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2026 SEC Tournament Predictions and Expert Betting Picks

by Robert Ferringo - 3/11/2026

SEC Tournament predictions Darius Acuff Arkansas Razorbacks

Some of the advanced metrics suggest that the SEC is still the best conference in college basketball.

I’m here to tell you that it isn’t.

Last year the SEC broke college basketball. They sent 14 of 16 teams to the NCAA tournament, provided half of the Elite Eight and Final Four teams, and featured the eventual national champions, Florida. It was a historic year for a league in which basketball has always been second fiddle to football.

The encore to that legendary season was never going to be as pretty. And it hasn’t been, with Florida running away with the SEC regular season title and a host of potential contenders plagued by erratic play. Defense has been optional for a lot of teams in the SEC this season. And that should make their tournament one of the highest scoring and least predictable of any in the country.

The SEC tournament will take place at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN. The opener round tips off on Wednesday with the SEC champion being crowned on Sunday. Here is Doc’s Sports 2026 SEC Tournament preview and predictions:

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

The Favorite: Florida (-175)

It was a shaky start for the defending champions. They opened the year just 5-4 and looked like they had issues with their rebuilt backcourt. Then things clicked into place. The Gators have gone 20-2 since, outscoring SEC opponents by 16 points per game. Florida bullies opponents with one of the nation’s top frontcourts. Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu powered this team to last year’s title as a three-man rotation. Now they play together and are nearly unstoppable. Florida does not have much of a bench. But that’s really the only weakness.

The Contender: Arkansas (+500)

Freshman point guard Darius Acuff was named both the league’s Player of the Year and Freshman of the Year. He sat out Arkansas’ regular season finale but should be back in full effect for the league tournament. Arkansas has been dodging injuries for the past month, with starting guard Karter Knox out for the year and fellow starter D.J. Wagner missing time. Acuff and Co. still averaged 90.3 points per game and have the size and athleticism to run with anyone. Arkansas is just 6-7 on the road or neutral sites this year and they are just No. 255 in field goal defense. Can they get enough stops?

The Sleeper: Alabama (+700)

This Alabama team is not as talented as the ones that have been threatening national titles the past three years. The Crimson Tide are never an easy out, though, and they excel at luring teams into their preferred style of play. Alabama has quietly gone 9-1 after a weak 4-4 start to conference play. They have five players averaging 11 or more points, led by Labaron Philon and his 21.5 per game. Alabama is No. 347 in the country in points allowed and their ability to defend and rebound will determine how long they play in March.

The Spoiler: Tennessee (+1600)

The Volunteers have a chance to end Auburn’s feeble tournament hopes – assuming the Tigers can beat Mississippi State in the opening round. Tennessee will also have a crack at knocking off No. 4 seed Vanderbilt, a team the Vols lost to just last Saturday. However, Tennessee’s postseason hopes may get ruined before they have a chance to do any spoiling of their own. Star freshman Nate Ament has missed the past two games. And if the 6-foot-10 wing can’t go in Nashville then Tennessee’s chances of making a run become extremely slim.

Bubble Teams To Watch: Georgia (+3300)

The Bulldogs padded their resume with one of the weakest nonconference slates in the country. Then they were just good enough in SEC play (10-8) to put themselves on the right side of the NCAA bubble. Georgia has some decent wins (Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky) and have been decent away from home. Georgia plays fast and is No. 6 in the country in scoring (90.4 PPG). Keep an eye on Blue Cain. The do-it-all junior guard is the glue that holds this group together.

Texas A&M (+5000)

Bucky McMillan had big shoes to fill in College Station after Buzz Williams left for Maryland. McMillan has been excellent, guiding this completely rebuilt roster to 21 wins and a likely tournament berth. A win over Oklahoma or South Carolina should seal the deal. With seven seniors and two juniors among the 10 guys in a regular rotation, this team is as experienced as any group in the country. The ceiling is low for this group. But every time they take the court it is a 40-minute fight.

Potential Early Round Matchups To Watch:

No. 9 Kentucky (-7.5) vs. No. 16 LSU (12:30 p.m., Wednesday, March 11)

Kentucky floundered down the stretch, going 2-5 in their last seven games. They did cover the spread in seven of their last 10, though, and have proven themselves away from home with wins over St. John’s, Tennessee and Arkansas outside of Lexington. LSU stinks. They only won three league games this year – two in OT – and just aren’t very good defensively. LSU only lost 74-73 in the regular season meeting with the Wildcats and are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with UK.

No. 12 Auburn (-7.5) vs. No. 13 Mississippi State (3 p.m., Wednesday, March 11)

Auburn should not be in the NCAA tournament. This team is trash and their 16-15 overall mark makes them barely NIT eligible. Auburn lost at Mississippi State on Feb. 18 and Chris Jans’ squad would love to slam the door on Auburn’s tournament hopes. These two teams are a combined 22-40 against the spread this year so neither one of them has been any good at the window. The underdog is 4-2 ATS in the last six matchups, though, and we’ll see how much energy Auburn plays with in this afternoon tip.

No. 10 Texas (-6) vs. No. 15 Mississippi (7 p.m., Wednesday, March 11)

These two teams limped to the finish line in the regular season, with Texas dumping four of its last five and Ole Miss losing 12 of 13. Texas won the only meeting this year, taking a 79-68 decision back on Feb. 7. Ole Miss (10-20 ATS) has been one of the worst bets in college basketball and the two clubs have combined to go 39-21 against the total this year. Texas has covered all three meetings between these two schools since 2018 and will be motivated to pick up one more win for that tournament resume.

No. 11 Oklahoma (-7.5) vs. No. 14 South Carolina (9:30 p.m., Wednesday, March 11)

Oklahoma has quietly been playing its best basketball down the stretch. They’ve won and covered in four straight games and are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight. OU guards Xzayvier Brown and Nijel Pack are both capable of exploding for 20+ points, though they will have their hands full with South Carolina’s Meechie Johnson (17.3 PPG). South Carolina won the first meeting (85-76) at home back on Jan. 20 and the overmatched Gamecocks always fight tooth-and-nail.

2026 SEC Conference Tournament Predictions: It is really difficult to find a scenario where Florida doesn’t play in its third straight SEC championship game. Missouri could put up a fight in the quarters. But UF should pound banged up Tennessee or overrated Vanderbilt in the semifinals. An Alabama-Arkansas semifinal would be a blast, but there are plenty of potential landmines in the bottom of the bracket. I think that the Gators and Crimson Tide will play their way to Sunday in a chalk final…where we could see a potential upset.  

Robert Ferringo is a member of the Basketball Writers Association of America and a professional sports handicapper for Doc's Sports. He is considered one of the best college basketball handicappers in the country and has posted 15 of 20 winning seasons. He is looking for a monster March run and you can sign up for his college basketball picks and get more information here.

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