Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

2025 Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario and Handicapping

by Joey House - 6/3/2025

Belmont Stakes pace scenario

Race Overview and Pace Dynamics

The 157th Belmont Stakes is scheduled for June 7, 2025, and this year, it will take place at Saratoga Race Course instead of Belmont Park due to major track renovations. This prestigious $2 million Grade 1 race will cover 1¼ miles and features a competitive field of eight horses. Among the standout contenders are Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty, who has morning-line odds of 2-1, and Preakness winner Journalism at 8-5. Other notable entries include Baeza (4-1), Rodriguez (6-1), and Hill Road (10-1). A crucial factor in this race will be the pace, especially for Sovereignty, a horse known for his deep-closing style that thrives when the early fractions are fast. Understanding how the race's tempo plays out will be key for all the horses, particularly in how it might benefit Sovereignty.

Get sports picks for every league and nearly every matchup on Doc’s free picks page.

Sovereignty: The Art of Closing

Sovereignty, a striking bay colt by Into Mischief, has solidified his standing as a top contender for 2025 with an impressive victory in the Kentucky Derby on May 3, where he stormed from the 16th position in a 19-horse field to nab the win by 1½ lengths over Journalism, clocking in at 2:02.31 on a muddy track. His stellar Equibase score of 103 and Beyer Speed Figure of 98 reflect his impressive late kick, as seen in his final three-eighths time of 37.75 and last furlong in 12.71 seconds. Under trainer Bill Mott, Sovereignty opted to skip the Preakness, giving him a well-deserved five weeks to rest leading into the Belmont. Although he finished fourth in a sprint at Saratoga last year, that experience should help him, yet his late-running style faces an uphill battle at a venue where deep closers typically struggle. Since 2020, only 8% of races at Saratoga's 1¼-mile distance have been won by deep closers, compared to 54% for pressers and stalkers and 38% for front-runners. For Sovereignty to succeed, he'll need a fast pace in front of him to kick off his rally effectively.

Throughout his campaign, Sovereignty has shown remarkable consistency with his closing speed. He won the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense Stakes by five lengths, closing in 36.74 seconds. In his 3-year-old debut at the Fountain of Youth Stakes, he made a spectacular last-to-first rally, finishing the last three furlongs in 37.68 seconds. Even in the Curlin Florida Derby, where he placed second, he made a strong late charge despite encountering a sluggish pace. However, his running style does have its risks, particularly regarding traffic and maintaining a good path without losing ground due to wider runs. In the Derby, he managed to find clear room despite going wide, so a smaller field in the Belmont could work to his advantage in terms of less congestion, but he still must remain closer to the leaders.

Pace Setup and Key Contenders

A reliable pace projection suggests we see a moderate to fast pace led by Rodriguez, a front-runner trained by Bob Baffert. He displayed impressive speed with a wire-to-wire victory in the Wood Memorial at 1⅛ miles. However, a two-month layoff and a minor foot issue raise some questions about his fitness. With Mike Smith aboard, Rodriguez could set fractions akin to what we saw in the 2024 Travers (23.8 seconds for the first quarter, 48.0 seconds for the half), but he may face pressure from Crudo (15-1), another front-runner coming off a win in the Sir Barton Stakes. A speed duel between these two could tire them out, opening the door for closers like Sovereignty or stalkers like Journalism and Baeza to make their moves.

Journalism, trained by Michael McCarthy, has excelled as a stalker. His impressive Preakness victory, overtaking Gosger, and a strong showing in the Santa Anita Derby reveal his ability to sit just off the pace and then finish with authority. His close second to Sovereignty in the Derby demonstrates his competitiveness, and with Umberto Rispoli riding, he looks poised to run well. Baeza, who is the half-brother of 2023 Derby winner Mage, shows a similar stalking style. His third-place finish in the Derby came after a strong performance in the Santa Anita Derby. With Flavien Prat back in the saddle, Baeza could take advantage if the pace gets too heated up front. Hill Road (10-1), another closer, will need a blistering pace to be in contention, while longshots Heart of Honor (30-1) and Uncaged (30-1) don't seem likely to impact the race, despite Heart of Honor's potential for a late rally.

Handicapping the Pace

The outcome of the 2025 Belmont Stakes is heavily dependent on the early pace. If Rodriguez and Crudo push each other in a fast, contested environment, Sovereignty can capitalize on tiring leaders over a distance he's proven he's capable of handling. Conversely, a slower pace could be detrimental to his chances, especially since Saratoga's track bias tends to favor horses that run forwardly. Journalism and Baeza, with their adaptability to different tempos, appear to be strong contenders. Journalism's blend of speed and stamina makes him the horse to beat, particularly if he can track a moderate pace. Baeza could provide great value if the front-runners push too hard. While Sovereignty definitely poses a threat, his success hinges on Junior Alvarado keeping him closer to the pace to counteract Saratoga's challenging trends for closers. As for Hill Road and the long shots, their chances are slim unless something unpredictable happens during the race.

Get expert sports picks on every game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent Belmont Stakes Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers