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2026 Mountain West Tournament Predictions and Expert Betting Picks

by Robert Ferringo - 3/11/2026

Mountain West Tournament predictions Kimani Hamilton UNLV Rebels

The last four years have been one of the golden eras for Mountain West basketball.

The MWC has sent at least four teams to the NCAA tournament – the conference winner and at least three at-large teams – for four straight seasons. The Mountain has sent 18 teams to The Big Dance over the last four years, and 2021 was the last time that they didn’t send at least three teams to the tourney.

However, as we enter this week’s conference tournament, it looks like their streak of three-or-more could come to an end.

Utah State and San Diego State both head to Vegas cautiously optimistic about their positions in next week’s NCAA tournament. But, unless a third team rises up and steals a bid by winning this conference tournament, we may only see two in the field.

The Mountain West Conference Tournament tips on Wednesday, March 11 at the Thomas and Mack Center in Las Vegas. The league will crown its champion on Saturday. Here is Doc’s Sports 2026 Mountain West preview and predictions:

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The Favorite: Utah State (+185)

In the history of the Mountain West Conference, there has only been one regular season champion that has failed to make the NCAA tournament. That happened to San Diego State back in 2016. Utah State should take solace in that history. But they can’t be too complacent. The Aggies lost three of their final five regular season games, including a nightmare 92-65 defeat on this very court back on March 3. They are one of the best shooting teams in the country and will need to get hot this weekend. Utah State won back-to-back MWC titles in 2019 and 2020. It has only been to the finals once in the past five years.

The Contender: San Diego State (+350)

The Aztecs are trying to extend a streak of five straight NCAA tournament bids and will need a solid showing in Vegas to do just that. SDSU lacks the quality that we’ve seen from Brian Dutcher’s program over the past several seasons. Their calling card is still the defense, ranked No. 20 in opponents field goal percentage. SDSU needs more from its guards, though, with its top three scorers putting in just 34.7 points per game. Someone needs to step up if the Aztecs hope to claim their third title in six years.

The Dark Horse: Boise State (+600)

Leon Rice has done a solid job in what was a rebuilding season for the Broncos. Boise shook off a 9-8 start to the campaign and went 11-3 down the stretch. They enter this tournament on a five-game winning streak and are the proverbial Team No One Wants To Play. All five of Boise’s wins lately have come by nine or more points and their size and physicality can cause problems for anyone in the field.

The Spoiler: Nevada (+1600)

It has been an up-and-down season for Steve Alford’s group. At their best, the Wolfpack have wins over Utah State and Boise State. At their worst, they lost to Wyoming and San Jose State by double digits. So, there’s no telling what team is going to show up in Vegas this week. Nevada has a path, though. They could face an equally shaky Grand Canyon squad – playing in its first-ever MWC tourney – in the quarterfinals. A win there would set up a rubber match with Utah State, a team Nevada has already beaten.

Team To Watch: Colorado State (+2000)

There were seven teams in the Mountain West that won 20 games this year. Colorado State is the lowest rated of them. Yet, the Rams have won eight of their last nine games and have beaten three of the top four seeds in this tournament. CSU is No. 8 in the country in 3-point shooting, making 39.4 percent as a team, and if they get hot from the outside then they could cause some serious damage to this bracket.

Early Round Matchup To Watch:

No. 8 UNLV (-3.5) vs. No. 9 Wyoming (3 p.m., Wednesday, March 11)

Home court has not been much of an advantage for the Rebels in this tournament. UNLV has failed to win a single game in the conference playoffs in four of the past seven years. They haven’t won more than one game in the tournament since 2013. Wyoming crushed the Rebels in the only meeting this year, winning 98-66 in Laramie back on Jan. 6. The Cowboys have quietly won five of their last six games and the wrong team may be favored in this one. The favorite is 8-1 ATS in this series.

No. 5 Nevada (-19.5) vs. No. 12 Air Force (5:30 p.m., Wednesday, March 11)

Air Force is one of the worst teams in college basketball. They haven’t won a game since Thanksgiving, losing 24 straight and going 0-20 in Mountain West play this year. They were outscored by an average of 18 points per game in league play and only stayed within 10 points of three conference opponents this year. Nevada won both regular season meetings by 15 points, including their final home game last Saturday (74-59).

No. 7 Colorado State (-6.5) vs. No. 10 Fresno State (9 p.m., Wednesday, March 11)

Fresno State has been a bit of a hard luck team this year, losing two starters to season-ending injuries. After a respectable 9-9 start, Fresno went just 4-9 the rest of the way with two of the wins coming against pathetic Air Force. Fresno did beat Colorado State this season and only lost by four points in the return game, so the Bulldogs are more than capable of competing in this one. Watch Fresno senior Jake Heidgreder. I expect the veteran to go down shooting.

No. 6 Boise State (+15.5) vs. No. 11 San Jose State (11:30 p.m., Wednesday, March 11)

Speaking of hard luck teams, San Jose State lost three starters to season ending injury and Tim Miles watched his season get flushed down the toilet. San Jose State might be the worst defensive team in the country, allowing opponents to shoot 49.4 percent from the field and 36.1 percent from 3-point range. Boise State can pick its score in this one and the Broncos are 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.

2026 Mountain West Conference Tournament Predictions: The No. 1 seed has only won the Mountain West championship five times in the last 20 years. The No. 2 seed has been the much better wager, cutting down the nets 10 times in 20 years, while the No. 3 seed hasn’t won it all since Utah back in 2004. I think Utah State’s first win will be its toughest. And if they survive that then they will take on SDSU in a chalk final. Utah State and SDSU met in the finals as No. 1 vs. No. 2 in back-to-back years (2020 and 2021), with each team getting one. I think we may see a rubber match in the title game between those two.

Robert Ferringo is a member of the Basketball Writers Association of America and a professional sports handicapper for Doc's Sports. He is considered one of the best college basketball handicappers in the country and has posted 15 of 20 winning seasons. He is looking for a monster March run and you can sign up for his college basketball picks and get more information here.

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