NBA Handicapping Articles
Expert NBA Handicapping: Indiana Pacers for Real
by Trevor Whenham - 1/6/2019
The Eastern Conference of the NBA was supposed to be a three-team race this year. The problem, though, is that no one told the Bucks and the Pacers that they weren't invited. The first-place Milwaukee squad, and the third-place team from Indiana, are playing really great basketball, and they aren't going to be easy to displace from their home court perches as the season progresses. Milwaukee is the less surprising of the two teams, but Indiana has been a marvel to watch.
Expert NBA Handicapping: Teams Different in New Year
by Trevor Whenham - 1/5/2019
The turn of the calendar doesn't have actual significance in the NBA, but it is still an interesting milestone. It comes close to the middle of the season, so it is a good time, as we make our own resolutions, to also assess where teams are at and where they might be going. For many teams, what we have seen so far will be some version of what we will see going forward - the Cavs and Bulls aren't going to suddenly learn how to play basketball, and the Thunder or Bucks aren't going anywhere.
Expert NBA Handicapping: Dallas Mavericks Off to Strong Start
by Trevor Whenham - 12/20/2018
Even though the Dallas Mavericks spent most of the first 28 games of the season in a playoff spot in the Western Conference, it would have been tough to truly convince yourself that they were a playoff team. But they certainly are fun to watch and easy to root for. With a young superstar and a strong young core, this is a team clearly moving in the right direction. And they have been a treat for bettors as much as for casual fans this year. So, what is going right for Dallas? And wrong? And what does it mean for bettors?:
Expert NBA Handicapping: Detroit Pistons Looking Like Probable Playoff Team
by Trevor Whenham - 12/20/2018
The Detroit Pistons beat the Timberwolves in overtime in Minneapolis on Wednesday night. It isn't an impressive accomplishment on the surface - the T-Wolves aren't great. And it only moved the Pistons a game above .500 on the season, which is hardly a reason to plan a parade. But they play in the Eastern Conference, so .500 is as good as .600 in the West.
NBA Handicapping and Betting: Sacramento Kings Great for Profits
by Trevor Whenham - 12/20/2018
Do you remember what you were doing in the spring of 2006? That was a very long time ago, so I wouldn't blame you at all if you didn't. I ask only because that spring, the Sacramento Kings, driven by leading scorer Mike Bibby, lost a first-round playoff series to the Spurs 4-2. And that only matters because the Kings have not been in the playoffs since and have only rarely been in a playoff spot at all since then.
Expert NBA Handicapping: Odd Record Splits
by Trevor Whenham - 12/18/2018
If you have watched the NBA for a while, then you probably know how you expect things to generally turn out in the league. Western Conference teams generally do well against the East. Teams are usually better at home than on the road. Familiarity usually makes a team's own division competitive. Most teams fit into those expectations and others like them.
Free NBA Picks: Saturday, Dec. 8, 2018, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 12/7/2018
Look, you should be fading the Atlanta Hawks most nights. They are terrible and planned to be. This is a tanking season. They also made a mistake trading Luka Doncic for Trae Young on draft night, but that's a story for another day. You really should be fading the Hawks for the next three weeks or so because probably their best all-around player, Taurean Prince, is going to miss at least that long with an ankle injury.
Expert NBA Handicapping: Home and Road Differences
by Trevor Whenham - 12/4/2018
In the NBA, the difference between a competent team and a great one is their ability to play well on the road. If you want to make a deep playoff run, you need to limit the number of games you play, and that means winning well away from home - ideally to win half your games away from home. It's no coincidence that the Raptors and Nuggets, the current conference leaders, are also the strongest road team in each conference.
NBA Betting and Handicapping: Studs and Duds Against the Spread
by Trevor Whenham - 11/29/2018
We are, more or less, a quarter of the way through the NBA season. There is a lot left to be played out, and we certainly aren't likely to see the same standings at the end of the year that we do now - on many fronts. But this is a good time to take a step back, look at where we are so far, and see which teams have done well for bettors and which have sunk. Here are the betting studs and duds of the first quarter of the NBA season:
Expert NBA Handicapping: Utah Jazz Off to Rough Start
by Trevor Whenham - 11/29/2018
A whole lot of things in the NBA haven't turned out so far like we expected them to a quarter of the way through the NBA season. The Rockets are struggling badly. The Celtics aren't much better. The Hornets, Clippers and Grizzlies are all division leaders. The blissful happiness in Golden State has dissolved into a pile of bitter resentment.
Expert NBA Handicapping: Betting Teams Out of Playoff Chase Already
by Trevor Whenham - 11/29/2018
It's not even December yet, but for several teams in the NBA it might as well be June. Nothing that happens between now and then is going to make any difference for them. They have played only a quarter of their games, but their seasons are essentially over. There is nothing left to play for. In terms of any competitive sense, all is lost. For the fans of these teams, there is nothing but despair. But for bettors the failure can present real opportunities for profit. At least something good can come from how bad these teams are.
NBA Betting Advice: Handicapping the Golden State Warriors Drama
by Trevor Whenham - 11/21/2018
I was supposed to write about the Warriors a week and a half ago, and it was going to be a very different article than it will be now. A simpler, happier one. That was right before Draymond Green lost his mind and set off a chain of events that could ruin everything that has been built with the Warriors. Or it might not mean anything in the long term. But the uncertainty is something we haven't been used to with this team. They had been so stable and dominant it was almost boring. But it's not boring anymore. Just confusing. So, what do we know?
NBA Betting and Handicapping: Los Angeles Clippers for Real After Hot Start?
by Trevor Whenham - 11/21/2018
Just 24 hours after the Washington Wizards' management group seemingly put every asset they have on the market - including, presumably, the uniforms, if the price is right - the team was understandably in a bit of chaos. They were a lousy team with consistently poor effort at the best of times, and this certainly wasn't going to help.
Expert NBA Handicapping: The Cavaliers Post-LeBron
by Trevor Whenham - 11/21/2018
To the surprise on absolutely no one with even a small part of a brain, the Cleveland Cavaliers were left in total and utter disrepair with the departure of LeBron James to the Lakers. I mean, what else could you possibly expect? The guy hates young players, collects old teammates that make him comfortable, doesn't let a coach have a mind of his own, and takes the team on his shoulders when there is heavy lifting of any kind to do.
Expert NBA Handicapping: Toronto Raptors True Contender in East
by Trevor Whenham - 11/16/2018
The Toronto Raptors suffered just their third loss in 15 games on Wednesday night against the Pistons. It's the first time all season that they probably wish things had turned out differently. It was the first time former coach Dwane Casey, who was fired after last year's playoff debacle and subsequently named Coach of the Year, returned to Toronto.
2018 Orlando Magic Predictions with Futures Odds and Expert Picks
by Trevor Whenham - 9/17/2018
Ever since Dwight Howard left town to embark on his quest to play for every team in the league, the Orlando Magic have been so forgettable they are essentially anonymous. They are the last team anyone thinks about - because they give us no reason to think about them. Their biggest claim to fame right now is that they are the team that gave up on Victor Oladipo far, far too soon. They could have had a budding superstar, but instead they have memories of the epic Serge Ibaka era. They believe that they are making progress, but can that possibly be true?
Who Will The Los Angeles Lakers Play On Christmas Day?
by Raphael Esparza - 7/9/2018
It's no secret that Christmas Day in the sports world is all about the NBA. So far this summer the talk in the NBA has been all about LeBron James signing with the Los Angeles Lakers and when I saw that, I was thinking about one day and one day only: who are the Lakers playing on Christmas Day?
NBA Draft: Players That Will Make Biggest Impact
by Trevor Whenham - 6/27/2018
This was a deep and talented class of rookies welcomed into the NBA after the 2018 NBA Draft. There might not be the surefire superstar at the top that we have seen in some years, but the general level of players in the first round feels higher than many years, and so does the number of teams that can reasonably expect a decent impact from their newly-added players this season. It only makes sense that we look at what some of these guys might do this coming year. I don't care about what their whole career arcs can be - that's less interesting from a betting perspective. I'm just focused on what we might expect from them in their first season.
NBA Rookie of the Year Odds with Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 6/26/2018
Now that the NBA Draft is done and we know which young stars will be playing for which teams, we can look ahead to the ultimate prize for the recently drafted players at the end of an NBA season - the Rookie of the Year crown. It's a deep and talented field that lacks a runaway star, and we don't have a guy like Ben Simmons lurking to grab it from another draft class. That makes for an interesting race to handicap. I think there is a clear favorite, but the oddsmakers don't agree with me. How about you? (Odds are from Bovada):
NBA Draft Props: Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 6/20/2018
The NBA Draft is almost here. And the best part of the draft -- aside from the crazy trading action and the silly suits, of course - is the prop bets. To get ready for the draft we are mostly going to look at the most interesting kind of draft prop in my eyes - the draft position totals. The books set a number, and we have to decide if a guy will be selected higher or lower than that number. We'll look at six of those that stand out and then check in on a couple of other interesting props as well.
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