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Best Belmont Stakes Exacta Bets for 2025

by Joey House - 6/5/2025

Best Belmont Stakes exacta bets

As the 157th running of the Belmont Stakes nears on June 7, 2025, at Saratoga Race Course, horse racing fans and bettors are preparing for the exciting finale of the Triple Crown. While win, place, and show bets provide simple ways to participate, exotic wagers like the exacta add a heightened level of thrill and the chance for substantial payouts. This article explores exacta betting for the 2025 Belmont Stakes, covering its definition, how to structure your wagers, top contenders to watch, and strategies to boost your odds of a winning ticket.

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Understanding the Exacta Wager

An exacta bet requires you to predict the first two horses to cross the finish line in the exact order—first place and second place. It's a step up in difficulty from a simple win bet, where you only pick the winner, but the rewards can be significantly higher. For example, a $2 exacta bet on the 2024 Belmont Stakes, won by Dornoch at 17-1 odds with Mindframe second, would have paid out handsomely compared to a basic win wager of $3.60 on Dornoch. The challenge lies in nailing the precise 1-2 finish, but the payout reflects the risk, especially in a competitive field like the Belmont's.

Exactas come in a few forms to suit different betting styles. A straight exacta is the simplest: you pick one horse to win and another to place (e.g., Sovereignty-Journalism, meaning Sovereignty wins and Journalism comes second). For more flexibility, an exacta box lets you select two or more horses to finish first and second in any order. For instance, boxing Sovereignty and Journalism covers both Sovereignty-Journalism and Journalism-Sovereignty outcomes. The trade-off? A $2 exacta box with two horses costs $4, as it covers two combinations. Add more horses, and the cost rises—three horses like Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza (6 combinations) cost $12; four horses like Sovereignty, Journalism, Baeza, and Rodriguez (12 combinations) cost $24, and so on. A middle-ground option is the exacta key, where you lock in one horse first and pair it with others for second (e.g., Sovereignty with Journalism, Baeza, and Rodriguez covers Sovereignty-Journalism, Sovereignty-Baeza, and Sovereignty-Rodriguez for $6 at $2 per combination). Each approach balances risk, cost, and potential reward, making exactas a versatile wager for the Belmont Stakes.

The 2025 Belmont Stakes Context

The Belmont Stakes, dubbed the "Test of Champions," has long been a grueling 1 1/2-mile challenge, a quarter-mile longer than the Kentucky Derby, often the most demanding race these thoroughbreds will face. For 2025, held at Saratoga for the second year due to Belmont Park's $455 million renovation, the distance shifts to 1 1/4 miles, tilting the focus toward speed over endurance. Offering a $2 million purse, the race features a field of eight 3-year-old colts, pitting Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty (2-1 morning-line odds, post 2) against Preakness victor Journalism (8-5 favorite, post 7) in a thrilling showdown. The draw, conducted June 2, 2025, also includes Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Baeza (4-1, post 6), Wood Memorial winner Rodriguez (6-1, post 3), and long shots like Crudo (15-1, post 5), Hill Road (10-1, post 1), Uncaged (30-1, post 4), and Heart of Honor (30-1, post 8).

Key Contenders for Exacta Bets

Sovereignty (2-1, Post 2): Trained by Bill Mott and ridden by Júnior Alvarado, this Godolphin-bred Into Mischief colt stormed to a 1 1/2-length Kentucky Derby win over Journalism, clocking 2:02.31. Skipping the Preakness to rest, he's posted a sharp 1:02.54 five-furlong workout at Saratoga. His closing style suits the 1 1/4-mile distance, and post 2 aligns with a strong historical trend—13 winners have come from this gate. Sovereignty is a prime candidate to key in first, especially if he stalks and surges late.

Journalism (8-5, Post 7): Michael McCarthy's Curlin colt, piloted by Umberto Rispoli, rebounded from a Derby loss to win the Preakness by a half-length despite a rough trip. As the morning-line favorite, he's the only horse running all three Triple Crown legs in 2025, showing durability. Post 7 isn't ideal historically, but his versatility and proven form make him a strong contender for first or second in exacta plays.

Baeza (4-1, Post 6): Trained by John Shirreffs and ridden by Flavien Prat, this half-brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage finished a fast-closing third in the Kentucky Derby. His consistency—never worse than second in his last five starts—makes him a reliable "underneath" pick to place behind a favorite or a long shot, boosting exacta value.

Long Shots to Watch: Rodriguez (6-1, Post 3) brings Bob Baffert's Belmont pedigree (three wins) and a wire-to-wire Wood Memorial score, ideal if he controls the pace. Crudo (15-1, Post 5), sired by Justify, crushed the Sir Barton Stakes and could surprise if he avoids a speed duel. Hill Road (10-1, Post 1), under Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz Jr., won the Peter Pan (G3) and benefits from the inside post, a spot with 24 Belmont winners.

Strategies for Belmont Stakes Exactas

Crafting a winning exacta requires blending analysis and strategy. Study the Field: Sovereignty and Journalism dominate early odds, but Saratoga's "Graveyard of Favorites" reputation—think Upset over Man o' War in 1919—suggests value in long shots. Check recent workouts, pedigree for distance, and jockey-trainer success at Saratoga. Post Position Matters: Inside posts (1, 2, 3) have produced 53 winners historically, favoring Hill Road and Sovereignty. Pace Dynamics: If Rodriguez or Hill Road sets a fast early pace, closers like Sovereignty and Baeza could capitalize. Conversely, a slow pace might let a front-runner like Rodriguez hold for a second.

For betting, a straight exacta, such as 2-7 (Sovereignty over Journalism), is a low-risk but low-reward option if the favorites prevail. An exacta box with 2, 7, and 6 (Sovereignty, Journalism, Baeza) costs $12 for $2 bets and covers all combos, ideal for a tight race. For value, try an exacta key—key Sovereignty in first (2 with 7, 6, 3) for $6, or flip it (7 with 2, 6, 3) to catch Journalism on top. To chase a bigger payout, include a long shot: a $2 exacta key of 2 with 7, 6, 5, 1 (Sovereignty over Journalism, Baeza, Crudo, Hill Road) costs $8 and leverages upset potential.

Suggested Wagers

With $100 to spend, crafting exacta bets for the 2025 Belmont Stakes requires balancing risk, cost, and potential payout. Below, I've outlined a mix of straight exactas, exacta boxes, and exacta keys to leverage the field's favorites—Sovereignty (2-1, post 2) and Journalism (8-5, post 7)—alongside value contenders like Baeza (4-1, post 6) and Rodriguez (6-1, post 3), and a long shot, Crudo (15-1, post 5). All bets are based on $2 units, with costs adjusted to fit the $100 budget, aiming to cover likely outcomes and chase a bigger payout.

  1. Straight Exacta: Sovereignty over Journalism ($30)
    1. Wager: Sovereignty to win, Journalism to place (Sovereignty-Journalism).
    2. Cost: $30 for a $2 base, scaled up for a higher payout.
    3. Logic: Sovereignty's Kentucky Derby win and strong closing speed from post 2 pair well with Journalism's Preakness victory and versatility, making this a likely 1-2 finish. A $2 exacta might pay $10-$15, so $30 could return $150-$225.
  2. Exacta Box: Sovereignty, Journalism, Baeza ($24)
    1. Wager: Box Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza to finish first and second in any order (Sovereignty-Journalism, Journalism-Sovereignty, Sovereignty-Baeza, Baeza-Sovereignty, Journalism-Baeza, Baeza-Journalism).
    2. Cost: $2 per combination, 3 horses = 6 combos, $12 x 2 = $24.
    3. Logic: This covers the top three favorites, with Baeza's consistent closing kick (third in the Derby) adding flexibility. Payouts vary—Sovereignty-Journalism might pay less, but Baeza on top could boost returns to $20-$40 per $2.
  3. Exacta Key: Sovereignty over Journalism, Baeza, Rodriguez ($18)
    1. Wager: Key Sovereignty to win, with Journalism, Baeza, and Rodriguez for second (Sovereignty-Journalism, Sovereignty-Baeza, Sovereignty-Rodriguez).
    2. Cost: $2 per combo, 3 combos = $6 x 3 = $18.
    3. Logic: Sovereignty's form and inside post make him a strong anchor; Journalism and Baeza are reliable, while Rodriguez's front-running Wood Memorial win adds value. Payouts could range from $10-$30 per $2, or $90-$270 here.
  4. Exacta Key: Journalism over Sovereignty, Baeza, Crudo ($18)
    1. Wager: Key Journalism to win, with Sovereignty, Baeza, and Crudo for second (Journalism-Sovereignty, Journalism-Baeza, Journalism-Crudo).
    2. Cost: $2 per combo, 3 combos = $6 x 3 = $18.
    3. Logic: Journalism, the 8-5 favorite, could dominate, with Sovereignty and Baeza as solid place options and Crudo's 15-1 odds offering a shot at a $50-$100+ payout per $2 or $450-$900 for $18.
  5. Exacta Box: Sovereignty, Rodriguez, Crudo ($10)
    1. Wager: Box Sovereignty, Rodriguez, and Crudo to finish first and second in any order (Sovereignty-Rodriguez, Rodriguez-Sovereignty, Sovereignty-Crudo, Crudo-Sovereignty, Rodriguez-Crudo, Crudo-Rodriguez).
    2. Cost: $2 per combo, 3 horses = 6 combos, $12, scaled to $10 for budget.
    3. Logic: Mixing Sovereignty's strength, Rodriguez's pace-setting potential and Crudo's long-shot upset chance (Sir Barton Stakes win) targets a big payout—Crudo combos could hit $50-$150 per $2, or $250-$750 adjusted.

Total Spend: $30 + $24 + $18 + $18 + $10 = $100. This mix bets heavily on favorites Sovereignty and Journalism for safety, includes Baeza and Rodriguez for value, and sprinkles Crudo for a high-reward shot. Monitor pace and odds—if Rodriguez sets a fast tempo, closers like Sovereignty and Baeza thrive; a slow pace might lift Rodriguez or Crudo. Good luck, and we hope to see you cashing some winning tickets on Saturday.

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