2025 Preakness Stakes Pace Scenario: Expert Analysis and Predictions

by Joey House - 5/14/2025

The 150th running of the Preakness Stakes, set for May 17, 2025, at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, will be a strategic clash where pace and track conditions could determine the winner. This Grade 1, $2 million race over 1 3/16 miles on dirt rewards early speed or tactical positioning, and with expected rain likely creating a muddy track, horses with wet-track ability will hold an edge. The nine-horse field, including three Kentucky Derby returnees, is primed for an honest pace driven by front-runners, opening opportunities for stalkers and closers. This analysis explores how pace and rain will shape the Run for the Black-Eyed Susans.

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Historical Pace and Wet-Track Trends

The Preakness favors horses near the lead, with 14 of the last 15 winners positioned close to the early pace. Five went wire-to-wire, including Seize the Grey (2024), National Treasure (2023), Justify (2018), and American Pharoah (2015), on both fast and sloppy tracks. Nine stalkers prevailed, while only Exaggerator (2016) rallied from over 11 lengths back on a muddy track. About 80% of the last 20 winners were in the front half after a half-mile, with just 15% overcoming deficits beyond five lengths. Rain has shaped recent races, with muddy tracks in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2024 favoring horses with wet-track experience that maintain speed or close effectively in slop.

Weather Forecast

There's a 60% chance of showers and possible thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening, with temperatures in the 80s and rainfall up to a tenth of an inch. Friday's Black-Eyed Susan Day has a 30-50% chance of showers, suggesting the track could be wet before the main event. Under similar conditions, Pimlico's main track was downgraded to muddy in 2024, and management may seal it to reduce water penetration. A muddy track often favors early-speed horses, avoiding kickbacks or closers with strong wet-track pedigrees.

Pace Setters go Muddin'

Two speed horses, #1 Goal Oriented (6-1) and #8 Clever Again (5-1), will likely dictate the tempo. Goal Oriented, trained by Bob Baffert, should break sharply from the rail and set fractions around 23-24 seconds per quarter. Baffert has had tremendous success with front-runners of off-tracks, such as the 2017 Triple Crown winner Justify. Clever Again, sired by American Pharoah, wired his last two races and has a pedigree that excels in mud, suggesting he'll push Goal Oriented. The pace should be honest, with a half-mile split of 46-47 seconds, softened late by a tiring muddy surface.

Supporting speed includes #3 American Promise (15-1), #6 River Thames (9-2), and #9 Gosger (20-1). American Promise, sired by Justify, won on a muddy track at Oaklawn and could press early despite fading in the Derby. His style may emulate Seize the Grey's 2024 muddy wire job. River Thames and Gosger, stalkers by nature, will track 2-3 lengths back, with River Thames' high Tomlinson wet-track figure indicating mud suitability, though he's untested on it.

Stalkers and Closers Who Thrive in Slop

The honest pace and muddy track favor #2 Journalism (8-5 favorite) and #7 Sandman (4-1). Journalism, the Derby runner-up, closed from 13 1/2 lengths back to finish 1 1/2 lengths behind Sovereignty on a sloppy track. Sired by Curlin, the 2007 Preakness winner, he's proven in the slop and should sit mid-pack, 5-7 lengths off, before surging late. His Santa Anita Derby win and recovery from the Derby's two-week turnaround make him the top contender.

Sandman won the Arkansas Derby as a stalker and ran seventh in the Derby. With John Velazquez, a 2023 Preakness winner, he'll sit 3-5 lengths back, leveraging his far-turn rally. Untested on mud, his tactical speed suits a softening pace.

Longshots Benefiting from Pace and Rain

With pace and rain in play, #4 Heart of Honor (12-1) and #5 Pay Billy (20-1) might emerge as longshot contenders. Heart of Honor, a Dubai-based closer, was second in the UAE Derby and excels chasing solid paces, with a late kick suited for a muddy track. Pay Billy, a local who won the Federico Tesio Stakes, stalks close and might place if leaders falter, though his speed figures lag. Neither has wet-track experience, but their styles align with a pace collapse.

Pace Prognostication and Predictions

The likely muddy track, driven by a high likelihood of rain, favors American Promise and Journalism, both with sloppy-track wins. Goal Oriented and Clever Again will set a brisk pace (46-47 seconds for a half-mile), pressuring each other and fading late on a tiring surface. This benefits Journalism's closing power and American Promise's front-end grit. River Thames and Sandman, with tactical speed, are well-placed, with River Thames' wet-track pedigree boosting his case.

Prediction: Clever Again, sired by 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, who conquered the 2015 Preakness on a sloppy track with blazing front-running speed, will seize the 2025 Preakness Stakes with his gate-to-wire dominance. His Hot Springs Stakes win, and muddy track pedigree will enable him to set a steady tempo and resist late challengers on a sloppy surface. American Promise's early pace, sharpened in an Oaklawn muddy victory, and Journalism's late rally, proven in a sloppy Derby, clinch the trifecta. Heart of Honor's UAE Derby-honed closing kick makes him a longshot for exotics, ready to surge if front-runners fade in the mud.

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Start:	May 21, 2025 @ 10:10 PM
Expert:	August Young
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2025 Preakness Stakes Pace Scenario: Expert Analysis and Predictions

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