Docs Website

54 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

2026 Belmont Stakes Predictions and Recommended $100 Wager

by Spencer Toth - 6/5/2026

Belmont Stakes predictions

The final race of the 2026 Triple Crown goes down this weekend, with the post time scheduled for 7:04 PM EST on Saturday. The nine-horse field features five Kentucky Derby participants, and is a wide-open race with hours to go until it gets underway. The Kentucky Derby winner, Golden Tempo, is set to return to the track after missing the Preakness Stakes. Now that the Morning Lines have been released, we can start to dial in on how we want to attack this betting slate. After opening at 3-1, Renegade has stormed ahead of the pack with 4/5 odds as of writing, with each of the other horses coming in at 6-1 odds or longer. 

There are three horses I see potentially having value in this field, but there are still dozens of ways we can spread our bankroll across this race. If you have $100 allocated to bet on this race, this is how I would allocate those funds. If you have a larger or smaller bankroll for the Belmont Stakes, you can adjust the totals up or down to suit your risk level. 

Get expert sports picks for every league and nearly every matchup on Doc’s free picks page.

Renegade: (4/5)

Renegade has emerged as the clear favorite to win this race. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Renegade has finished in the top-2 in each of his last five races, including a pair of wins highlighted by his Arkansas Derby victory. He finished second behind Golden Tempo in the Kentucky Derby, and looked poised to claim victory before the legendary late dash from the Derby winner. He now has a chance for redemption at the Belmont Stakes, and it is hard to turn down Renegade at any odds given his recent form. 

Renegade relies on keeping a solid pace rather than an early or late dash, which should make him the perfect horse in this field. The Belmont Stakes are full of closers who like to make their moves late, but early restraint from Renegade will allow him to hold onto the lead. Irad Ortiz Jr. is the jockey of choice, and he ran an excellent race on Renegade at the Kentucky Derby. Pletcher has been known to peak his horses too early in the season in the past, but he has shown great restraint by pulling Renegade out of the Preakness Stakes to save him for this race. Ortiz Jr. still has yet to taste victory at the Belmont Stakes, but he has never had the chance to not only ride a horse as strong as Renegade, but to build chemistry with him over the last several races. He is the favorite for a reason, and there isn’t too much money to be made here, but including Renegade in any exotic bets feels almost mandatory given his perfect record in terms of podium finishes in the past. 

Percent to win: 65%

Commandment: (7-1)

Commandment went into the Kentucky Derby as one of the favorites at 5-1, but now has even longer odds in a much shorter field at the Belmont Stakes. That feels like an overreaction to one poor race.

Commandment’s 7th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, behind three other Belmont Stakes participants, was far from impressive. However, poor race strategy saw him fade out in the second half of the race, and I don’t expect the same game plan here heading into the final Triple Crown race. Commandment didn’t suddenly lose the speed that got him four straight race wins before his Derby defeat, and this is the perfect time to ‘buy the dip’ as the public tosses him aside. 

Brad Cox has a history of success at the Belmont Stakes, with it being his only Triple Crown race victory back in 2021. Commandment is arguably his strongest steed yet, and a relaxed game plan from John Velasquez will be essential to his victory. In terms of pedigree, he comes from a long line of stamina-based horses. He isn’t a late closer but rather a stalker, and it has been a pleasant surprise the straight line speed Commandment has shown, given his stamina-based background. It appeared as though Luis Saez made his move a tad too early at the Kentucky Derby, gassing Commandment out, and Velasquez will not make the same mistake at the Belmont Stakes. His post position didn’t help as he got quickly crowded to the back of the pack, and a smaller field here will improve his odds. The reality is that Commandment has already shown he can race with the best of the best, and these 7-1 odds are straight-up disrespectful. We can turn a nice profit on the win, but it feels as though a podium finish is the worst-case scenario. 

Percent to win: 15%

Growth Equity: (12-1)

Growth Equity is the biggest unknown heading into this race, making him the perfect horse to take a stab at with odds like these. He came second in his first two races, but followed that up with back-to-back wins, including a Grade 3 victory at the Peter Pan Stakes. We have seen seven horses win the Peter Pan Stakes and then go on to win the Belmont Stakes, with Arcangelo most recently doing so in 2023. Given the fact that he won the last two races by a relatively comfortable margin, it feels as though we haven’t yet seen the ceiling for Growth Equity. Maybe he ends up falling short, but an uncapped horse like Growth Equity is what we are looking for on a long shot. 

One of Growth Equity’s biggest strengths is the tactical versatility he has. Depending on how the race is being run, Growth Equity can be a pace setter, or he can stay back with the closers. It feels like Growth Equity is the type of horse who can pick off fading competitors down the stretch, and it will all come down to how Manuel Franco acts on his back. Selecting Growth Equity to win may feel like a bit of a stretch, but he will almost certainly be near the front of the pack, and a little bit of regression from the opposition could be enough for him to sneak away with the win. 

Percent to win: 10%

There are a few ways we can spread our $100 wager across these three horses. First of all, Renegade is an overwhelming favorite, giving us little reason to make any place or show bets on him straight up. I think there are a few ‘boom or bust’ horses in this race, but the three we have selected all have a reasonable chance to finish on the podium. The way we have structured our bets means that a Renegade win, a Commandment top-two showing, or a Growth Equity podium finish will leave us close to even. If multiple of those outcomes hit, we should turn a healthy profit. More importantly, this structure gives us exposure to the three horses with the clearest path to outperforming their current odds. 

Renegade to Win: $30

Commandment to Win: $10

Commandment to Place: $20

Growth Equity to Place: $10

Growth Equity to Show: $20

Box Exacta: Renegade and Commandment (2x$4)

Trifecta: Renegade-Commandment-Growth Equity $2

Get free expert sports picks on every game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent Belmont Stakes Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers