Baseball Handicapping Articles

MLB Expert Handicapping: Orioles One of All-Time Worst
by Trevor Whenham - 6/22/2018

There has to be a team with the worst record in baseball, and at 21-51 the Baltimore Orioles are working really hard to lock up the position they have held for much of the year already. It's ugly, but it is a long way from unexpected. This team was respectable in recent years, but they have totally bungled their roster management, and they are just a mess. They are on track for 115 losses, which just isn't a good thing. The 119 losses by the 2003 Tigers is the all-time record, and you shouldn't count the Orioles out from pursuing that record. There is obviously a whole lot going wrong - far more than we could cover here. But let's take a stab at a few of them:

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, June 23, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/22/2018

I like baseball, but I'm not a millennial and they clearly aren't huge fans of the sport with how ratings and attendance are dropping around the majors. It's because baseball isn't all that fun, frankly. Great tradition, but boring. What would have been fun and drawn some unique fans, for one night at least, was Shohei Ohtani in the Home Run Derby the night before the All-Star Game. That's not happening now with Ohtani injured. Well, there's another (probably not realistic) option nearly as good: Ichiro Suzuki competing in the Derby.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Friday, June 22, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/21/2018

It's great to be an intense competitor, but when you hurt yourself out of frustration you are simply an idiot. Might the Cavaliers had won a game in the NBA Finals if LeBron James hadn't injured his shooting hand punching something after that crushing Game 1 loss? By the way, couldn't have LeBron kept that injury quiet? Almost like he used it as an excuse following the sweep. But, I digress. The latest hot-head idiot is Giants closer Hunter Strickland.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Thursday, June 21, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/20/2018

Did the Washington Nationals and Kansas City Royals just kick off the trade market? They might have as on Tuesday the Royals, who are in full-blown tank/selloff mode, shipped excellent closer Kelvin Herrera to Washington for some prospects - but not the Nats' best ones because Herrera will be a free agent after the season. Herrera was 1-1 with 14 saves, a 1.05 ERA and 0.82 WHIP this year on a bad, bad team.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Wednesday, June 20, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/19/2018

I won't try to explain some trends in sports. For example, the Boston Red Sox used to have a "Ben Affleck Curse." Of course, Affleck, a well-known Red Sox fan, became a star with the release of "Good Will Hunting" on Jan. 9, 1998. Affleck's birthday is Aug. 15. For 15 straight years on Affleck's birthday following the release of the movie, the Red Sox lost. What can I say, this was a thing in Boston. I bring this up because you might want to drop some serious cash on the Atlanta Braves on Father's Day 2019 if Julio Teheran is on the mound.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, June 19, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/18/2018

Want to see the face of Giants manager Bruce Bochy get bright red with anger? Not sure why you would, but if so just say the following: "fractured fifth metacarpal." That was the injury suffered by ace Madison Bumgarner in his final spring training start, and MadBum didn't return to action in the majors until June 5. Now, the same injury has hit third baseman and offseason trade acquisition Evan Longoria. He was hit by a pitch on the left hand (Bumgarner was hit by a line drive on the left hand) Thursday by the Marlins' Dan Straily.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, June 16, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/15/2018

I don't write an Opening Line Report for Monday, so I want to address Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom in this story as he's set to pitch that night in Colorado. Not sure I've seen a guy in recent years with worse luck than deGrom, who should be a Cy Young candidate with his NL-best 1.55 ERA. However, he's just 4-2 overall on the season because of terrible run support. In his past 10 starts, deGrom's ERA is 0.87, but the Mets are 2-8.

Expert Baseball Betting Advice: Are Seattle Mariners for Real?
by Trevor Whenham - 6/15/2018

I've written about my relationship with the Seattle Mariners many times. For many years when I was a kid, my hometown's now-departed ball team was the AAA affiliate of the Mariners, and I couldn't count the number of times I saw them play. Greats (and very-goods) like A-Rod, Edgar Martinez, Omar Vizquel, Tino Martinez, Jim Abbott and many others came through. Ken Griffey Jr. skipped AAA, but he did play one exhibition game here. The greatest part of minor league baseball is the possessive connection you feel with the guys you see on the way up, and those days tied me to the Mariners forever.

Expert MLB Handicapping: Can Los Angeles Dodgers Turn it Around?
by Trevor Whenham - 6/15/2018

The Dodgers had a season win total of 96.5, which was tied with Houston for the highest in baseball. So, needless to say, when they were 16-26 on May 16, it was far below what we were expecting from the team. Injuries were a huge issue, the mental and chemistry issues that always seem to stick to the team were an issue again, and they were on a fast road to nowhere. They have turned a corner and gone 19-6, then, but it is still more of a hot streak than a corrected team right now because of the injury woes.

Expert MLB Betting Advice: Disappointing Marquee Pitchers
by Trevor Whenham - 6/14/2018

Baseball is a game of pitchers, and the biggest names always get the most attention. For the most part they deserve it - a top ace can deliver serious profits for bettors and lift their team to the postseason and beyond. But when those big-name pitchers don't perform up to the level that people expect, or when their team can't win behind them, it can be a real problem for bettors. As we head into the summer portion of the baseball season, here are six big-name pitchers that have been serious disappointments from a betting perspective:

Baseball Betting Expert Advice: MLB Underrated Pitchers
by Trevor Whenham - 6/14/2018

For a lot of baseball bettors, handicapping is decidedly not a sophisticated process. They pick the good teams and bet on them when they have a big-name pitcher going against a lesser name. But the problem with that is that the big names don't always deliver as they should, and there are plenty of guys they might not have heard of - often on bad teams - that are delivering big bucks. Here are seven guys this year that are delivering big profits for bettors while staying well under the radar.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Friday, June 15, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/14/2018

The big news in baseball this week was Detroit losing former Triple Crown winner and two-time AL MVP Miguel Cabrera to a season-ending torn biceps injury. Cabrera isn't close to the Triple Crown guy at age 35 but was hitting .299 in 38 games. Frankly, this doesn't affect the Tigers that much in 2018 and might help them in an indirect way: losing more games. Detroit's in full-on rebuild and needs as high a draft pick as possible in 2019 after getting the No. 1 overall pick this year.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Thursday, June 14, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/13/2018

Jerry DiPoto has done a great job with the Seattle Mariners this season as they attempt to end the longest playoff drought in the sport. He's probably going to be named GM of the Year for all his wheeling and dealing. DiPoto also clearly believes he has a ton of job security. Why do I say this? Because most GMs don't tell their highest-paid player that he won't be playing full time any longer. That's basically what DiPoto said this week about $240-million-man Robinson Cano for when he returns in mid-August from his 80-game PED suspension.

MLB Betting Trends: Totals Report for Hot Over and Under Teams
by Aaron Smith - 6/12/2018

The Cubs and Brewers appear to be set for quite a battle in the National League Central this year. If the Brewers can continue to get the kind of bullpen work they have gotten so far this year, they should be able to hang around all year. Seattle sits first in the American League West, but hardly anyone expects them to finish in that spot. The Mariners are 21-9 on the season in one-run games. The Astros are 6-12 in one run games. Expect some regression to the mean.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Wednesday, June 13, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/12/2018

Now that the NBA and Stanley Cup Finals are over, we are in the dead zone of the sports calendar until the NFL Preseason begins. It's basically baseball with a dab of golf and tennis until then. The story of the summer in MLB was set up to be Shohei Ohtani, the hitting & pitching rookie sensation for the Angels. It would have been fantastic to see him perhaps compete in the Home Run Derby and the All-Star Game.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Tuesday, June 12, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/11/2018

I'm pretty tied into baseball and can name the majority of rosters on every team. I knew, for example, that Baltimore slugger Chris Davis was having a terrible season. However, sometimes you have to read a story with some advanced analytics to understand how bad. Davis, who is making a little more than $21 million this season and will every year through 2022 (worst contract in MLB history?) is hitting .157 with four homers and a .236 on-base percentage. He has struck out 80 times in 198 at-bats and has scored just 10 runs - obviously four of those came via himself.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Saturday, June 9, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/8/2018

On the Friday Opening Line Report, I wrote that the Yankees were surely going to be in the trade market for a starting pitcher because a promising young arm - Jordan Montgomery - was done for the season. It's likely the same situation in St. Louis, although not quite as dire in the rotation. Alex Reyes, the Cards' top prospect and Top 20 overall in MLB, is done for the year, and you have to feel bad for the 23-year-old. As a rookie in 2016, Reyes showed his promise by going 4-1 with a save and 1.57 ERA over 46 innings, striking out 52.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Friday, June 8, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/7/2018

The Yankees were probably going to have to go out and get a starting pitcher regardless ahead of the July 31 deadline because everyone behind young ace Luis Severino is a question mark in one regard or another. Now, however, it's a sure thing because young left-hander Jordan Montgomery will undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery - meaning we won't see him until probably the second half of the 2019 season. Montgomery originally was diagnosed with a flexor strain in his elbow in early May, and the club said he would miss 6-8 weeks.

Daily Expert MLB Picks: Thursday, June 7, 2018, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/6/2018

If this were the day after the NFL or NBA Draft, we'd be talking about early Rookie of the Year odds. However, the Major League Baseball amateur draft is easily the biggest crapshoot of them all. The vast majority of the guys taken will not sniff the majors. The Detroit Tigers picked first on Monday - only because Pablo Sandoval hit a walkoff homer on the final day of the 2017 season to drop the Giants to the No. 2 overall pick - and took Auburn pitcher Casey Mize, the consensus No. 1 overall prospect but far from a sure thing like a Stephen Strasburg.

Expert MLB Betting Advice: Best and Worst Road Teams
by Trevor Whenham - 6/5/2018

The teams with the five best road records in the American League in 2017 all made the playoffs. In the National League it was five of the top six - Milwaukee had one more win than Arizona and Colorado but fell one game short of the wild card. It's ridiculous to think that one number can tell you everything you need to know about a baseball team - it's a much more complicated sport than that. But looking at road records is a good short cut to getting a sense of strong and weak teams. It's no surprise why this is - winning on the road is hard, so the better a team is at doing so the better they probably are. So, without further ado, let's look at what we have learned from road records this year: