2023 Alabama Crimson Tide Football Predictions and Betting Odds
2022 Record: 11-2 overall, 6-2 in SEC
Head Coach: Nick Saban, 17th year: 194-27; 28th year overall: 285-69-1
You know the deal. You know you have one of the four best teams in college football before spring ball starts, we know you have one of the four best teams in college football, and of course the College Football Playoff committee knows you're one of the four best teams in college football.
All you have to do is finish the regular season with one loss, and you’re in. That's asking for something amazing out of just about everyone else, but that's part of the Alabama Crimson Tide DNA under Nick Saban. Two losses - no matter how they happened - and you’re not in, at least until next year when the CFP expands. That's the deal, and it has worked out really, really well over the last 14 years going back to the BCS days.
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Crimson Tide Offensive Outlook for 2023
The offense didn’t have its normal array of sure-thing superstar wide receivers, the ground game was fine but not special, and that 10-2 regular season record might have been flirting with 8-4 if Bryce Young wasn’t under center. It was a good attack, but it missed the steady power running game, wasn’t amazing on third downs, allowed a few too many plays behind the line, and wasn’t always as sharp as normal. Last season didn’t represent the Alabama offense’s best work, and it still averaged 477 yards and 41 points per game.
The starting quarterback is one big question mark. Julian Sayin appears to be the next Alabama superstar up, but he’s not arriving until next year. For now, Jalen Milroe is maybe/sort of/possibly the odds-on favorite -- he was great in place of an injured Young with 91 rushing yards in the 49-26 win over Arkansas that was WAY tighter than that until late -- but the passing accuracy is questionable. Ty Simpson has the bigger upside. The 5-star get from last season and has every shot at the gig, but he’s a step behind Milroe and suffered a slight elbow injury this offseason. And then there’s the wild-card -- Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner is a good runner and an okay passer.
Jameson, Metchie, DeVonta, Waddle, Jeudy, Ruggs, Ridley, Amari, Julio… Alabama’s wide receiver talent run was legendary, and last year it dropped off. Bryce Young spread the ball around, and RB Jahmyr Gibbs was the most reliable target, but the wide receivers -- while dangerous -- weren't quite at the same level of past units.
That’s probably going to change with the top two receivers -- Jermaine Burton and JaCorey Brooks -- returning. They’re both dangerous deep threats. Isaiah Bond is a good-looking young option, and coming in from the JUCO ranks is Malik Benson, a potentially devastating playmaker who can do a little of everything. Also added to the mix is Maryland transfer CJ Dippre, an NFL-sized pass catcher -- 30 grabs for 314 yards and three scores -- who should thrive with more work.
Crimson Tide Defensive Outlook for 2023
The defense was a tad too inconsistent against the run in 2022, the secondary had a few high-profile bad days -- Tennessee, Texas -- there were problems picking off passes, and the penalties at times were obnoxiously strange. And Alabama finished 12th in the nation in total defense, ninth in scoring D, and No. 1 in the SEC in pass efficiency defense.
There’s no replacing Will Anderson, even if you’re Alabama. Veteran Chris Braswell moves into the marquee JACK position with the responsibility of turning it loose into the backfield. Pair him with Dallas Turner on the other side, and the Tide will get to the quarterback. Deontae Lawson will come up with a ton of tackles in the middle, and the spotlight will be on Georgia transfer Trezmen Marshall at one outside gig.
As always, the front three is loaded with massive humans who can move. Jaheim Oatis is a 6-5, 328-pound space-eater for the middle of the thing, and in the rotation is 6-3, 309-pound Jamil Burroughs. Tim Smith is a 6-4, 302-pound veteran on one end, and 6-5, 292-pound Justin Eboigbe rounds out the other side.
The secondary is way too good to only pick off six passes again - Will Anderson had one. Broken up pass machine Kool-Aid McKinstry might be the first corner off the board next year, a top ten overall pick, or both. On the other side will likely be Louisiana transfer Trey Amos, a solid veteran with 49 tackles and 13 broken up passes over the last two seasons.
Malachi Moore is a next level safety who’s only missing the big stats -- those should come this season -- and stepping in for new Cincinnati Bengal Jordan Battle at strong safety is the combination of UAB transfer Jaylen Key and super-recruit Caleb Downs.
Alabama Crimson Tide Season Prediction, Win Total, Best Bets
This year’s team has to earn its stripes with so many shifting starting parts to assume all the tough nail-biter SEC games will to its way. Alabama is going to win 10 games in the regular season -- at least. It if doesn’t, it’s a crazy outlier of a year and the end of an impossible 12-year run of hitting double-digit victories before the SEC Championship. That will be put to the test early.
The road game at USF shouldn’t be tough, but that’s the first in a stretch of three road games in four weeks. After that, Alabama goes a month without having to take a trip anywhere, and it leaves the state just once -- at Kentucky -- after October 7.
There’s no Georgia, no Florida, and no South Carolina, Missouri, or Vanderbilt. The Tennessee game is at home, and so is the date with LSU, making Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Kentucky, and Auburn the SEC road games.
2023 CFN Preseason Prediction: 10-2
2022 Record: 11-2
Aug 26 OPEN DATE
Sept 2 Middle Tennessee W
Sept 9 Texas W
Sept 16 at USF W
Sept 23 Ole Miss W
Sept 30 at Mississippi State W
Oct 7 at Texas A&M L
Oct 14 Arkansas W
Oct 21 Tennessee W
Oct 28 OPEN DATE
Nov 4 LSU W
Nov 11 at Kentucky W
Nov 18 Chattanooga W
Nov 25 at Auburn L
Alabama Crimson Tide Football Best Bets
Over 10.5 wins +150
To win the SEC Championship Game +300
To win the National Championship +600
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