Baseball Handicapping Articles

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, April 28, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/27/2018

Did you actually have the stones to bet on the Miami Marlins over Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday? If you did, congratulations. But, I'm guessing you didn't. In Las Vegas, Miami's 8-6 shocker was one of the biggest upset in MLB in the past decade. The Marlins started a former substitute teacher named Trevor Richards. Behind Kershaw, the Dodgers closed as high as -450 favorites at some sportsbooks.

MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 4/27/2018

The Red Sox continue to crush the competition in the early going. Boston is off to a 19-5 start to the season, but the Yankees and Blue Jays look like teams capable of making a run in the American League East as well. Baltimore is a miserable 6-19 on the year, and they are already 13.5 games out of first place. The Angels are 16-9 on the season so far. The Angels are just 5-7 at home, but they are a whopping 11-2 on the road in the early going.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Friday, April 27, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/26/2018

I have been writing these MLB Opening Line Reports for a few years, and if you read them daily then you know I'm essentially contractually obligated to mention Johnny Vander Meer when a pitcher has a chance at a second straight no-hitter. Do I think I will see this happen in my lifetime? No. But Oakland's Sean Manaea goes for history on Friday night. On June 11, 1938, the Reds left-hander Vander Meer no-hit Boston, walking three.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Thursday, April 26, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/25/2018

Want more proof that the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to be a powerhouse into the next decade? They already have two of the top young hitters in the game in Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager, the past two NL Rookies of the Year. On Monday, we got a glimpse of one of the Top 3 pitching prospects in the sport, Walker Buehler. He was called up late last season and struggled in 9.1 innings but that didn't dim his star. Buehler, 23, made his MLB starting debut on Monday against the Marlins and threw five shutout innings. OK, nothing amazing.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, April 24, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/23/2018

In this writer's humble opinion, the best and most important baseball game in the past 40 years or so was Game 7 of the 2016 World Series when the Cubs and Indians - the two teams with the longest championship droughts in the sport - played an epic 10-inning affair at Cleveland's Progressive Field; I believe no MLB game going forward will ever approach the TV ratings of that one (all standard TV ratings are decreasing in every genre).

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, April 21, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/20/2018

Really no surprise that the Cincinnati Reds fired Manager Bryan Price on Thursday with his team off to a 3-15 start. Only the 1931 Reds, who started 2-16, came out of the gate slower than this year's team. Overall, Price's record with the Reds was 279-387. Frankly, the only surprise was that Price wasn't fired either during last season or at least the offseason. My only thoughts would be that: 1) the Reds knew they were going to stink again in 2018 so why ruin some other manager, or 2) the franchise is so cheap it didn't want to pay a guy NOT to manage.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Friday, April 20, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/19/2018

With a loaded farm system, the ability to add payroll and a mega-prospect on the way, it's not impossible that the Atlanta Braves stay in the wild-card race all season (depending on Freddie Freeman's wrist injury suffered Wednesday - more on that Friday). However, they do have a glaring hole at third base. (Ryan Flaherty is raking right now but go look at his career numbers. It won't last.) Problem solved? I wouldn't go that far yet, but it's interesting that the team has signed former Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista to a minor-league deal.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Thursday, April 19, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/18/2018

Were the San Diego Padres even going to be playoff contenders this season? No chance. But, I thought some decent improvement off last year's 71-win team was doable with the addition of free-agent first baseman Eric Hosmer and some really good young talent either already with the big club or on the way. Then, maybe, wild-card contention in 2019. However, one reason for that optimism was good-looking young pitcher Dinelson Lamet. Sadly, he won't pitch at all this year after some elbow pain in his final spring outing.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, April 17, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/16/2018

If I'm Major League Baseball, I'm mandating that any new stadiums being built - both the Rays and A's are trying to get new ballparks - have a retractable roof. The amount of weather postponements already has been staggering. A whopping six were postponed on Sunday, the most since Sept. 12, 2008, when Hurricane Ike was battering the Gulf Coast. The biggest home game of the Red Sox's season is always Monday's Patriots' Day matchup with an 11 a.m. ET start time, but that was called off Sunday afternoon because the weather is so bad in that area. It's the first time a Patriots' Day game wasn't played since 1984.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, April 14, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/13/2018

With Tax Day imminent in the USA, seems a good time to take a look at Forbes' annual list of MLB team rankings. To no surprise, the New York Yankees are the most valuable franchise in the sport at $4 billion. It's the 21st straight year the Yankees are atop the MLB list. Forbes estimated the Yankees' 2017 revenue at $619 million, which is nearly 20 percent higher than any other team. The late George Steinbrenner, by the way, paid $8.8 million for the team in 1973. The Dodgers are second at $3 billion and bring in $522 million of revenue.

MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 4/13/2018

The baseball season is now two weeks old. Not many people could have picked the Mets as the team to have the best winning percentage in baseball at this point. They have had some injuries already as well, but they have continued to play great baseball. The Angels are the other standout early in the season. Shohei Otani has gotten much of the attention (and he's been awesome), but the addition of Zack Cozart has been far more important than most realize as well. The Yankees, Nationals, and Dodgers have all been disappointments so far this year. It's a long season though, so don't get caught up in the standings this early.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Friday, April 13, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/12/2018

As expected, the 2020 MLB All-Star Game has been awarded to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Even though Dodger Stadium is a legendary park with spectacular scenery, it's only the second time the park will host the game, with the first way back in 1980. Since then, every current MLB team has hosted it at least once other than the Tampa Bay Rays in their crappy Tropicana Field. The game will be in Washington D.C. this year (with hopes Bryce Harper will finally compete in the Home Run Derby) and at Cleveland's Progressive Field in 2019.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Thursday, April 12, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/11/2018

Look, I know that some guys become millionaires or billionaires because they know how to take advantage of loopholes in laws. But, man, does it seem like the new Marlins ownership does one weaselly thing after another. The latest? Apparently, the group is claiming corporate ownership in the British Virgin Islands to avoid dealing with a Miami-area judge. The issue at hand is a lawsuit filed by Miami-Dade authorities against former owner Jeff Loria and the Marlins regarding the profits from the sale of the team.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, April 10, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/9/2018

It's a good thing the Angels won the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes this offseason. The rookie has been truly amazing, both on the mound and at the plate. It's as a pitcher the Angels really are fortunate because the team already has lost three other starters to injury. The latest was JC Ramirez, who left Saturday's start with a right elbow strain - that's often an ominous sign. Especially considering Ramirez did not pitch after Aug. 19 last year after undergoing stem-cell therapy to treat a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. He joins Andrew Heaney (left elbow inflammation) and Matt Shoemaker (right forearm strain) on the sidelines. Heaney might be back soon, though.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, April 7, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/6/2018

I haven't seen a first manager to be fired prop yet, and it won't be first-year Phillies skipper Gabe Kapler, but one has to wonder if the team is having some remorse over giving Kapler the job over more qualified candidates. He has been front and center of some very unusual/embarrassing moments already - the worst of which when he summoned a reliever who hadn't even been notified to warm up yet. Kapler is almost too analytical as he has made some very crazy bullpen moves. He also believes in shifting more than any manager in baseball; the other day, he instituted an outfield shift that directly led to a two-run triple that cost the Phillies a game.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Friday, April 6, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/5/2018

In the 2014 & '15 seasons, Cleveland's Michael Brantley was one of the best all-around outfielders in the American League. He hit for a high average, didn't strike out much, had a little pop and would steal some bases. Alas, injuries have hammered him since with Brantley limited to 11 games in 2016 and 90 last year. Good news for the Indians on Friday as Brantley is expected to be activated for the Tribe's home opener. He had major surgery last October to stabilize ligaments in his right ankle, and the team wanted to give him a bit more time to get ready. If Brantley can stay healthy, the Indians are that much more of a threat to end their long World Series drought.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Thursday, April 5, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/4/2018

As expected, the Seattle Mariners have placed slugger and DH Nelson Cruz on the 10-day disabled list with an ankle injury, but the team avoided disaster when an MRI showed no ligament trouble. Cruz started the season with two homers in his first six at-bats - and has at least 39 bombs in each of the past four years -- but slipped on the dugout steps after a two-run homer in the sixth inning of Saturday's game against Cleveland. The move was retroactive to April 1. The M's will likely use Daniel Vogelbach at DH while Cruz is out. That should give you a bit more of a lean toward an under bet in Mariners games if all other things are equal.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, April 3, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/2/2018

If you are the type of baseball fan who celebrates historic milestones, you are likely to be left wanting this season as there aren't any many major numbers set to be reached. The big one would be 3,000 hits, which the Angels' Albert Pujols should land sometime in early May barring injury. Late in the season, also barring injury, he also should join the very exclusive 2,000-RBI club. Only Hank Aaron (2,297), Babe Ruth (2,214), Alex Rodriguez (2,086) and Cap Anson (2,075) are there. I was surprised Barry Bonds wasn't, but he came up four short - probably because he was walked so often. That's really about it. The Tribe's Terry Francona will reach 1,500 wins, which only 24th other managers have done, but meh.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, March 31, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 3/30/2018

Look, I don't pretend to know all that goes into making the annual MLB schedule. Every team has requests, and you have certain times that stadiums might be booked for a concert or whatever. That said, why is MLB staging late-March game in cities like Cincinnati and Detroit? Already, one game has been postponed in each city. Yeah, I lived near both: It's crappy this time of year! Try to make the first week or so of games played in all warm-weather cities (every West Division club, Atlanta, Miami and Tampa Bay) or those with domes (Toronto and Milwaukee). I count exactly 15 that would meet the criteria, which is half the league. Just saying.

Free NBA Picks: Saturday, March 31, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 3/30/2018

If you are a Charlotte Hornets fan, it can get confusing as to franchise records. Of course, the Hornets joined the NBA as an expansion franchise for the 1988-89 season but moved to New Orleans following the 2001-02 campaign and took the nickname with them. However, the NBA recognized what a good basketball market Charlotte was (not sure I agree NBA-wise, but collegiately there are none better) and gave the city an expansion team for the 2004-05 season. That club was nicknamed the Bobcats after then-owner Robert Johnson.