Docs Website

54 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

2026 Belmont Stakes Longshots and Expert Predictions for Betting

by Spencer Toth - 6/4/2026

Belmont Stakes longshots

The Belmont Stakes has been a race where underdogs thrive, with eight of the last 20 winners coming in as a 10-1 underdog or longer. There are few feelings better than cashing a big longshot at the Belmont Stakes, and there is no shortage of underdogs to take a look at. In the nine-horse Belmont field, four horses are coming in with 12-1 odds or longer on the Morning Line Odds, while the other five all have 6-1 odds or shorter. Unsurprisingly, the five favorites all raced in the Kentucky Derby, rested their steeds and skipped the Preakness Stakes, and are now looking to capture the final leg of the Triple Crown at the Belmont Stakes. The four underdogs all failed to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, but will be looking to shock the world with an upset win this weekend. There are a few underdogs that could be worth a wager, so let’s dive into the three longshots worth exploring for the Belmont Stakes. 

Get expert sports picks for every league and nearly every matchup on Doc’s free picks page.

History of Longshots at the Belmont Stakes: 

There has been no shortage of longshot winners at the Belmont Stakes. Despite the fact that the field is much smaller than the Kentucky Derby, the Belmont Stakes has produced just as many big underdog wins over the last few decades. Dornoch won as a 17-1 underdog in 2024, adding to the 13 double-digit underdog wins in the last 27 races. That includes Ruler on Ice at 24-1 in 2011, Da’ Tara at 38-1 in 2008, Birdstone at 34-1 in 2004, and Sarava at an astonishing 70-1 in 2002. This year, Vitruvian Man at 30-1 has the longest odds. Recent results show that any of the nine horses could realistically win this race, making it one of the best opportunities to take a stab at some longshot bets. 

Commandment: 6-1

Commandment has the fifth-longest odds to win the Belmont Stakes, so even though the 6-1 price tag is nothing spectacular, he still falls into the longshot category. Trained by Brad Cox, Commandment was one of the frontrunners at the Kentucky Derby with 6-1 odds to win. He fell well short of the pace with a 7th-place finish, but this is a great opportunity to metaphorically ‘buy the dip’ with Commandment. He wasn’t able to close the gap in the Kentucky Derby, but this slightly shorter race lends well to his style of racing. He isn’t a textbook late closer, but certainly is comfortable staying near the back of the pack to kick things off. He rarely slows down and rallied nicely to win the Florida Derby in March 2026. Cox is switching jockeys for the Belmont Stakes, going with John Velazquez in this race. Velazquez is one of the most successful jockeys of all-time, and is the perfect man to lean into Commandment’s strengths in this race. He will want to stay off the lead early, but knows that he can’t fall too far behind or he will have too much ground to make up in the closing stretch. Commandment was one of the strongest contenders on the planet going into the Kentucky Derby, and this price is disrespectful. He has the longest odds of any Kentucky Derby participant, and while his performance wasn’t great last month, we are now getting a discounted price for irrelevant reasons. He isn’t the longest underdog in the race, but Commandment would still be a great bet at 6-1 odds. 

Growth Equity: 12-1

Growth Equity has won each of its last two races and is a bit of an unknown heading into this race. He hasn’t won any massive races yet, and this represents a big step up in competition, but his strong showings and steadily climbing speed ratings mean he could be hitting his prime at the perfect time. Coming off a win at the Peter Pan Stakes, where Growth Equity posted a 98 speed rating, he has a real shot to make waves at the Belmont Stakes. The Peter Pan Stakes winners have traditionally done well at the Belmont Stakes, and Growth Equity was one of the more dominant winners at that. 

He is one of three horses Chad Brown has registered in the event, and he is still searching for his first Belmont Stakes victory. He is listed as a deep closer, but doesn’t always stick to the game plan. There aren't too many clear pacesetters at the Belmont Stakes, which means Growth Equity may be able to stay just off the lead before making a late dash down the stretch. The biggest factor to tail this horse is the untapped upside with his climbing speed ratings. When looking to take a stab at a long shot, the best strategy to use is to find horses that are ‘boom or bust.’ It doesn’t matter if Growth Equity turns out to be a dud and comes last, or has a respectable podium finish. All we care about is the win, and Growth Equity has a ceiling just as high as any horse in this race. 

Ottinho: 20-1

Ottinho will finish near the back of the pack more often than not, but there are valid arguments as to why he might be the next great underdog to win the Belmont Stakes. Ottinho is also trained by Chad Brown and is a half-brother to Gun Runner, one of the best dirt horses in the modern era. His bloodline has him poised to be a great horse in terms of stamina, and if his straight-line speed can improve slightly, he just might find himself on the podium. After finishing second and third in his last two races, Ottinho is a horse that may be able to profit from place or show wagers. He has held his own against strong competition, and while he has fallen short of the outright win, he still often is among the leaders. You don’t need much to justify a stab at 20-1 to win, or still solid odds to place or show, and Ottinho has just enough going for him to warrant a wager. 

Get free expert sports picks on every game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent Belmont Stakes Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers