Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

2025 Belmont Stakes Predictions and Recommended $100 Wager

by Spencer Toth - 6/4/2025

Belmont Stakes predictions

The final leg of the 2025 Triple Crown takes place this Saturday, June 7, with post time set for 7:04 PM EST. While there's no Triple Crown at stake as Journalism and Sovereignty split the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, the Belmont Stakes still promises a thrilling showdown between top contenders in an eight-horse Belmont Stakes field.

There are a wide variety of ways to attack the 2025 Belmont Stakes, and understanding your options is crucial to turning a profit this year. This year's edition of the Belmont Stakes will not take place at Belmont Park due to track renovations and will be held at the Saratoga Race Course. As a result, the race has been shortened from 1 1/2 miles to 1 1/4 miles. 

Even though there will be no Triple Crown winner, this is one of the most highly anticipated Belmont Stakes in a considerable time. All three podium finishers from the Kentucky Derby are entered in this race, and the battle for victory will undoubtedly come right down to the wire. Sovereignty is slightly behind Journalism on the morning odds list despite beating him at the Derby, with third-place finisher Baeza not far behind. With all of this in mind, here are the horses to bet on at the Belmont Stakes with a recommended $100 wager across a variety of bets. 

Get sports picks for every league and nearly every matchup on Doc’s free picks page.

Sovereignty: Post Position 2, 2-1

We will be staying away from the outright favorite in Journalism, and instead chase the slightly longer odds available with Sovereignty. Sovereignty edged out Journalism at the Kentucky Derby and was able to rest over the last month after he sat out of the Preakness Stakes. This horse proved he is the strongest in the field, and the combination of extra rest and a better price makes him the favorite to win at the Belmont Stakes. Sovereignty is trained by William I. Mott, who is still missing the Belmont Stakes to complete his career Triple Crown. Mott is a decorated and experienced trainer who knows what it takes to succeed, as illustrated by the fact that he sat Sovereignty out of the Preakness Stakes. That move alone took guts, and I do not doubt that Mott knows how to get the most out of his prized steed. This 1 1/4 long race is the perfect distance for Sovereignty, and the 2-1 odds still offer a tasty payout on his victory. One of the two outright favorites will likely prevail at the Belmont Stakes, and this is the horse to bet on this weekend to maximize your chances of taking home a winning ticket. 

Percent to win: 50%

Baeza: Post Position 6, 4-1

Baeza finished third in the Kentucky Derby last month, but he was right with the leaders down the final stretch. There are certainly arguments to be made that Baeza could have odds much closer to Sovereignty and Journalism, and we will be taking this tantalizing payout as a result. Baeza only has one win in his four races this year, but he has yet to fall short of a podium position. Falling just short of beating Journalism is nothing to be ashamed of, but there is no doubt his team will want to finally take home a meaningful victory. Three of the last four Belmont Stakes winners ran in the Kentucky Derby but did not win, so his shortcomings at the Run of the Roses are not a good indicator of his potential finish at this weekend’s race. He was a late addition to that race and had an unfavorable post position of 19, yet used his late charge to finish a neck behind his rival. The level of upside offered with Baeza is hard to dispute, and there aren’t many jockeys that can match the experience and winning history of Flavien Prat. Baeza has everything you are looking for in a middle-of-the-pack horse on the odds, and this is my favorite horse at the Belmont Stakes this year. 

Percent to win: 40%

Crudo: Post Position 5, 15-1

Crudo is the best longshot to attack at the Belmont Stakes, as this is a flat-out ridiculous price tag for a horse with this kind of upside. He has won back-to-back races heading into the Belmont Stakes, including a dominant win at Sir Barton on the same weekend as the Preakness Stakes. Fatigue could be a concern, but the stamina Crudo has shown makes that less of a worry compared to other horses in the field (mainly Journalism). The son of Justify is trained by Todd Pletcher and will have John Velasquez on his back for this race, and there is no shortage of experience in that barn. Velasquez already has six Triple Crown race wins in his career, most recently winning the Preakness Stakes in 2023. He is the perfect man to tame a horse like Crudo in this race, and I trust his race strategy to prevail over some of the other overexuberant longshots. Crudo has the stamina needed to stalk down the leaders, and this is the horse to take for a potentially massive payout this weekend. 

Percent to win: 10%

Belmont Stakes Recommended $100 Wagers:

In a race without a clear dominator and with the distance shortened to 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga, there’s a real opportunity to find value beyond the favorite. Journalism may be the morning line pick, but the combination of Sovereignty’s rest advantage and Baeza’s underrated form makes them far more appealing at their respective odds. Crudo, meanwhile, offers the kind of longshot potential that can turn a modest wager into a major payday, especially under a savvy jockey like John Velasquez. This recommended ticket balances risk with upside, hedging through exactas and place/show bets while still taking a stab at a high-payout superfecta. Whether the favorites hold or an upset shakes up the field, this betting strategy gives you multiple paths to cash in on what promises to be one of the most exciting Belmont Stakes in years.

Box Exacta, Baeza and Sovereignty: $23x2 

Baeza to Show: $10

Crudo to Win, Place, and Show: $5 each

Box Superfecta: Journalism, Baeza, Sovereignty, and Crudo: $1x24

Exacta, Journalism and Sovereignty: $5

Get expert sports picks on every game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

Most Recent Belmont Stakes Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers