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2025 Belmont Stakes Long Shots: Expert Advice and Betting Tips for Finding Value

by Spencer Toth - 6/4/2025

Belmont Stakes long shots

The Belmont Stakes is the final race of the Triple Crown Series, and is the perfect opportunity to target some longshots on the morning odds list. There are just eight entrants in the 2025 Belmont Stakes, fewer than the nine horses that ran at Preakness, and far fewer than the 20-horse race in Kentucky earlier this year. 

While the Belmont Stakes may not be as well-known as the other Triple Crown races, there is still plenty of money to be made. Journalism and Sovereignty are deserving favorites, but this race is far from secured for the outright favorites. Preakness Stakes winner, Journalism, is favored slightly over Kentucky Derby winner, Sovereignty, for this race. While taking down not one, but two major race winners will be no easy task for the underdogs, stranger things have happened in the world of horse racing. 

The 2025 edition of the Belmont Stakes will be vastly different compared to previous races, as the ongoing renovations at Belmont Park will see this race take place at the Saratoga Race Course. As a result, this race will be 1 1/4 miles in length rather than the traditional 1 1/2 mile race. The shorter race distance could allow one of the underdogs to sneak their way onto the podium, or even take home the crown with an outright victory. Here are three underdogs to keep an eye on this weekend, as they have an excellent chance of winning the 2025 Belmont Stakes. 

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Rodriguez: 6-1 (+600)

Rodriguez is coming into the Belmont Stakes with the 4th highest odds to win, but at 6-1 odds, he still offers a fantastic payout on his victory. Rodriguez was scheduled to compete in the 2025 Kentucky Derby and had a great chance to win, but his team was forced to pull him from the race. A quarter crack in his hoof forced him to miss both of the first Triple Crown races, but it is allegedly no longer an issue. The fact that Rodriguez has long odds like these is certainly due to his previous injury, but this is still a price we can get behind. Legendary trainer Bob Baffert has stated it was done with “an abundance of caution,” and there is no reason not to believe him heading into the final Triple Crown race. 

In his most recent race, Rodriguez posted a 128 speed rating during a G2 win at the Wood Memorial two months ago. The 1 1/8 mile race was his longest of the year, and he will need to dig deep with the 1 1/4 mile race this weekend. The shortened Belmont Stakes will improve a horse like Rodriguez’s chances, and this is a great price to buy him at. Baffert is one of the best trainers in the game, and jockey Mike E. Smith will know how to manage his injury. At 59 years old Smith is the most experienced jockey at the Belmont Stakes, and the raw power of Rodriguez makes him the perfect man to tame the steed. At 6-1 odds, Rodríguez is worth a sprinkle. 

Crudo: 15-1 (+1500)

Crudo is a relatively unknown horse heading into the Belmont Stakes, but this is a disrespectful price tag for a horse with his genetics. Crudo is the son of the legendary Justify and has won back-to-back races heading into the weekend. His 122 speed rating will not make national headlines, but his poise with the lead makes him a great contender at the Belmont Stakes. Expected leaders Journalism and Sovereignty have dealt with stamina issues in the past, and this is a great chance for Crudo to take and keep the lead at the Belmont Stakes. Crudo did not qualify for the Preakness Stakes a few weeks ago, but he did win the Sir Barton on the same weekend. He could become the second horse since 2000 to win both the Sir Barton and Belmont in the same year, and everything points towards this middling underdog to finish on the podium. 

Heart of Honor: 30-1 (+3000)

Heart of Honor finished fifth in the Preakness Stakes a few weeks ago, and he will be hoping he can come out on top at the Belmont Stakes. Trained by Jamie Osbourne, Heart of Honor is his primary focus and specializes in races of this length. While he may have finished fifth at Preakness, Heart of Honor finished second in each of his three races before that start. On his back will be Saffie Osbroune, daughter of trainer Jamie. Saffie Osbourne is the youngest jockey at the Belmont Stakes, and she will be eager to become the second female jockey to win, and the first since 1993. Heart of Honor has the straight-line speed needed to keep up with the early contenders, and the stamina to keep that going through the finish line. The shortened race length certainly doesn’t help, but it doesn’t justify 30-1 odds in this eight-horse field. Don’t go crazy, but a Win-Place-Show bet on Heart of Honor will offer a potentially massive payout. 

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