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Best Trifecta Bets for the Preakness Stakes 2025

by Joey House - 5/15/2025

Best Trifecta bets for the Preakness Stakes

The Preakness Stakes, the second leg of horse racing's Triple Crown, offers bettors a thrilling chance to score big with exotic wagers like the trifecta. A trifecta requires picking the first, second, and third-place finishers in exact order, blending challenge with lucrative payouts. The 2025 Preakness, set for May 17 at Pimlico Race Course, features a tight nine-horse field, making it a prime opportunity for strategic betting. This article explains trifecta bets, highlighting key horses, strategies, and factors like pedigree, recent form, and race dynamics.

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Understanding the Trifecta Bet

A trifecta bet tasks you with selecting the top three finishers in precise order. At Pimlico, the minimum wager is $1, but costs rise with "boxing" (covering all combinations of selected horses) or "wheeling" (keying a horse in one spot with others in remaining positions). For example, a $1 trifecta box with three horses costs $6, while a wheel can optimize coverage. The smaller 2025 field may temper payouts compared to the Kentucky Derby's 20-horse sprawl, but smart picks can still deliver. The 2024 Preakness trifecta paid $183.70 for a $1 bet, showing the potential for solid returns with sharp handicapping.

Key Horses to Anchor Your Trifecta

The 2025 field blends Kentucky Derby veterans, fresh contenders, and a longshot with upset potential. Below are the top horses to anchor or include, ordered by post position, with their odds and key attributes for Pimlico's 1 3/16-mile dirt track.

PP 1 - Goal Oriented 5-1

Goal Oriented, trained by Todd Pletcher, is an intriguing wildcard. Undefeated in two starts, this colt steps up in class but boasts a perfect record and a rail draw. His lack of graded-stakes experience makes him a risky win candidate, but his early speed and Bob Baffert-like training regimen (Pletcher's first Preakness win is overdue) suggest he could hang on for a piece. Goal Oriented is a budget-friendly addition to the third slot in trifecta wheels, especially if the pace is moderate. His untested ceiling adds upside for bettors willing to take a chance.

PP 2 - Journalism 8-5

Journalism, the morning-line favorite, is a must-use in trifecta bets due to his consistency and proven class. Trained by Michael McCarthy, this colt finished a game second in the Kentucky Derby, dueling with winner Sovereignty down the stretch. His resume includes graded-stakes wins in the Los Alamitos Futurity, San Felipe Stakes, and Santa Anita Derby, showcasing his ability to handle top competition. Journalism's stalking style suits Pimlico, where 14 of the last 15 Preakness winners were close to the early pace. With jockey Umberto Rispoli aboard and a favorable inside post, Journalism is a strong candidate to win or hit the board. However, his short odds mean he's best keyed in first or second to boost payouts with longer-priced horses underneath.

PP 3 - American Promise 15-1

For those chasing bigger payouts, American Promise is a longshot worth considering. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, who won the 2024 Preakness with Seize the Grey, this colt faded to 16th in the Kentucky Derby but showed promise in prep races. His stalking style and Lukas's knack for peaking horses in Baltimore make him a sneaky contender to sneak into third. At 15-1, American Promise is ideal for boosting trifecta payouts when paired with chalkier horses like Journalism or Clever Again.

PP 7 - Sandman 4-1

Sandman, trained by Mark Casse, brings Derby experience and a versatile running style. He finished sixth at Churchill Downs but won the Arkansas Derby earlier this year, proving he can compete with elite fields. Jockey John Velazquez, a Hall of Famer, adds confidence. However, Sandman's deep-closing tendencies are less ideal for Pimlico, where only one deep closer (Exaggerator in 2016) has won in the last 15 years. Still, his class and ability to rally make him a reliable trifecta filler for second or third. Use Sandman to round out tickets, especially in boxed combinations, to hedge against a pace meltdown.

PP 8 - Clever Again 5-1

Clever Again is the top value play for trifecta bettors seeking a potential upset. Trained by Steve Asmussen, a two-time Preakness winner, this son of 2015 Triple Crown champion American Pharoah is lightly raced but trending upward. After a narrow loss in his debut, he reeled off wire-to-wire wins at Oaklawn Park, including a dominant four-length score in the Hot Springs Stakes with a 101 speed figure. His outside post is a slight concern, but jockey Jose Ortiz, who won the 2022 Preakness, can navigate a clean trip. Clever Again's front-running style aligns with recent Preakness trends—five of the last 15 winners led gate-to-wire, including Seize the Grey in 2024. Key him first for bold tickets or second/third for safer plays.

Trifecta Betting Strategies

To maximize value, consider these trifecta constructions tailored to the 2025 field, with horses listed in numerical order by post position:

1. Straight Trifecta (High-Risk, High-Reward)

  1. Pick: 2-Journalism to win, 8-Clever Again second, 7-Sandman third
  2. Cost: $1
  3. Rationale: This ticket banks on the reliability of 2-Journalism, the upset potential of 8-Clever Again, and the closing kick of 7-Sandman. It's a low-cost, high-payout play but requires precision.

2. Trifecta Key Box (Balanced Approach)

  1. Structure:
    1. 8-Clever Again in 1st:
      1. 1st: 8-Clever Again
      2. 2nd: 1-Goal Oriented, 2-Journalism, 3-American Promise, 7-Sandman
      3. 3rd: 1-Goal Oriented, 2-Journalism, 3-American Promise, 7-Sandman
    2. 8-Clever Again in 2nd:
      1. 1st: 1-Goal Oriented, 2-Journalism, 3-American Promise, 7-Sandman
      2. 2nd: 8-Clever Again
      3. 3rd: 1-Goal Oriented, 2-Journalism, 3-American Promise, 7-Sandman
    3. 8-Clever Again in 3rd:
      1. 1st: 1-Goal Oriented, 2-Journalism, 3-American Promise, 7-Sandman
      2. 2nd: 1-Goal Oriented, 2-Journalism, 3-American Promise, 7-Sandman
      3. 3rd: 8-Clever Again
  2. Cost: $36 for $1 base (36 combinations)
    1. Breakdown:
      1. 8 in 1st: 1 × 4 × 3 = 12 combinations (one horse for 1st, four choices for 2nd, three remaining for 3rd)
      2. 8 in 2nd: 4 × 1 × 3 = 12 combinations (four choices for 1st, one horse for 2nd, three remaining for 3rd)
      3. 8 in 3rd: 4 × 3 × 1 = 12 combinations (four choices for 1st, three remaining for 2nd, one horse for 3rd)
      4. Total: 12 + 12 + 12 = 36 combinations
  3. Rationale: The key box focuses on the 8-Clever Again to finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, capitalizing on his 5-1 odds and front-running speed. The other horses (1-Goal Oriented, 2-Journalism, 3-American Promise, 7-Sandman) fill the remaining positions in numerical order, covering top contenders and the 15-1 longshot 3-American Promise for bigger payouts. The structure ensures 8-Clever Again hits the board, with 2-Journalism's reliability, 7-Sandman's class, 1-Goal Oriented's potential, or 3-American Promise's value-enhancing returns. The $36 cost reflects comprehensive coverage.

3. Trifecta Box (Safe but Costly)

  1. Horses: 1-Goal Oriented, 2-Journalism, 3-American Promise, 7-Sandman, 8-Clever Again
  2. Cost: $60 for $1 base (60 combinations)
  3. Rationale: Boxing all five horses (1-Goal Oriented, 2-Journalism, 3-American Promise, 7-Sandman, 8-Clever Again) ensures a payout if any three finish in the top three in any order. It's ideal for bettors who are confident in these contenders but unsure of the exact sequence. Including 3-American Promise at 15-1 adds longshot value, while 2-Journalism and 8-Clever Again anchor with reliability and upside.

Race Dynamics and Trends

Pimlico's track favors speed and stalkers, with 14 of the last 15 Preakness winners within striking distance early. The 2025 field lacks a dominant front-runner, potentially setting up a contested pace between 8-Clever Again and others like Imagination (if entered). 2-Journalism and 7-Sandman, both stalkers, are poised to capitalize on a pace duel, while 3-American Promise and 1-Goal Oriented could benefit from a steady tempo. Rain is forecast, and a sloppy track often aids front-runners like 8-Clever Again, as seen with Exaggerator in 2016. Monitor track conditions on race day to tweak your tickets.

Recent trends favor non-Derby runners, with five of the last seven Preakness winners skipping the "Run for the Roses," including Seize the Grey (2024) and National Treasure (2023). This boosts 1-Goal Oriented and 8-Clever Again, fresh off targeted preps. 2-Journalism's Derby turnaround of two weeks is a minor concern, as only War of Will (2019) won the Preakness post-Derby since 2019.

Budget Considerations

Trifecta bets can add up, so set a budget and prioritize efficiency. The $36 part wheel offers broader coverage than a straight trifecta but is cheaper than the $60 box. A $1-$2 straight trifecta or a $6 three-horse box is safer for smaller budgets. Compare odds on platforms like FanDuel Racing or TwinSpires, as payouts vary with the pari-mutuel pool.

Recommended Strategy

The recommended trifecta strategy is the key box, which keys 8-Clever Again with 1-Goal Oriented, 2-Journalism, 3-American Promise, and 7-Sandman. This approach strikes an optimal balance of value, coverage, and affordability at $36. Keying 8-Clever Again leverages his 5-1 odds and front-running style, which aligns with Pimlico's speed bias and recent gate-to-wire winners like Seize the Grey in 2024. His fresh condition as a non-Derby runner and Steve Asmussen's Preakness pedigree make him a high-probability board-hitter. Including all five horses ensures exposure to 2-Journalism's consistency, 7-Sandman's class, 1-Goal Oriented's upside, and 3-American Promise's 15-1 longshot potential, boosting payouts if he sneaks into third. Unlike the $1 straight trifecta, which risks missing with one wrong pick, or the $60 box, which is costlier for broader coverage, the part wheel efficiently captures multiple scenarios, including upsets, while keeping costs manageable. It's the sharpest play for bettors seeking both safety and a shot at a juicy return.

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