NBA Expert Betting Advice: Studs and Duds Against the Point Spread
We are over the summit and heading down the backside of the hill towards the end of the regular season in the NBA. Teams have played enough by now that we have a large enough sample size to get a sense of how teams are performing against the spread. Things can and will change down the stretch, but we have seen enough to get a sense of which teams are kind to bettors' money and which ones seem to hate profits. Here is a look at the four biggest betting studs of the NBA season to date as well as the four biggest duds.
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Boston Celtics (27-16-2 ATS): There is no mystery here at all. The Celtics made a massive gamble in the offseason to remake their team, and it has worked wonders. They have the best record outside of Golden State, they join San Antonio as one of only two teams that have allowed fewer than 100 points per game, and they are as solid on the road as at home. What's most striking is their consistency and ability to shake off setbacks - they have lost two in a row just once since they dropped their first two games, and they have yet to lose more than that.
Brooklyn Nets (27-17 ATS): Brooklyn was supposed to be bad, and they are. But they aren't quite as bad as people think, and that is a powerful recipe for profits. They have been particularly strong on the road where they have gone 15-8 ATS. The team is a stellar 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, while winning just four of those 10 games, so they are poised to keep producing some solid profits under-the-radar for a while yet.
Chicago Bulls (26-17-1 ATS): Like the Nets, the key for the Bulls is that they are a bad team that isn't quite as bad as people expected. They certainly aren't good enough to get noticed, but they are doing enough to produce some decent profits with the breakout rookie season from Lauri Markkanen helping to lead the way. They are much more consistent than the Nets - 13-8 ATS at home and 13-9 ATS on the road.
Toronto Raptors (24-18 ATS): The Raptors are in second in the Eastern Conference and secure enough in that spot that they could easily stay there, yet no one seems to be taking them seriously. They may not be built for postseason success, but they are doing enough to produce nice profits here. They are profitable both home and away, but their 13-11 ATS mark on the road is far less impressive.
Cleveland Cavaliers (12-30-1 ATS): There is no mystery here at all. People expect a whole lot from LeBron James and company, and they have not been delivering. The problems have been particularly acute recently where they have failed to cover their last six spreads and 11 of their last 12. Things are really ugly right now, and they don't show any short-term signs of improvement.
Oklahoma City Thunder (17-27 ATS): The Thunder aggressively splashed out for a Big Three of their own. And the results so far have been spotty - and certainly well below the optimistic expectations many would have had. People seem to believe in this group to at least some extent, though, so they keep backing them - and they keep falling short of a cover. They are playing better lately, and are likely to be a well-positioned playoff team, but they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games, so things have not fully stabilized on a betting front.
Orlando Magic (17-26-1 ATS): Before beating Minnesota last time out, the Magic had won just once in 17 games. They are 5-12 ATS over that stretch of games, so they aren't significantly outperforming their record for bettors. In other words, this is a bad team playing badly. We don't really need to think about it much more than that.
Memphis Grizzlies (16-24-2 ATS): What I said about the Magic applies very well here as well - this is a bad team that is playing right up to their capabilities. They are a mess. Unlike the Magic, though, the team has actually performed well for bettors lately - they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight outings. When Tyreke Evans leads your team in points and assists then you don't have much of a team, and you are really going to struggle to maintain this current betting strength for any amount of time.
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Read more articles by Trevor Whenham
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