2025 Belmont Stakes Betting Trends

by Spencer Toth - 6/5/2025

The 2025 edition of the Belmont Stakes features a stacked list of horses and promises to be one of the best races in years. The Belmont Stakes is the third race of the Triple Crown series, and the usage of betting trends is the perfect way to maximize your chances of staying in the green. The combination of betting trends, hard-nosed research, and a little bit of luck is the winning formula for the Belmont Stakes, and there is plenty of money to be made this weekend. Here are the betting trends for the 2025 edition of the Belmont Stakes, with how they can be best implemented on your tickets.

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Fade Preakness Competitors:

It may seem obvious that horses who raced and did well at the Preakness Stakes will have an increased chance of winning at Belmont, but that could not be further from the truth. Of the last 21 winners of the Belmont Stakes, only three have run in the Preakness Stakes. Fatigue is a real concern for these horses, and even a three-week break is not necessarily long enough to get back to full strength. Journalism and Heart of Honor are the two horses competing in both races, and might be worth avoiding this weekend. However, those three Preakness contestants that also won the Belmont Stakes all won the Preakness Stakes, which makes Journalism a potential contender to buck this trend. A Heart of Honor victory would be a tall task, as a Preakness loser hasn’t won the Belmont Stakes in more than 25 years.

Follow Kentucky Derby Contestants:
Unlike the Preakness Stakes, the Kentucky Derby is long enough back that horses who compete in both races end up doing very well. Fourteen of the last 22 Belmont Stakes winners also competed in the Kentucky Derby. It appears as though the break of a little more than a month is the perfect time for the steeds to recover. Three horses in the Belmont Stakes also ran in the Kentucky Derby, and they all finished on the podium in that race. Sovereignity finished first, with Journalism and Baeza not far behind. This trio of horses are the outright favorites to win the Belmont Stakes, making Sovereignity and Baeza strong horses to watch.

Don’t be Afraid of the Underdog:

The Belmont Stakes has produced countless big winners over the years, and this has been one of the most consistent races for long underdogs. Nearly half of the Belmont Stakes winners in the last 20 years have opened up as double-digit underdogs on the Morning Odds list. Dornarch won last year after opening at 15-1 and closing at 17-1. The shortened field means there are fewer long underdogs in this year's race, but Hill Road, Crudo, Uncaged, and Heart of Honor all fit this description. If you are looking for a chance at a big payout at the Belmont Stakes, skip the middling favorites and go straight for the big underdogs.

Todd Pletcher’s Specialty Race:
Todd Pletcher will not go down as the greatest trainer of all time, but he is incredibly dominant at the Belmont Stakes. He has four victories in the last 18 years, but the more impressive statistic is his frequency on the podium. Pletcher has been responsible for 16 of the 60 horses that have finished on the podium in the last 20 years, which is an incredible rate of return. Pletcher has a pair of underdogs in Uncaged (30-1) and Crudo (15-1) at this year's race, and taking this duo to Win, Place, or Show could prove to be a very profitable wager.

Quick Starts are Everything:

The Belmont Stakes has traditionally been 1 1/2 miles, but this year's race has been shortened to 1 1/4 miles due to ongoing track renovations. This 1/4 mile difference will play a huge role, and this trend is even more apparent with that in mind. Sixteen of the last 20 Belmont Stakes winners have been within 4 lengths at the half-mile point, and that was when there was still a full mile to go. Despite this being a longer race, getting off to a strong start has proven an incredibly effective strategy.

Alarming Trend Amongst the Favorites:

The outright favorite has gone on to win the Belmont Stakes a little less than half the time since the turn of the century, but the second and third choices have flamed out. In the last 12 years, there has been just a single victory from a horse that closed with the second or third lowest odds. To take it a step further, the expected third-place finisher, this year Baeza, has only finished on the podium twice in that span. The Belmont Stakes has been a race where either the favorite or a sizable underdog has prevailed. Horses like Sovereignity, Baeza, and Rodriguez offer payouts between 2-1 and 6-1, but recent trends indicate you are better off taking a longshot over a slight underdog.

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Pick:	Seattle +180
Start:	June 8, 2025 @ 7:00 PM
Expert:	Doc's Sports

Analysis:

Doc’s Sports Free MLS Soccer Play. Take Seattle +180 over Vancouver (7 p.m. EST, Sunday June 8) (Graded after regulation time - 90min - plus injury time – a DRAW is a loser here) This is a great price on the Sounders, and we think they have a great chance for the outright win. They like playing in Vancouver and have won consecutive matches here. Their last visit, in October, produced a 3-0 victory. Home pitch hasn’t meant much in this series lately, as the road side has earned points in five straight meetings. There is no other way to say it – the Whitecaps look like crap lately. They have lost their winning touch. They have just one win in four MLS matches against a favorable schedule. On Sunday they played one of the worst matches we can remember in the Champions Cup final against Cruz Azul in Mexico City. They squandered all their hard work to get to the final only to lose, 5-0. They not only didn’t have a shot on goal, but not even a shot at all. They earned less than 33 percent on possession. Seattle has won two of three MLS matches, and they are in solid form. They had a setback against Minnesota at Lumen Field last time out, but they did score two in a losing effort. They are very comfortable playing here in Vancouver, and they can make up a lot of ground in the standings by earning three points on the road here. Read More Read Less

2025 Belmont Stakes Betting Trends

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