2024 Preakness Stakes Long Shots with a Chance to Cash Big Ticket

by Mike Allen - 5/16/2024

The Preakness is set to roll with a post time this Saturday evening at 6:50 Eastern, the same hour we were able to witness the Kentucky Derby just weeks ago. Congratulations if you were on Mystik Dan at an unbelievable 18-1!

That is literally a palpitating payout and the best way to start a Saturday night. Along with Honor Marie, who finished in 8th place, and Endlessly running right behind him in 9th, we were on Mystik Dan to win as our three longshot predictions to win the Kentucky Derby.

We are, of course, happy with these results, but The Preakness is a whole nother race entirely, with only Mystik Dan, Catching Freedom, and Just Steel as those who ran the Derby just two weeks ago.

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The Preakness, held at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland, is a 1 3/16-mile race, or if you are a horse racing connoisseur, it's exactly 9 ½ furlongs. This translates to 1.88 kilometers for the rest of the world or here in America, 1.168 miles.

In comparison to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, it is quite similar but slightly shorter than the full 2 kilometers we had two Saturdays ago. Any way you cut it, you need to get your bets in on time and don't blink because it's over about as fast as it begins.

The 149th running of The Preakness recently lost its early betting favorite, Muth, to sickness due to a high fever. Is there anyone out there that thinks this was simply a coincidence? Fortunately for you guys, I won't be donning my tinfoil hat this week. However, whenever millions of dollars are involved, people will go to extreme lengths to win.

Perhaps Muth's trainer Bob Baffert got a taste of his own medicine, or at the least what went around came around, and a "bug" bit his horse in the butt.

The aforementioned Mystik Dan moves into the betting favorite slot with current projected odds of 5-2. Catching Freedom, Imagination, and Tuscan Gold are also single-digit midgets at 6-1, 6-1, and 8-1, respectively.

At the Kentucky Derby, we had a 20-horse field. This week's Preakness is much smaller, with only 8 equines in contention. We listed the top four seeds. That leaves a couple of 15-1 shots, both trained by 88-year-old D. Wayne Lukas, Seize The Grey, and Just Steel, who also ran this year's Kentucky Derby.

As for our two projected 20-1 horses, we have Mugatu and Uncle Heavy, who will be lining up in post positions 1 and 2.

Do any of these longshots have a chance to win The Preakness? I would say so, yes. In a field of only 8 horses, they are all live. Before we predict another longshot winner this week, let’s take a look back at the 10 horses with the longest odds to ever win The Preakness.

Historical Longshot Winners of The Preakness

(1984) Tabasco Cat: 8-1

(2011) Schackleford: 12-1

(2017) Cloud Computing: 13-1

(1982) Aloma’s Ruler: 13-1

(1983) Deputed Testimony: 14-1

(2013) Oxbow: 15-1

(1971) Bee Bee Bee: 17-1

(1926) Display: 19-1

(1925) Coventry: 21-1

2024 Preakness Longshot Picks

Uncle Heavy 20-1

Uncle Heavy is a 3-year-old colt with 5 races under his saddle. Of those, he has been the first to cross the finish line 3 times. This will undoubtedly, though, be the biggest race and opportunity of his life.

This steed has run some of his best races on wet tracks. And looking at the weather for Pimlico for Saturday, it appears Team Uncle Heavy may get just what they need to pull off a massive upset.

According to almighty Google, there is currently a 92% chance of precipitation on race day. We were on Mystik Dan for the same reason at the Derby, and that paid off at 18-1! Why not this sexy steed?

His post position of 2nd isn't the best historically, and his speed rating is low. That's why we have these odds, though, but I love the value, nonetheless.

Let’s throw one more longshot in there that we think has a chance to win The Preakness.

Just Steel 15-1

Only Mistik Dan has better numbers on very wet tracks than Just Steel. The 3-year-old horse has a ton of experience, as well, with 12 starts over the past two years.

Just a couple of days ago, there was a 50/50 chance of rain. However, now that we are north of 90, we have to handicap for a potentially muddy and splashy track.

We mentioned this horse's trainer, the legendary D. Wayne Lukas already. With 6 wins under his cap at The Preakness, I wouldn't count out another muddy runner like Just Steel.

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2024 Preakness Stakes Long Shots with a Chance to Cash Big Ticket

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