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2026 Belmont Stakes Betting Trends and Expert Handicapping

by Spencer Toth - 6/4/2026

Belmont Stakes betting trends

The final race of the historic Triple Crown goes down this weekend with the 158th edition of the Belmont Stakes set for 7:04 PM EST on Saturday, June 6th. For the third consecutive year, the Belmont Stakes will be held at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York, due to construction at Belmont Park. 

Over the last century and a half, there have been countless betting trends that have emerged with this race. Most of the three-year-old horses running in this race will have competed at either the Kentucky Derby or Preakness Stakes, giving bettors tangible results against other top horses. When you combine betting trends with a deep dive into each of the horses, you will maximize your chances of coming out on top this weekend. The field has been locked in, and the posts have been drawn, so let’s dive right into the relevant betting trends at the Belmont Stakes. 

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Tail Kentucky Derby Racers:
While it has been a common trend for Preakness Stakes participants to fall short at the Belmont Stakes, the opposite has been true for the Kentucky Derby. With no Belmont Stakes entrants having raced in the Preakness Stakes three weeks ago, this is the strongest trend to follow. It is the first time since 1971 that no horses from the Preakness Stakes are racing at Belmont, as trainers have elected to prioritize rest for the third and final Triple Crown race. 

Fifteen of the last 23 Belmont Stakes winners have also raced in the Kentucky Derby, as the five-week break appears to be the perfect amount of rest for the three-year-old horses. Last year, the trend couldn’t have been more prevalent, as the Kentucky Derby podium of Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza also finished on the podium, in the same order, at the Belmont Stakes. The top horses in the world want to race in the Kentucky Derby, and the top finishers there often do well in the Belmont Stakes, provided they did not also race in the Preakness Stakes. This year, five horses racing also competed in the Kentucky Derby, representing more than half of the field. Golden Tempo, the Derby winner, is joined by Renegade, Chief Wallabee, Commandment, and Emerging Market. Unsurprisingly, those five horses are all coming in at 6-1 odds or shorter, while the rest of the field is at 12-1 or longer. 

A Race For the Underdogs:
The outright favorite doesn’t win every race, and the Belmont Stakes is no exception, but the number of double-digit underdogs that have won the Belmont Stakes is remarkable. Eight of the last 20 winners have come in with 10-1 odds or longer on the Morning Odds list. All four horses who did not compete at the Kentucky Derby are double-digit underdogs, which means there could certainly be a diamond hidden in the rough for the last Triple Crown race of the year. 

Deep Closers Struggle:
After the historic win for Golden Tempo at the Kentucky Derby, where he came from last to first and trailed by as many as 18 lengths, he will be a popular horse at the Belmont Stakes. However, deep closers like Golden Tempo have struggled in this race. The shorter field, combined with a slightly shorter race length compared to the first Triple Crown race, means that strong starters often prevail. There isn’t enough variance in the race for deep closers to find their stride, and they will only prevail if there is an unusually fast early pace set. The Belmont Stakes winner has been within four lengths of the lead after the opening half-mile mark more than 75% of the time, and that trend is likely to continue going forward. 

Beware of the Favorite: 

The double-digit underdogs have thrived in this race, often at the expense of the outright favorites. Even though the Belmont Stakes often features a short field and a favorite with 2-1 odds or shorter, the outright favorite has struggled in this race. Only seven of the last 25 winners have closed as the favorite, which translates to a low 28% win rate. This year, Renegade comes in as a 2-1 favorite, implying a 33% win rate, but if recent trends hold firm, those odds are not long enough to warrant taking a stab. Each race is different, but the short field and narrow track mean early chaos could leave the favorite in the chasing pack. 

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