Baseball Handicapping Articles

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, July 10, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 7/10/2018

You will want to pay close attention to the starting pitchers around baseball on Tuesday. Why? Because on usual four days of rest, they would start again Sunday. And pitchers who start the Sunday before the All-Star Game -- which is next Tuesday in Washington, D.C. - are ineligible to pitch in that game. Thus, Houston's Justin Verlander will not be the American League starter as he might have been (has already been replaced on All-Star roster).

MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 6/28/2018

The four best records in baseball are all American League teams. The National League is showing a lot of parity so far this season. The teams who were expected to be at the top of the National League have struggled at least compared to expectations. The Cubs, Dodgers, and Nationals have disappointed thus far. The Dodgers and Nationals have been really banged up. The Cubs pitching staff and defense have underachieved. We're almost exactly halfway through the regular season. Still plenty of time for some major changes in the standings.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Friday, June 29, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/28/2018

Voting for the MLB All-Star starters closes next Thursday, and we could see something quite interesting in the American League. You would think that the Red Sox and Yankees would be dominating the voting because both are having huge seasons and they are the two most popular teams in the American League by far. Since MLB gave balloting over to the fans in 1970, neither the AL nor NL has had eight different teams (i.e. players at positions) win a fan election in the same year. Right now, that is happening in the Junior Circuit.

Expert MLB Handicapping: How Bad are the Royals?
by Trevor Whenham - 6/27/2018

The Kansas City Royals are bad. Really bad. They have sold off or lost most of their top talent in recent years, and they are in a bitter fight with the Orioles for the crown of being the worst team in the league. They are a mess. Typically, when I am breaking down a team I look at individual players, the strength and weaknesses of the team, and so on. For a team like this, though, the story is simple - there are very few strengths, and they could lose 120 games without too much of a struggle. So, instead of looking at the truly bad aspects of this team, let's look at six different storylines that will tell us more about this team. Spoiler alert - what we learn isn't positive.

MLB Betting Advice: Trades that Could Impact Bettors
by Trevor Whenham - 6/27/2018

The calendar is about to turn to July. That means that baseball trade season is about to fire up in a big way. July is when top teams spend too much to try to fill their gaps and bad teams give up on their season and hope to build a brighter future. As always, this promises to be a very interesting July, with a good mix of stars and role players available.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, June 26, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/25/2018

This could be an important week for the Arizona Diamondbacks in their quest to win the NL West for the first time since 2011. That's because two starting pitchers are set to return from injury. The first is Shelby Miller, who was set to pitch Monday in Miami. Miller was acquired before the 2016 season from Atlanta in one of the most lopsided trades (in favor of the Braves) this century. Miller flopped to a 3-12 record and 6.15 ERA in 2016 and then lasted only four starts in 2017 before undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Expert MLB Betting Picks: Division Winner Props
by Trevor Whenham - 6/22/2018

I'm about to look at Major League Baseball division winner prop bets, but before I do I have to get a rant off my chest. The American League just sucks this year. Don't get me wrong, the teams are great at the top and one of the teams is very likely to win the World Series. It's not the quality of the teams or the play on the field. It's that it is barely past the middle of June and there is no drama left in the division.

MLB Expert Handicapping: Orioles One of All-Time Worst
by Trevor Whenham - 6/22/2018

There has to be a team with the worst record in baseball, and at 21-51 the Baltimore Orioles are working really hard to lock up the position they have held for much of the year already. It's ugly, but it is a long way from unexpected. This team was respectable in recent years, but they have totally bungled their roster management, and they are just a mess. They are on track for 115 losses, which just isn't a good thing. The 119 losses by the 2003 Tigers is the all-time record, and you shouldn't count the Orioles out from pursuing that record. There is obviously a whole lot going wrong - far more than we could cover here. But let's take a stab at a few of them:

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, June 23, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/22/2018

I like baseball, but I'm not a millennial and they clearly aren't huge fans of the sport with how ratings and attendance are dropping around the majors. It's because baseball isn't all that fun, frankly. Great tradition, but boring. What would have been fun and drawn some unique fans, for one night at least, was Shohei Ohtani in the Home Run Derby the night before the All-Star Game. That's not happening now with Ohtani injured. Well, there's another (probably not realistic) option nearly as good: Ichiro Suzuki competing in the Derby.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Friday, June 22, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/21/2018

It's great to be an intense competitor, but when you hurt yourself out of frustration you are simply an idiot. Might the Cavaliers had won a game in the NBA Finals if LeBron James hadn't injured his shooting hand punching something after that crushing Game 1 loss? By the way, couldn't have LeBron kept that injury quiet? Almost like he used it as an excuse following the sweep. But, I digress. The latest hot-head idiot is Giants closer Hunter Strickland.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Thursday, June 21, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/20/2018

Did the Washington Nationals and Kansas City Royals just kick off the trade market? They might have as on Tuesday the Royals, who are in full-blown tank/selloff mode, shipped excellent closer Kelvin Herrera to Washington for some prospects - but not the Nats' best ones because Herrera will be a free agent after the season. Herrera was 1-1 with 14 saves, a 1.05 ERA and 0.82 WHIP this year on a bad, bad team.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Wednesday, June 20, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/19/2018

I won't try to explain some trends in sports. For example, the Boston Red Sox used to have a "Ben Affleck Curse." Of course, Affleck, a well-known Red Sox fan, became a star with the release of "Good Will Hunting" on Jan. 9, 1998. Affleck's birthday is Aug. 15. For 15 straight years on Affleck's birthday following the release of the movie, the Red Sox lost. What can I say, this was a thing in Boston. I bring this up because you might want to drop some serious cash on the Atlanta Braves on Father's Day 2019 if Julio Teheran is on the mound.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, June 19, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/18/2018

Want to see the face of Giants manager Bruce Bochy get bright red with anger? Not sure why you would, but if so just say the following: "fractured fifth metacarpal." That was the injury suffered by ace Madison Bumgarner in his final spring training start, and MadBum didn't return to action in the majors until June 5. Now, the same injury has hit third baseman and offseason trade acquisition Evan Longoria. He was hit by a pitch on the left hand (Bumgarner was hit by a line drive on the left hand) Thursday by the Marlins' Dan Straily.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, June 16, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/15/2018

I don't write an Opening Line Report for Monday, so I want to address Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom in this story as he's set to pitch that night in Colorado. Not sure I've seen a guy in recent years with worse luck than deGrom, who should be a Cy Young candidate with his NL-best 1.55 ERA. However, he's just 4-2 overall on the season because of terrible run support. In his past 10 starts, deGrom's ERA is 0.87, but the Mets are 2-8.

Expert Baseball Betting Advice: Are Seattle Mariners for Real?
by Trevor Whenham - 6/15/2018

I've written about my relationship with the Seattle Mariners many times. For many years when I was a kid, my hometown's now-departed ball team was the AAA affiliate of the Mariners, and I couldn't count the number of times I saw them play. Greats (and very-goods) like A-Rod, Edgar Martinez, Omar Vizquel, Tino Martinez, Jim Abbott and many others came through. Ken Griffey Jr. skipped AAA, but he did play one exhibition game here. The greatest part of minor league baseball is the possessive connection you feel with the guys you see on the way up, and those days tied me to the Mariners forever.

Expert MLB Handicapping: Can Los Angeles Dodgers Turn it Around?
by Trevor Whenham - 6/15/2018

The Dodgers had a season win total of 96.5, which was tied with Houston for the highest in baseball. So, needless to say, when they were 16-26 on May 16, it was far below what we were expecting from the team. Injuries were a huge issue, the mental and chemistry issues that always seem to stick to the team were an issue again, and they were on a fast road to nowhere. They have turned a corner and gone 19-6, then, but it is still more of a hot streak than a corrected team right now because of the injury woes.

Expert MLB Betting Advice: Disappointing Marquee Pitchers
by Trevor Whenham - 6/14/2018

Baseball is a game of pitchers, and the biggest names always get the most attention. For the most part they deserve it - a top ace can deliver serious profits for bettors and lift their team to the postseason and beyond. But when those big-name pitchers don't perform up to the level that people expect, or when their team can't win behind them, it can be a real problem for bettors. As we head into the summer portion of the baseball season, here are six big-name pitchers that have been serious disappointments from a betting perspective:

Baseball Betting Expert Advice: MLB Underrated Pitchers
by Trevor Whenham - 6/14/2018

For a lot of baseball bettors, handicapping is decidedly not a sophisticated process. They pick the good teams and bet on them when they have a big-name pitcher going against a lesser name. But the problem with that is that the big names don't always deliver as they should, and there are plenty of guys they might not have heard of - often on bad teams - that are delivering big bucks. Here are seven guys this year that are delivering big profits for bettors while staying well under the radar.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Friday, June 15, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/14/2018

The big news in baseball this week was Detroit losing former Triple Crown winner and two-time AL MVP Miguel Cabrera to a season-ending torn biceps injury. Cabrera isn't close to the Triple Crown guy at age 35 but was hitting .299 in 38 games. Frankly, this doesn't affect the Tigers that much in 2018 and might help them in an indirect way: losing more games. Detroit's in full-on rebuild and needs as high a draft pick as possible in 2019 after getting the No. 1 overall pick this year.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Thursday, June 14, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/13/2018

Jerry DiPoto has done a great job with the Seattle Mariners this season as they attempt to end the longest playoff drought in the sport. He's probably going to be named GM of the Year for all his wheeling and dealing. DiPoto also clearly believes he has a ton of job security. Why do I say this? Because most GMs don't tell their highest-paid player that he won't be playing full time any longer. That's basically what DiPoto said this week about $240-million-man Robinson Cano for when he returns in mid-August from his 80-game PED suspension.