Best Belmont Stakes Trifecta Bets for 2023
When it comes to horse racing, many recreational players dream of jackpot-style payouts. The only way to get this sort of ROI is to play the exotics, the trifectas, and the superfectas. By picking the first, second, and third-place finishers (and fourth-place for superfectas), you can maximize your payouts with a minimum investment. At the 2022 Belmont Stakes, a $1 trifecta bet on Mo Donegal, Nest, and Skippylongstocking returned an impressive $187.50, showcasing the potential for substantial financial gains. Whether you're a seasoned gambler or a novice seeking excitement, trifecta betting presents a thrilling opportunity to combine skill, strategy, and a touch of luck at the racetrack.
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Addition by Subtraction
When first analyzing a big race like the Belmont, many handicappers like to start off by eliminating the horses they don't believe have a realistic chance of winning. Knocking down the 9-horse field by three or four runners not only reduces the amount of effort needed in research but also greatly decreases the investment to properly wager on the race.
With that in mind, the first horse I'm discarding is Il Miracolo. He'll more than likely have the longest odds on race day, but that isn't my reason for that selection. He's expected to be one of the two pace-setters on Saturday, but his best Equibase Speed Figure of 84 is at least 20 points off the slowest Belmont winner. This makes him a pacesetter who isn't very fast.
The second runner to throw out is Hit Show. Manny Franco said Hit Show had a dream trip but just got beat by better horses. This field is just as good, skill-wise, as the Derby.
The next two horses that won't factor in the winner's circle are National Treasure and Red Route One. In the last 20 Belmont Stakes, only three times did the winner run in the Preakness. Two of those winners, American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018) won the Triple Crown. In addition, both of these horses have already been defeated by Forte last year in Futurity (Red Route One) and Breeders' Cup Juvenile (National Treasure). Asking them to beat Forte on short rest is a tall task.
The 5th horse to scratch off as a winner is Tapit Shoes. If the Belmont truly is "The Test of Champions", I would expect my champion to have a better record of one win in his five previous races. He hasn't done very well against the competition he's encountered, and now he's being called up against some of the best three-year-olds on the planet.
So, now we're down to a much more manageable four horses to seriously handicap. I think Arcangelo is the weakest of this group. He won his last time out in the Peter Pan (G3), but the step up in competition should be too much for him to handle.
Forte and His Amigos
Whittling down the horses, we're left with what we knew all along: Forte is something special. When a horse is hyped this much, I try to find a flaw or weakness, a reason not to bet them. But Forte checks all of the boxes. Both he and Tapit Trice are trained by Todd Pletcher, who is the winningest trainer at the Belmont Stakes since 2013. Forte's jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr., is not only the leading North American jockey in winnings and winning percentage but also is the defending champion and two-time winner of "Run for the Carnations". Hell, he even checks off the box of "5 out of the last 10 Belmont Stakes winners had previous experience at Belmont", as Forte and Arcangelo are the only horses in the field to have run before at Belmont. The only area that gives me pause is his injury and how much it might have affected his training.
The Wagers
Another benefit of reducing the pool of winners is it allows you to make larger wagers. Last year's trifecta paid $187.50 on a $1 bet. Using my system, we could have doubled that because we're investing $2 a wager vs. $1.
While I really think that this is Forte's race to lose, the strategy that I'm going to employ gives me a little protection in case he falters a bit. The ideal scenario, for profit maximization, would be for Tapit Trice to win, Angel of Empire to place, and then the biggest longshot to show in third.
2023 Belmont Stakes Trifectas
$2: 2,6,8 with 2,6,8 with all = $84.00
So, in order to cash this ticket some combination of Tapit Trice, Forte, and Angel of Empire MUST finish in first and second place. Literally any horse can show, as long as two of those three horses finish in the top two spots.
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