in only three innings against the Cardinals. He spent much of the night pitching behind in counts, and when he had to come to the strike zone the ball was mashed.
While I predicted a Chris Sale loss in his last outing - I won't be calling for people to fade the Red Sox offense tonight. They will put up another stellar offensive performance of at least six runs and send Gray to the showers early.
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