2023 Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario and Handicapping
With the horse racing industry bracing itself for the pinnacle of the Triple Crown's triumphant journey, handicappers diligently pour over past performances and race charts, in search of a single valuable clue to aid them in selecting the victor of the esteemed 155th Belmont Stakes. The stalwart handicappers at Docs have done all of the hard work and research so you can wager with confidence.
Here are a few interesting trends to consider before you make your final selections.
- Only two of the last 15 Belmont winners had raced in the Preakness
- Since 1996, half of the Belmont winners had run previously at Belmont Park.
- Only 2 Peter Pan Stakes champions went on to the winner's circle at the Belmont Stakes.
- Favorites are on a 3-race winning streak but have only won 11 of the last 36 Belmont Stakes
- Kentucky Derby Runners that skipped the Preakness have won 10 out of the last 20 Belmont Stakes.
The saying that "pace makes the race" is truer nowhere more than in the Belmont Stakes. The 1 1/2 miles offer a variety of strategic decisions going into the race and then many tactical variations once the action starts. Understanding what the different styles of runners there are is absolutely vital in establishing a solid base for successful handicapping.
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We'll take at each horse, with their post position, and discuss what pace they need to be successful.
1- Tapit Shoes (20-1): A stalker who would benefit from a moderate pace as it would more than likely ensure close proximity to the leaders for a late kick. Also benefiting Tapit Shoes is pedigree for the longer mile and a half. On the downside, he lost a great stalking-run race to Red Route One in the Bath House Row Stakes. That nemesis, along with a higher quality field, make Tapit Shoes the long shot he deserves to be.
2- Tapit Trice (3-1): A stalker/closer in the same manner as his half-brother that he's right beside, Tapit Trice has great stamina pedigree as well. In the Kentucky Derby, he was bumped by a tiring horse right when he was launching his bid to win, and that slight interference forced him quite wide and a disappointing seventh. It is imperative for jockey Luis Saez to get him off the rail as quickly as possible, as this horse does NOT like kickback. When he won the BlueGrass at Keenland at the beginning of April, Saez got him outside quickly. If he can get off the rail here, he stands to make some noise.
3- Arcangelo (8-1): Another stalker who checks off two of the aforementioned trends in that he's run at Belmont Park before (good) but did so by winning the Peter Pan (bad). He's taking a major step up in class from winning the G3 to racing against the likes of Forte, Tapit Trice, and Angel of Empire. It may be asking too much for him to win Saturday, but he could be a factor in the exciting exotics.
4- National Treasure (5-1): One of the two pacesetters in the race, National Treasure got a dream run three weeks ago with a slow pace that enabled him to dictate the race and ride into the winners' circle with a wire-to-wire victory. This could end up being a race for second if that scenario is repeated. However, the Preakness's field severely lacked the quality in competition that is quite abundant here, and he was fading at the end of the 1 3/16 mile. I think National Treasure will be tarnished after Saturday's run.
5- Il Miracolo (30-1): I find it interesting that the two pace setters are side-by-side. He will have the longest odds on the board, and for good reason. He ran five stake races since December, four in the Kentucky Derby prep rotation, and lost all of them by a combined 79 1/2 lengths. He then dropped down to an allowance at Gulfstream Park and won. Somehow this victory encouraged his trainer and owners to enter "The Test of Champions".
6- Forte (5-2): Finally, more than just the small horse racing community will be able to witness the greatness that is Forte. While he was incredibly unfortunate in being scratched on Derby Day, if Forte can triumph over this field, his legacy could start to be validated. A stalker in the classic sense, he should be right around the frontrunners all race long. He has already defeated the toughest competition in the race and is, quite simply, the horse to beat.
7- Hit Show (10-1): A stalker who ran a great race, but still finished 5th, in the Kentucky Derby, Hit Show now has a chance to upset the racing world. However, the pace in the Derby was much brisker than the one that is expected in the Belmont, so I expect very little in this son of Candy Ride.
8- Angel of Empire (7-2): If this race shapes up as expected, I think Angel of Empire will be Forte's greatest competition. His pedigree and training have all been pointing toward route races such as the Derby and Belmont. Keeping close to the front shouldn't be hard for jockey Flavien Prat with the modest pace that is projected. If that's the case, we could be in for quite a duel between this son of Classic Empire and Forte.
9- Red Route One (15-1): Red Route One is a closer who ran a very intelligent race in the Preakness, using tactical speed to change gears. All of this expertise was for naught, as he was bested by National Treasure by 4 3/4 lengths. Against the tougher competition in this field, I see him as being a non-factor.
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