Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys Expert Picks with Odds and Predictions
Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys, Saturday Nov. 4, 4 p.m. ET
Bedlam is one of college football's great rivalries, but it is a lopsided one. Oklahoma has a huge 86-18-7 advantage overall in the series, and they have won 10 of the last 12. One of Oklahoma State's two wins, though, came in 2011 when they were a top 10 team. Well, now they are both ranked in the top 10, and with the Big 12 totally wide open with these teams and two others at 4-1, the stakes for this one are as high as they have been in a while for this game. It's odd seeing Bedlam come this early as it is typically the last game of the season for the teams. Hopefully the timing isn't an issue and the game is as good as it has the potential to be.
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Oklahoma at Oklahoma State Betting Storylines
One would be hard pressed to find a better QB showdown this season than we have here. Baker Mayfield is very well positioned to head to New York for the Heisman ceremony, and Mason Rudolph could easily join him. They are well matched. Rudolph is very accurate, but he pales in comparison to Mayfield's crazy 72.5 percent completion rate. Rudolph has a small edge in yards, but Mayfield has one more TD and two fewer interceptions. Both guys are at the top of their games and are in complete command of their offenses. Oklahoma has the top offense in the country by yards, and Oklahoma State is No. 2. It's no wonder that the total is so high. Neither defense is very well positioned to offer any resistance, either. Oklahoma ranks 87th nationally against the pass, and Oklahoma State is 79th. The chances of seeing fireworks are so high it seems inevitable. The lone potential concern is that Rudolph is on injury reports this week with shoulder issues, but as much as I have searched I have not found a single source that takes that threat seriously.
This is unquestionably a big game for both teams. And it is tough to know how Oklahoma will handle this under their new coach. On one hand they absolutely crushed Ohio State - in Columbus no less - in Week 2 of the season. But since then the only game with a single-digit spread was Texas, and Oklahoma was significantly the better team as nine-point favorites. They lost to the very surprising Cyclones at least in part because they weren't mentally prepared, and they have not been hungry enough to cover more than one of five spreads in conference play even though their offense has been rolling and when they have been by far the better team. Now they need to find a higher gear in a hurry, and they could easily have forgotten how to find that gear or what it takes to win against real competition. It feels to me like Oklahoma would have an edge if they show up. But that if looms large and makes this a tough game to call. Oklahoma State hasn't played a crushing schedule, either, but they have been favored by 10 or less in four of their last five, and West Virginia last time out was a tough opponent, so they are a little more seasoned of late.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State Odds and Betting Trends
The game opened with Oklahoma State favored by 3, with a couple of books even trying out 3.5 briefly. It is now widely available at 2.5 . Nearly 70 percent of bets have come in on Oklahoma, so the line movement isn't surprising - and we could even see the number fall a little more if the action stays consistent. Not surprisingly, the total opened up sky high at 76.
The Sooners are 8-1 ATS in their last nine against teams with winning records and 6-2 ATS in their last eight in November, but they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. The Cowboys have gone "over" the total in seven of their last eight November games and in 14 of their last 20 conference games. Oklahoma is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 editions of this rivalry.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State Predictions and Picks
I have changed my mind on this one about seven times - which is a pretty good sign that, to me, there isn't a whole lot of value to be had here. I lean towards Oklahoma, but I wouldn't be surprised by either result. For the sake of a rooting interest, I'd look towards the over. The teams are averaging more than 87 combined points this year, neither is facing a defense with a clue when facing an offense of his caliber, and the teams have gone over this total in five of their last nine meetings. The over is playable despite how high it is.
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Read more articles by Trevor Whenham
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