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Best Belmont Stakes Trifecta Bets: Analysis and Expert Predictions

by Chris Vasile - 6/3/2021

American Pharoah, racehorse

With every passing day and every single horse race that’s run, there are horseplayers out there dreaming of connecting big on a trifecta or superfecta. The payouts of these two extremely difficult-to-hit betting options can sometimes be amazing if the right combination of horses hit. If they don’t and you are left with chalk filling out the tote board, the payout will likely be less than what you wagered, and you’ll be left feeling empty and incomplete. This why I am writing this article. I want to help you find that perfect trifecta combination so that you too can actually show a solid return on your investment once the two-and-a-half-minute race is over. Good luck.

The Pletcher Connection

Todd Pletcher is one of the best trainers in all of thoroughbred horse racing. He owns more than 5,000 wins and will continue to train horses for the next 10+ years, which will inflate that win total and then some. He’s no stranger to big races, either as he’s won two Kentucky Derbies, including the 2010 and 2017 edition, and three Belmonts (2007, 13, 17). He’s also got a handful of Canadian Triple Crown races under his belt and a handful of Breeders’ Cup Stakes races to boot. This year he sends out three horses, led Known Agenda, 6/1 on the morning line odds. Known Agenda will leave from stall six on race day and will be ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr.

The second Pletcher horse that I’m fond of is the No. 1 horse, Bourbonic. Bourbonic followed up three wins in a four-race span with a 13th place finish at the Kentucky Derby. It was a race where the horse simply did not fire off well, and he never really got going or had the chance to leave make his mark on the race. If you throw that race out, you have a talented horse that lit up the tote board at the Wood Memorial when he beat stablemate Dynamic One at a price of 72/1. Bourbonic should have the race set up nicely for his style of race with no real pacesetters to chase down. The fractions should be reasonable, and Bourbonic’s quick turn of foot shot have him in good stead coming down the home stretch. 

As for the third Pletcher horse entered into this race, it’s Overtook, and he’ll be leaving from post-position eight. He will be ridden by Manuel Franco. Overtook has had a first-, second- and third-place finish in his last three starts, but he has yet to show his ability. He could very well be sitting on a big race in the Belmont as blinkers have been added and he’s -- according to his connections – “training much more enthusiastically than normal”. For what that’s worth, I’m not sure, but why not take a shot?

To round of the trifecta, you can essentially put anyone else in for third as the ticket would look something like this:

$1 trifecta – 1, 6, 8 with 1, 6, 8 with All
$1 trifecta – 1, 6, 8 with ALL with 1, 6, 8
1$ trifecta – All with 1, 6, 8 with 1, 6, 8

Each ticket would cost $36 to play for a total of $108

Not a Pace Race

The post-position draw for the Belmont happened on Tuesday, and we found out that morning-line favorite, Essential Quality, will be leaving from stall two. Given what we know about Essential Quality’s run style, if he breaks out of the gate well, he should be able to get up to mid-pack as the field approaches the first turn and stalk the leaders. The biggest question marks are which horse will be the pace-setter and what the fractions will be. With this race, we don’t have many horses that prefer to get on the lead and try to wire-to-wire the field. Essential Quality does have speed to burn, and we’ve seen that in spades in all four of his wins so far in his career. Given the opportunity to have first or second run at the leaders, who figure to set average fractions, Essential Quality might be the best option to include in the trifecta wagering

Just to his outside in stall four is Hot Rod Charlie, who I liked more in the Derby, with morning line odds of 7/2, which makes him the third favorite. The colt by Oxbow (Preakness Stakes winner) has the right pedigree needed to get the Belmont distance. And if I’ve learned anything in the build-up to this race, it’s that the pace is going to be slow and the stalking horses could have the best chance at reeling in the leaders. Hot Rod Charlie performed admirably in the Kentucky Derby, finishing third, and he showed us a very quick turn of foot and that he doesn’t mind sitting off the pace. If Flavien Prat can work out a stalking trip and have him turning for him with a horse or two to charge down, he should be able to make the trifecta ticket and help you out.

And lastly, I’ll take a shot with Bourbonic to hit the board and boost up the payout. I already wrote about the reasons I like him above. Therefore, for the sake of space, we’ll keep it at that.

The trifecta ticket on Belmont Day.

$1 Trifecta – 1,2,4 box.

Cost: $6.

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