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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Memphis Grizzlies Series Predictions with Betting Odds

by Spencer Toth - 4/14/2023

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Memphis Grizzlies series predictions Ja Morant

The Los Angeles Lakers stormed into the postseason, winning 9 of their final 11 games, before booking their spot in a thriller against the Timberwolves in the Play-In Tournament. LeBron James continues to turn back the clock and deliver at the highest level, and he is the heartbeat of this Lakers franchise. Across the court stands the Memphis Grizzlies, who will be looking to turn their regular season success into tangible results. They’ve won only 5 playoff series in franchise history and will be looking to navigate through a crowded Western Conference playoff field towards an NBA title.

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Memphis Grizzlies:

The Memphis Grizzlies have had an emotional regular season, filled with ups and downs. Despite holding onto the second seed since January 1, there have been speed bumps along the way. Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Steven Adams, and Jaret Jackson Jr. all played 63 games or fewer, forcing the Grizzlies to frequently rotate their starting lineup. A total of 9 players have started 20+ games for Memphis, and the unity on their relatively healthy team is obvious.

Ja Morant is the undeniable leader of this team and will be looking to put his off-court issues behind him. He was suspended for 8 games after flashing a gun on his Instagram. And while he’s been relatively healthy otherwise, he’s a critical piece for the Grizzlies. The budding superstar won Most Improved Player last season, after scoring 27.4 PPG to go along with 6.2 Assists and 5.7 Rebounds. While his shooting numbers have gone down slightly, he’s being double teamed more frequently and has been able to find the open man. He’s posting a career high 8.1 Assists and has done a great job at utilizing the shooters around him.

Some of those shooters include Desmond Bane and Luke Kennard, both of whom are shooting better than 40% from deep. Bane is the clear cut second option on Memphis, and he can heat up in an instant from deep. The value he and Kennard bring to the lineup forces teams to stay honest on defense and allows for Morant and Jackson to cook in the open court. If Kennard, who’s leading the league with a 49.4% clip from deep, is left open, he will make defenses pay.

The Grizzlies led the league with a 35-6 home record and will have home court for at least the first two rounds. Their 16-25 away record is concerning. However, if they take care of business in front of the Grizzlies faithful, they are in store for a deep playoff run.

The only knock against the Grizzlies is their shooting. They’ve ridden their 2nd-ranked defense thus far, but a 30th ranked Free Throw percentage can cost them in the clutch. Once you pair that with a 24th ranked true shooting percentage, the Grizzlies have the tendency to occasionally get cold on the offensive end.

Los Angeles Lakers:

Any time Lebron James steps on the court, the world tunes in. The Lakers turned their dumpster fire of a season around and have managed to sneak into the playoffs in the 7th seed. A 9-2 turn to finish the regular season followed by the clutch victory over Minnesota has them coming in with the 7th best odds to take home the championship at +1500. After starting the season 3-10, the Lakers were unable to pull themselves out of the basement for months. Just 6 weeks ago, the Lakers were 26-32 sitting in 13th place, with little hope in sight.

The mood in L.A. has improved dramatically, and there is legitimate hope that they can repeat what they did in the bubble and take home a championship. James has been his usually dominant self, but at 38-years-old he needs a respectable supporting cast around him. He is still the leading scorer at 28.9 PPG, which would be good for 7th in the league, but the depth of the Lakers remains a concern.

The duo of James and Anthony Davis has certainly come with issues, primarily the health of the pair. Davis has played in only 59% of the Lakers’ regular season games in the 4 years he’s been there, which makes building a team around him very challenging. When healthy, Davis is a menace down low and has been exceptional at hauling in rebounds for the Lakers. Scoring 25.9 PPG while grabbing 12.5 Rebounds is no easy task, and the Lakers are a significantly worse team when he’s not on the court.

While the storyline surrounding James is great, and I’ll never count the King out, the Lakers have a serious hill to climb. The addition of D’Angelo Russell has helped balance the scoring, but the Lakers bench is incredibly thin, with players like Lonnie Walker, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley all being counted on for 20+ minutes per game. In a grueling playoffs, where the Lakers will be on the road more often than not, it is far from ideal.

Lakers vs Grizzlies Prediction:

While I would like to take the Lakers, and will be cheering James on, the Grizzlies are the best bet for this series. Los Angeles has been red hot heading into the playoffs, and their 10-2, and 18-7 runs have been nice, but they haven’t come against quality opposition. Just 3 of their last 15 games have come against opposition currently in the postseason, and they have failed to demonstrate they can consistently compete with quality opponents. On the other hand, the Grizzlies have lost only 6 home games all season and will be able to make their home-court advantage count.

While I will be siding with Memphis, I’m not expecting a blowout. The Lakers have shown fantastic development as a team throughout the season. And with the wind at their backs, I expect them to go out and win Game 1 in Memphis. After that, the Grizzlies will right the ship, and eventually come out on top. The Lakers aren’t in the top 10 in offensive or defensive rating, and their 20th ranked offense will struggle to consistently score on the Grizzlies’ elite defensive unit. Jackson Jr. will be able to contain Davis in the paint, and the DPOY candidate makes a living shutting down the elite big men of the league.

When it is all said and done, this series will be very entertaining, but the Lakers will fall short. Give me the Grizzlies in a hard fought, 7-game series.

Pick: Memphis Grizzlies in 7 Games.

Best Bets:

This is the most evenly matched series on the board, with the Grizzlies coming in as -135 favorites, with the Lakers coming back at +120. I think this line is very fair. While the Grizzlies deserve to be favored, the hot streak the Lakers are on keeps the line close. The first bet will be on the Grizzlies to prevail at -135. As mentioned, their advantage on the defensive end will force the Lakers into long scoreless runs, especially once the bench players get minutes. A 2nd ranked defense with just 6 home losses all season? Sign me up.

The second bet for the night is on the total games, Over 5.5 at -200. Regardless of which team comes out on top, I expect a minimum of 6 games to be played. The +200 odds on Over 6.5 games is tempting, but I’m far more confident eating the juice, and taking the safer bet.

We ate juice on the last bet, but there is lots of money to be made here. The Grizzlies are +375 to win in 7 games. And considering they’ll be hosting a potentially pivotal game 7, I’m loving these odds.

Pick: Memphis Grizzlies -135

Pick: Lakers vs Grizzlies Over 5.5 Games -200

Pick: Memphis Grizzlies in 7 Games +375

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