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NBA Series Predictions and Best Bets: Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks

by Spencer Toth - 4/17/2024

NBA series predictions for Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Damian Lillard

The Milwaukee Bucks will look to finally turn their regular season success into postseason accolades, as they’ve been unable to make any deep runs after their 2021 championship. Standing in their way is an upstart Pacers team, who will be looking to send a message to the league with a first-round victory against one of the league’s consensus top teams. These two teams have become quite familiar with one another, and the bad blood is apparent in this new NBA rivalry. The Pacers were able to eliminate the Bucks from the in-season tournament. However, can they do it again when it matters most?

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Milwaukee Bucks:

The Bucks secured a top 3 seed in the East for the 5th straight season with their 49-33 campaign and have all the tools needed to make a deep playoff run. They went out and brought in Damian Lillard to accompany Giannis Antetokounmpo in the offseason, as the former Trail Blazer is still searching for his first NBA Championship in the twilight of his career. Lillard will have an even bigger task with Antetokounmpo slated to miss at least the first few games of the series.

Lillard’s 24.3 PPG is his second lowest regular season total since 2017, but that is expected as he is no longer the number one option on his team. His efficiency hasn’t dropped, and his ability to generate offense in the screen and roll game is like few others in the league. Not only that, but with seemingly unlimited range from behind the arc, defenders are forced to play tight defense all the way up the court. Lillard’s defensive workrate has been called into question, as the number 2 ranked defense from last season has slipped all the way into the bottom half of the league since his arrival. While all the fingers can’t be pointed at Lillard, he was brought in to transform the Bucks offense, and anything other than incredible offensive performances from Lillard will make life difficult for the Bucks.

Antetokounmpo is the face of the franchise, and he was able to play 73 regular season games, his most since 2018. The recent calf strain has kept him sidelined for the end of the regular season, and the non-contact injury can be a tough one to come back from. When he’s on his game, Antetokounmpo is a truly unstoppable force. Once he gets going downhill, the best the defense can do is foul him and send the 65.7% free throw shooter to the charity stripe. The 61.1% from the floor was the best of his career, and he managed to eclipse 30 PPG for the second straight season. Antetokounmpo injects life into the Bucks, and the rest of the role players will need to step up in his absence to keep the series close before he hopefully returns to the floor.

Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis, and Brook Lopez will be able to chip in offensively, but the 12-15 PPG players will struggle to replace Antetokounmpo’s offense. The pair of big men, Portis and Lopez, can shoot from behind the arc, but the inability to generate their own scoring chances cannot be ignored.

Antetokounmpo will not only be missed on offense, but with Jrue Holiday no longer on the team, he was by far their best defender too. The Bucks had a 121.8 defensive rating without Antetokounmpo this season, which would be the worst in the league. They have the offensive weapons to offset his absence, but they will need to play perfect basketball on both ends of the court to make a deep playoff run.

Indiana Pacers:

The young Pacers team is full of life and will be ecstatic to have a chance at taking down an Eastern Conference giant like the Bucks. Indiana had the second-best offense this season, as their ability to push the pace of play is like no one else in the league. They frequently catch teams in transition and will not take their foot off the gas as they search for their first playoff series win since 2014.

Tyrese Haliburton will be leading the charge, as his 20.1 PPG is the second most on the team, and his 10.9 Assists is the only mark in double digits in the entire league. He deserves a ton of the credit for the Pacers high flying offense. And in his first playoff appearance, he will not be taking his foot off the gas. He can find his teammates without turning the ball over and doesn’t need a second invitation to drive the ball to the hoop.

The Pacers made some savvy trade deadline deals, acquiring Pascal Siakam from the Toronto Raptors. Siakam has taken over as the leading points scorer in Indiana and has gelled nicely with his new team after playing 6.5 seasons in Toronto. His spin move in the post is iconic, and his 54.9 and 38.6 field goal and 3-point percentages are the best in his career. He’s been benefiting nicely from having Haliburton run the offense, and the Cameroon native will relish the chance at another postseason run.

There is no doubt that the Pacers can score the basketball, and they will need to clamp down on defense if they expect to advance in the playoffs. Myles Turner has been a menace in the paint, but a lack of perimeter defense against the league’s best shooters will come back to haunt Indiana. They’ve been able to shoot their way past their defensive lapses in the regular season. However, as the intensity, and level of competition ramps up, that will become a much harder task.

Bucks vs Pacers Predictions

This will be one of the most intense first round series this year, as these two high flying offenses have little to no love lost for one another. The rivalry is intense, and this one is delicately balanced on a knife’s edge. If Antetokounmpo was healthy, the Bucks would be the clear favorites to advance, especially with home court advantage. However, that is not the case, and a second-round berth is available for either team.

Two of the top 6 offenses, equipped with the two worst defenses among playoff teams, have high scoring contests written all over it. Lillard and the Bucks have the experience edge, but their aging legs will be unable to keep pace with the Pacers on defense. Indiana has been carefully constructing their roster over the last few years, and it’s now time to reap those rewards.

The Pacers opened up as +155 underdogs. However, after the news of Antetokounmpo’s injury, the line has moved to exactly 50/50 odds. That should say a lot about the overall feeling for both of these teams, and I have no choice but to side with Indiana in this one. The Bucks inability to defend has cost them before, and they will once again be unable to outshoot their defensive lapses. The Pacers offense has been able to consistently dismantle the league’s best defenses, and anything short of 120+ point performances stringed together in this series would be quite the surprise. The Bucks use their size advantage to offset their perimeter defense. However, without Antetokounmpo, they are vulnerable. The combination of Portis and Lopez on the court at the same time leaves them exposed to the mid-range shot. And without an advantage in the paint from a pair of towering giants, the Pacers will be able to score early and often in this one. Lillard isn’t capable of single handedly leading this team. And with a lack of other options, the Bucks will crumple in the first round once again. Indiana will jump out to a series lead before Antetokounmpo gets back, and the Bucks will be unable to make the comeback.

Prediction: Indiana Pacers in 5 Games

Best Bets:

I’m extremely confident the Pacers will be able to take advantage of the Bucks, and the -110 odds on them to advance will be the first pick. Milwaukee has choked in the playoffs before. And while inexperience from the Pacers lineup may cost them in the future, they have what it takes to send the Bucks packing.

For the second bet, we are going for a massive payout. The Pacers will have an early edge in the series, and the +220 odds on them to take a 3-1 series lead after 4 games is too good to pass up. The Bucks are unlikely to get swept. However, after the Pacers take a 1-1 series back to Indiana, they’ll take care of business on their home court as Antetokounmpo returns in the second half of the series. It’s puzzling to see the Bucks and Pacers have the same odds to take both a 2-1, and 3-1 series lead, as it’s expected the Pacers have an edge early on, and the Bucks storm back with Antetokounmpo back in the lineup. This value cannot be ignored. And while I like the Pacers series handicap, too (-1.5 at+150 and -2.5 at +330), an early lead is far more probable than a late Pacers comeback.

Pick: Indiana Pacers to advance -110

Top Pick: Indiana Pacers to take a 3-1 lead +220

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