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2026 Super Bowl MVP Odds with Expert Betting Picks and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 1/30/2026

Super Bowl MVP odds and predictions Cooper Kupp Seattle Seahawks

The Super Bowl MVP award is the pinnacle of any NFL player's career. It means that not only did they reach the biggest game of the season, played in front of the nation, but they were the standout player of the game. Only once has the Super Bowl MVP been a player from the losing team, and that was more than 50 years ago and will likely never happen again. While all 22 starters have a role to play, the Super Bowl MVP award goes to the winning quarterback more often than not. Of the 59 Super Bowl MVP winners, 34 have been quarterbacks. That trend has only intensified in recent seasons, with 14 of the last 19 Super Bowl MVP winners playing that position. 

At Super Bowl LX, Sam Darnold (+110) and Drake Maye (+230) are the outright favorites to win, but there are a few other names worthy of consideration. The last time the Seahawks won the Super Bowl, linebacker Malcolm Smith took home the award, and this year’s Seattle defense is even more impressive. The Super Bowl MVP betting market can be one of the best to attack, and we showed that there is still plenty of money to be made with our impressive Jalen Hurts +350 pick last year. There are a few names that have caught my attention, so here are the favorites broken down with a pair of longshots worth a small investment. 

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Sam Darnold: +110

Sam Darnold is the favorite to win Super Bowl MVP, but he is far from a layup if the Seahawks win, according to the betting odds. Seattle has a -220 moneyline in the Super Bowl, but we are getting a plus money price on Darnold. I know Darnold has had a history of falling apart in big games, and the Seattle defense is poised for a strong showing, but there is still undeniable value on Darnold at +110. He would’ve won the NFC Championship game MVP if that were an award, and he has shown growth in the pocket under pressure. It would take a Herculean 4+ sack or multi-interception game from a defensive player to threaten Darnold’s spot on top of the odds list, and that doesn’t happen often enough to warrant a plus money price. I know there has been buzz around Kenneth Walker III and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, both of whom are very talented, but there have been only two offensive players who didn’t play quarterback to win in the last 16 years. If you think that Seattle is going to win the Super Bowl, ignore the moneyline altogether and dial in on Darnold. We saw Jalen Hurts win it last year despite being behind Saquon Barkley on the odds, and I am expecting a similar storyline here with Darnold. An overlooked quarterback who has been ‘carried’ to the Super Bowl, defying expectations with a solid game and a Super Bowl MVP victory. Sounds very plausible, and at +110, this has plenty of value. 
Value Rating: 5/5

Drake Maye: +230

Drake Maye is the best player on the Patriots, playing a position that dominates the Super Bowl MVP award, but it is still hard to say there is value here. New England has +195 moneyline odds, so you are probably better off taking that than messing around with Maye for MVP. There is always the off-chance that someone really takes off on defense, and we are getting almost the same price for the moneyline. Maye won’t win if the Patriots lose, so there is a significant amount of risk in taking Maye over the moneyline compared to the modest bump in payout. This is no disrespect to Maye, and I do think there is still value here, just not as much as on the Patriots moneyline. 

Value Rating: 1/5

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: +600

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, or JSN, is the biggest non-quarterback threat to win this award. The last two, and five of the last seven non-QBs to win Super Bowl MVPs have been wide receivers. JSN has put up an incredible season thus far and erupted for 153 yards with a touchdown in the NFC championship game. He will be heavily leaned on again, but it is still hard to say this is value with Darnold sitting there at +110. The Seahawks would still have to win for JSN to win this award, and all of his catches and touchdowns are also feathers in the cap of Darnold. If Seattle’s defense is average at best, JSN remains Darnold's primary target, Darnold doesn’t find success elsewhere in the passing game, and the Seahawks win, maybe JSN could win this award. That is an awful lot of things that have to go right for this one to cash, so even though wide receiver is the next best bet after quarterback, we just can’t get behind this line. 

Kenneth Walker III: +850

A running back hasn’t won the Super Bowl MVP since 1998, and that was the legendary Terrell Davis. Walker III has been in a split backfield with Zach Charbonnet this season, but after Charbonnet went down with a season-ending injury a few weeks ago, he is now the lead running back. Seattle is trying to mix in George Holani as the RB2, but he has been generally ineffective compared to the explosive runs Walker III brings to the table. Walker III may not be getting the same hype that Saquon Barkley had last season, but I see a much clearer path to victory for him than I did for Barkley. Seattle has a very strong defense that could contain New England, which would turn Seattle into a run-heavy team. Walker III has no competition in the backfield, and unlike JSN, his successes aren’t directly correlated to Darnold’s. If we see something similar to the 13-3 scoreline in the 2019 Super Bowl, and Walker III finds the endzone, the +850 odds could age quite nicely. We can’t unload the clip considering how often running backs are overlooked, but with more value being put in the position than a few years ago, a sprinkle on Walker III is worthwhile. 

Value Rating: 3/5 

Rhamondre Stevenson: +3000

Stevenson is the most likely Patriot to win this award outside of Drake Maye, but I am just not buying it. TreyVon Henderson will eat up some of Stevenson’s touches, and his lack of big-play ability will see him fail to pass the eye test at Super Bowl LX. Maye is part of the next generation of star quarterbacks, and this +3000 price tag is not long enough to warrant straying from that game script. 

Value Rating: 0/5

Longshots to Sprinkle:

Christian Gonzalez: +15000

It is common knowledge that Christian Gonzalez is the best defender on the Patriots, and I am shocked to see him amongst the bottom-feeders at 150-1 Super Bowl MVP odds. Gonzalez is a versatile cornerback who can get involved in the trenches and will be matched up on JSN for the majority of the Super Bowl. Seattle doesn’t have enough wide receiver depth to ignore JSN for the entire game, meaning Gonzalez will have his chances to make game-changing plays. He has forced two turnovers in the playoffs so far and tacked on a sack against Denver. If he has a similar statline, and the Seattle defense also steps up, this one could be worth a small sprinkle. 
Cooper Kupp: +10000

Cooper Kupp already won Super Bowl MVP in 2022, and he would become the first non-quarterback to win two Super Bowl MVPs with a 2026 victory. JSN will be the primary focus of the Patriots' defense, and we know Kupp is capable of showing up in big games. His career appears to be declining, but it wasn’t very long ago that he was the consensus best receiver in the league. If the Seahawks look to avoid the Gonzalez-JSN matchup, the WR2 in Seattle holds tons of value at odds like these. 

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