Tyson Fury vs Francis Ngannou Betting Odds and Predictions
Finally, this "exhibition" boxing match is happening! I have been patiently waiting for this one since we originally heard the rumors years ago.
Heck, it's been nearly two years since Francis Ngannou has fought. It was back in January 2022. The rumors of a potential boxing match between him and the current undisputed heavyweight champion of the world, Tyson Fury, have been circulating for a while.
Many fans were disappointed to see Ngannou leave the UFC. It didn't break my heart because now we get to see him in a much more interesting matchup as he crosses over from the sport of MMA to the boxing ring.
Just like Conor McGregor in the past, boxing is far and above Ngannou's best skill set. He is stepping out of his comfort zone, but this isn't a Jiu Jitsu match. That would be even worse for Ngannou.
You can’t deny the punching power this man has, though. MMA fans call him the hardest puncher in combat sports. We will see, though, because knockouts aren’t as easy to come by with boxing gloves.
I already know the betting odds are ridiculous, but let's have a look, and we can decide whether or not to take a shot on the underdog or potentially predict the round total.
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Fury vs Ngannou Betting Odds
Tyson Fury: -1500
Francis Ngannou: +800
Over 5.5: (-120)
Under 5.5: (-105)
I'm sorry, but this is absurd. I am not claiming to be sharper than the combined collection of sports betting minds it took to handicap this fight but come on!
This is a fistfight.
Ngannou is live! I am sure his knockout prop isn't far from his betting odds of (+800). Yes, (+850) for a TKO from Ngannou. Obviously, you want to take the moneyline in case something crazy happens.
Francis already has the death touch. There is no debating that. He has the physical capabilities to beat Tyson Fury.
Remember, if the giant gypsy didn't sit up like The Undertaker after being floored by Deontay Wilder, the recent history of boxing's heavyweight division would be completely changed.
Would Fury be able to come back and dominate Wider in the rematch if he didn't have the confidence he would get up from the Alabama native's best shot?
Fury vs Ngannou Analysis
I brought up the Wilder fight because I didn't have Deontay rated as a very skilled boxer going into his series with Fury, and I rated him even lower after those fights.
To me, Francis Ngannou is a better version of Wilder. If you add in the 0 things that he has to lose in this fight, you can see why he is a live dog.
The word is that Fury has already signed the contract to fight southpaw Oleksandr Usyk. He is unapologetically and openly looking past the former UFC Heavyweight Champ.
Fury is there to be hit, and if it is coming from an awkward angle, watch out! Another thing is that Francis will be able to throw his overhand right against a significantly taller opponent.
For better or worse, it is his best punch, and best utilized against taller opponents, particularly ones who don't like to bend their knees. Imagine being Fury's knees with all that upper body weight.
Ngannou has had Mike Tyson training him for a while now. Focusing solely on boxing for two years, coupled with the fact that Fury is probably not killing himself in the gym, could lead to fireworks.
The round total is set pretty low at just 5.5. Has Ngannou ever been knocked out in MMA gloves? No. Does Fury have KO power? No.
I say to sprinkle a bit on the Ngannou win at 8 to 1. Then, we want to attack a prop bet that has insane value. Tyson Fury by decision is (+525). It is a 10-round fight, and I don't see Fury getting Ngannou out of there because he will have to be so careful with the powerful counter over the top.
Is (+525) likely? Of course not, but getting a 15-1 favorite who doesn't have power fighting a less-skilled fighter with ridiculous power and a solid chin isn't bad.
That is especially true when you look at Fury’s moneyline. We are getting a 5 to 1 payout for a 15 to 1 favorite to win a decision. Would you rather play Fury TKO/KO for (-530)?
Fury vs Ngannou Prediction
Francis Ngannou is a live dog in this fight. At 8 to 1, you would be doing yourself a disservice by not putting at least 12.50 on it to make 100 bucks.
Also, throw a few bucks on Fury by decision for more than a 5-1 payout. When picking a method of victory, you have to go against the narrative to get value and the odds on Fury to win by TKO/KO or decision are perfect examples of this.
My prediction for the fight, though, is the over 5.5 rounds for (-105). I project a lot of clinching in the early going as Ngannou will crash the pocket Mike Tyson-style, looking for those shots over the top.
I don’t think Fury would prefer to keep him on the end of his punches but with Ngannou being the far superior athlete, I can see him getting inside when he wants to.
Prediction: Over 5.5 rounds (-105)
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