Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Picks from Expert Pop Culture Handicapper
by Raphael Esparza - 6/30/2016
The 4th of July means the 4 Fs: Family, Fun, Food, and Fireworks! I would say that it's safe to add a fifth 'F': Famous! As in the Famous Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest on the 4th of July! Monday will mark the 100th edition of the contest in Coney Island, New York at the corner of Surf and Stillwell street.
Last year Joey Chestnut was going for his ninth straight "Mustard-Yellow" belt, but like all winning streaks, the upset was in the making and Matt Stonie out swallowed Chestnut, beating him 62-60. Yes, that is not a typo. Matt Stonie ate 62 hot dogs in 10 minutes. On Monday Chestnut will be looking for revenge, and he is currently ranked second in the world by Major League Eating (MLE), He will be looking to beat his record of 69 hot dogs set in 2013. Stonie is now the top-ranked eater in the MLE, and he is much younger than Chestnut. Therefore I believe this head-to-head matchup on Monday could be a coin toss, and we should see more dogs go down this year than last year.
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This sport is not just for the men, as the women's championship is also up for grabs on Monday. However, I don't see the champ going down. Two-time returning champion Miki Sudo, of Las Vegas, should have no problem beating Sonya Thomas again. I will never forget watching her eat 40 Nathan's Famous Hot Dogs at the New York-New York Hotel & Casino, my old work place, during a qualifying competition in 2013. Miki Sudo is a beast when it comes down to competitive eating!
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest - Odds Provided by Mybookie
Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Joey Chestnut
63.5 Over -115, Under -155
Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Matthew Stonie
63.5 Over +130, Under -170
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest - Odds Provided by Bovada
Men's Championship Head-to-Head Winner
Matt Stonie -140
Joey Chestnut +100
Since Joey Chestnut ate 69 hot dogs and broke his own record in 2013, this record hasn't been close to being beat, I don't see it happening again on Monday. Stonie ate 62 hot dogs last year, and he struggled in the last two minutes, so seeing the number 63.5 this year could be a stretch. However, if Chestnut wants his "Mustard-Yellow" belt back he will have to have a big appetite Monday afternoon. I tend to lean towards the "under" 63.5 hot dogs eaten. For the Head-to-Head matchup between Stonie and Chestnut, I was originally leaning towards Chestnut to regain his belt, but at the same time I was hoping to get a bigger plus-price. Therefore I'm going to wait and see if the number moves.
Men's Championship Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Winner
63.5 Over -160, Under +120
I guess the betting public also likes the "over" 63.5 as well because it has moved from -130 to -160, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the number move higher. Grab the -160 now because July 4th morning I see 63.5 the over moving to at least -200. At that number I see no value.
Women's Championship Head-to-Head Winner
Miki Sudo -250
Sonya Thomas +170
No doubt about it, Sudo will beat Thomas, and I'm completely shocked that Sudo is not -300 or higher. Maybe I should use this prop as my Nathan's Hot Dog Eating contest Game of the Year.
Women's Championship Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Winner
39.5 Over -130, Under -110
Last year Sudo ate 38 hot dogs and won, and in 2014 she ate 34 hot dogs and won, so seeing her or some other female competitor eat 40 is highly unlikely. Laying only -110 on the UNDER seems like a steal, and if Sudo beats last year's number she probably will beat it by only one dog.
Raphael Esparza is one of the top handicappers in all sports. Esparza is looking for a monster 4th of July holiday weekend in all sports. Esparza will have action in MLB Baseball, WNBA Basketball, Euro Cup soccer, MLS Soccer, and CFL Football. New clients can take advantage of Doc's no-hassle $60 free picks offer and get Esparza's weekend picks. Click here for $60 worth of free picks.
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