2023 Preakness Stakes Early Look

by Joey House - 5/10/2023

Was it just me, or did this Derby feel cursed? It's normal for one or two horses to drop out before the race, so when Wild On Ice was tragically lost the week before the race, it was disappointing but not unexpected. Unfortunately, the scratches continued, with ultimately another five horses being pulled from the field, including the heavy favorite Forte and public favorite Practical Move. All of the alternate thoroughbreds had been selected, and the field was shrunk from 20 to 18.

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"The Granddaddy of Derby Rules" is broken

For more than a century, Apollo stood as the sole Kentucky Derby winner in 1882 who did not compete as a 2-year-old. From 1937 to 2017, a mere three horses, all unraced at 2, were able to clinch a notable second-place finish in the renowned race. Yet, in 2018, the remarkable Triple Crown champion, Justify, broke through that long-standing barrier, ushering in victory for his fellow lightly raced contenders. Add Mage (15-1) to that incredibly short list of lightly-experienced Kentucky Derby winners.

Mage, trained by Gustavo Delgado, Jr. and ridden by Javier Castellano, ran an impressive race, coming from the back of the pack to duel with Two Phil's at the end. Angel of Empire, who ended up being the post-time favorite at 4-1, closed out the trifecta. Mage's winning time for the 1 1/4 mile race was 2:01.57.

A $2 win bet returned $32.42 on the 15-1 longshot. The $2 exacta of 5-8 paid $330.44. The $1 trifecta (5-8-14) paid $982.36. The $1 superfecta, which included Disarm in 4th, paid $15,643.63.

Mage's win had to have stung Forte's camp, as the scratched 3-year-old had beaten the lightly-raced colt in two different "Road to the Derby" prep races, the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby (G1). If not for a bruised right front foot, we most likely would be having a very different discussion right now.

A look at the Preakness with The "New Shooters"

When Two Phil's was withdrawn from the Preakness Field, that left Mage and Confidence Game as the only Derby runners in the field.

As expected, the early odds list Mage as the favorite at 3-1. First Mission is next at 5-1. The rest are as follows:

Confidence Game: 12-1 Blazing Sevens: 12-1

Henry Q: 12-1 Red Route One: 16-1

National Treasure: 18-1 Instant Coffee: 20-1

Chase the Chaos: 33-1 II Miracolo: 50-1

Unfortunately, it appears that Forte will not be able to participate in the Preakness. This decision was announced on Monday afternoon by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission, stating that Forte has been placed under a 14-day veterinarian's ban, which will prevent him from competing in the Preakness.

Why do so many Derby runners drop out of the Preakness?

There can be several reasons why a horse may run in the Derby but choose not to compete in the Preakness. One factor is the quick turnaround time between the two races, as the Preakness takes place just two weeks after the Derby. Trainers and owners may prioritize giving their horses more time to rest and recover rather than pushing them to compete again. Additionally, different racing strategies come into play, with trainers opting to target races that align better with their horse's running style or preferred track conditions. Injury or health concerns may arise following the Derby, leading to a withdrawal from further competition. Lastly, horses that perform well in the Derby may receive invitations to other prestigious races, redirecting their campaign and making the Preakness a lower priority.

From 1875 to 1938 (63 years), 42 Derby winners skipped the Preakness. Eleven of those years the turnaround was less than a week. Which makes Sir Barton's 1919 Triple Crown even more impressive as he won the Kentucky Derby and then the Preakness just four days later. Talk about a stud!!

The Triple Crown order of the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont became officially set in 1932. Since that order was established, only 12 Derby winners did not race in the Preakness, although it's technically happened in three of the last four years.

Derby-Preakness Combo

Every true horse racing fan knows that there have been 13 Triple Crown winners. In the span of 18 years from 1930 to 1948, eight of those 13 winners were crowned. Then again in the 1970's, another three kings were anointed. But from 1978 until American Pharoah's Triple Crown run in 2015, it was thought that the horse racing world may never have another Triple Crown winner.

During the most recent extended Triple Crown drought, 13 horses won the first two legs of the Triple Crown before faltering in the Belmont. In total there have been 23 horses to win both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness but not complete the trifecta of the Belmont. The last horse to win both the first two legs of the Triple Crown but fail to complete the journey was California Chrome in 2014.

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Start:	December 12, 2024 @ 8:30 PM
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2023 Preakness Stakes Early Look

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